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December Obs & Discussions

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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:25 am

I don't think the possibility of snow showers on the back-side of this system is off the table at all with the cold air that will be crashing in. May not accumulate much in some areas, but I think you could see some scattered flakes flying at the end even down to the coast.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:32 am

If the GFS is to be believed there's a lot of mid-level energy swinging through as the 500mb trough is pushing through and crashing temps.

The temps won't be an issue at the mid and lower levels.  The surface would be the last to crash and of course that's the one that affects accumulations.  This is a lot of mid-level moisture that would have to swing through.  No question there would be minor accumulations NW of 95 with this setup.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:34 pm

amugs wrote:Real possibility for our shore folks
Ya the wind is going to be nuts and for a good 12 hrs or more I think (fluctuating from time to time, the passage of the front being the most intense), with all the rain should not have any problem mixing down unfortunately. Honestly I could care less about the wind if its pouring rain out, its when I can go outside and feel its raw power that I relish. Plus no one needs lights out for xmas eve or day.  I see HWW criteria being likely. Coastal flooding def too. The winds do a crazy shift too and it looks to be two rounds of 50+ mph gusts, maybe 60+ with front.
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Post by phil155 Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:Real possibility for our shore folks
Ya the wind is going to be nuts and for a good 12 hrs or more I think (fluctuating from time to time, the passage of the front being the most intense), with all the rain should not have any problem mixing down unfortunately. Honestly I could care less about the wind if its pouring rain out, its when I can go outside and feel its raw power that I relish.  Plus no one needs lights out for xmas eve or day.  I see HWW criteria being likely. Coastal flooding def too. The winds do a crazy shift too and it looks to be two rounds of 50+ mph gusts, maybe 60+ with front.

Really hoping power stays on especially seeing how cold it will get

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:00 pm

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:Real possibility for our shore folks
Ya the wind is going to be nuts and for a good 12 hrs or more I think (fluctuating from time to time, the passage of the front being the most intense), with all the rain should not have any problem mixing down unfortunately. Honestly I could care less about the wind if its pouring rain out, its when I can go outside and feel its raw power that I relish.  Plus no one needs lights out for xmas eve or day.  I see HWW criteria being likely. Coastal flooding def too. The winds do a crazy shift too and it looks to be two rounds of 50+ mph gusts, maybe 60+ with front.

Really hoping power stays on especially seeing how cold it will get
Ya no kidding, being there's no leaves on the trees I think it will be much less of a issue than say when there is foliage. But once you top 55 or so that can cause branches etc. to go. We will see what SR shows in terms of wind but I think it may verify being such a powerful dynamic system its enormous if you look at the 850mb wind map (theres a period of 75+ kt 850mb winds over the area for a pretty long period, so that easily translates to 60moh or so..) and then 40-50 for even longer duration on Thursday and after the front passes on Friday.  It literally has strong winds from the Midwest into Canada into Maine down to Carolinas.  I am just as bummed as everyone this would been a epic blizzard for us. Everything I could want and I would loved the wind in