NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

December Obs & Discussions

+21
Math23x7
essexcountypete
1190ftalt
kalleg
CPcantmeasuresnow
WDrag
phil155
Frank_Wx
hyde345
docstox12
frank 638
jmanley32
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
aiannone
heehaw453
weatherwatchermom
billg315
dkodgis
sroc4
amugs
25 posters

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty December Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:11 am

Folks,

Here we are on the 1st day of meteorological winter an dit feels like it for sure with temps in teh upper 30's to low 40's and wind chillsin the 30's all day.

What will December be like good ol' days of cold with th epotential for snows - notice the plurals are a dumpster fire as we have experinced before.

Snow showers in the region:

December Obs & Discussions Inxr1Knyca_h


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:13 am

Lets see how they do with this map:

December Obs & Discussions Cpc_fi10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:07 am

amugs wrote:Lets see how they do with this map:

December Obs & Discussions Cpc_fi10

These maps are the stupidest attempts at a forecast IMHO.  Its not even a real forecast.  And riddle me this...what the heck is "Equal chances" mean?  To me it would mean its the battle zone for above or below normal.  So is that a 50/50 shot for a given location within that zone?  If so lets take a peak at the legend at the bottom.   The lightest shade of blue they are giving a 33-40% chance of being below normal; whereas, the lightest shade of orange is 33-40% chance of above normal.  So once again what the heck does "Equal chances" actually mean if there is a less than 50/50% chance of above or below normal in the zones above and below the "equal chances" zone?  Again its really stupid how they do it and its not a forecast.  Its a cop out at a forecast.  

That is all... Neutral scratch geek

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7650
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

amugs likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:29 pm

Already I had a half-hearted dusting this morning.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1979
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Lets see how they do with this map:

December Obs & Discussions Cpc_fi10

These maps are the stupidest attempts at a forecast IMHO.  Its not even a real forecast.  And riddle me this...what the heck is "Equal chances" mean?  To me it would mean its the battle zone for above or below normal.  So is that a 50/50 shot for a given location within that zone?  If so lets take a peak at the legend at the bottom.   The lightest shade of blue they are giving a 33-40% chance of being below normal; whereas, the lightest shade of orange is 33-40% chance of above normal.  So once again what the heck does "Equal chances" actually mean if there is a less than 50/50% chance of above or below normal in the zones above and below the "equal chances" zone?  Again its really stupid how they do it and its not a forecast.  Its a cop out at a forecast.  

That is all... Neutral scratch geek

Even aside from the uselessness of the "equal chances" aspect, this map substantively doesn't even seem that reflective of what the models are showing/hinting at presently. Interestingly, The Weather Channel December outlooks map is like an inverse of this (and more in line with what the models are showing). i.e. Shows western ridge-eastern trough type pattern with below normal temps in the Midwest and East and above normal out west.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3935
Reputation : 184
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 48
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:31 am

🥶🥶27* this morning..real feel 20...🥶🥶 Feels good to have some cold!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3327
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 58
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:32 am

15 degrees at 6 am this Monday morning
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1979
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:59 am

17.5 this morning.  Felt like end of December/early January

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2867
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:21 am

Low 20s this morning here. Thick layer of frost to deal with on my car. Midweek warm-up on tap, but then we should be returning to a colder regime this weekend.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3935
Reputation : 184
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 48
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:08 am

22.5* for a low here last night. Felt wintry.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4536
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:40 am

25* for a low, the grass was sparkly and crispy from the frozen dew. No wind either, so it actually felt kind of nice being properly bundled up and walking down to the bus stop this morning.

Man, that wind on a cold day changes everything! It's like humidity/dewpoint in the summer time.

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1027
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 49
Location : Bayville, NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:56 am

Friday night into Saturday as of now won't amount to much w.r.t. to precip.  The s/w becomes a shredded mess due to the building H pressing on it. Models are coming into agreement on that.  I'll give it until tomorrow afternoon, but very unlikely to produce much besides a few flakes...

December Obs & Discussions Shredd11
December Obs & Discussions Shredd10

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2867
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:09 am

^^^ Unless the ridge pops more like what Euro was showing a few days ago. This ridge won't cut it.

December Obs & Discussions Ridgee10

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2867
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:18 pm

46* with light rain currently. In short: Yuck.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3935
Reputation : 184
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 48
Location : Flemington, NJ

Dunnzoo and weatherwatchermom like this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:34 pm

A few scattered showers earlier, and 53*, feels like April

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4613
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 61
Location : Westwood, NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:41 pm

I sure hope I get stuck in the center of a west to east death band of snow this winter like I am this rain, how long is this going to rain for? It seems endless. I need to get packages in the mail tomorrow (too big for bags) and they cannot get wet ugg.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19243
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:56 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Canadian Coup?  pirat  GEM model has been fairly consistent with a coastal low developing late weekend while GFS & Euro are just beginning to sniff out the potential. Regardless, a volatile pattern is taking shape for the Northeast heading into mid-December with surprises in store.

December Obs & Discussions Gem_5010

heehaw453 wrote:Sunday night threat a storm redevelopment with a hard left lean on the EPS indicative of Atlantic blocking. May not work out, but definitely worthy of attention.

December Obs & Discussions Eps51

I figured since I was basically posting a weenie-map, I ought to keep it ought of long range (it might even belong in banter still lol), but SoulSing's and heehaw's posts got me a bit distracted, and I had to check it out. This is the latest from the Canadian model, and it definitely got an "Oh!" out of me. And we actually now are in the 5-7 day window, so I thought it might perk up the crowd up a bit.  According to the surface maps that created this lovely vision below, all points south of the NJ/NY border will start off as rain (except the very NW portion of NJ, which start as snow).

December Obs & Discussions Cmc12_10

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1027
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 49
Location : Bayville, NJ

kalleg and weatherwatchermom like this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:18 pm

oh! Of course I know things change as we get closer to the date but this looks like some snow is on the menu-no piddly stuff neither
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1979
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by frank 638 Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:51 pm

58° out foggy it’s nasty out. Anybody else noticed certain trees has flowers growing on them already what is this Easter instead of Christmas coming lol

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2613
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 39
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:16 pm

frank 638 wrote:58° out foggy it’s nasty out. Anybody else noticed certain trees has flowers growing on them already what is this Easter instead of Christmas coming lol

Did not notice..but I almost put in the air today. 😢59 and gloomy..I am ready to sit in front of the tree with hot chocolate not an ice tea..


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3327
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 58
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by frank 638 Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:09 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
frank 638 wrote:58° out foggy it’s nasty out. Anybody else noticed certain trees has flowers growing on them already what is this Easter instead of Christmas coming lol

Did not notice..but I almost put in the air today. 😢59 and gloomy..I am ready to sit in front of the tree with hot chocolate not and ice tea..
You got that right it’s almost Winter . At this point I will take Temperatures in the 30s for the high

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2613
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 39
Location : bronx ny

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:57 am

Regarding Sunday night threat a big difference between the Euro and GFS is the strength of the s/w coming down from the upper midwest. GFS is strengthening it while the Euro keeps is rather weak. The orientation of the ridge is the difference in my opinion.  That's the difference between Hudson Valley getting up to half a foot or a few inches. Below Rt 78 my expectations for this are maybe a coating. If the trajectory the ULL doesn't go further south this won't work out for anyone below rt 80.  Watch the ULL strength and trajectory and the ridge axis to its west IMO. 
December Obs & Discussions Euro69
December Obs & Discussions Gfs88

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2867
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:15 am

Plenty of cold air starting Sat and beyond. I didn’t see it coming until this morning. In about a week from now there is another chance for snow. We are off to the races.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1979
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

heehaw453 and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:40 am

It's early, but pretty paltry so far.  Let's get this picked up a bit!
December Obs & Discussions Snowfa16

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2867
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:26 pm

Energy comes ashore tonight, 0z should have a better idea but by 12z manana well have a good handle on Sunday into Monday. Interior fairs to do best as per climb but a 50 mile shift SE could donwonders down to I78 for a whitening.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14181
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

December Obs & Discussions Empty Re: December Obs & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum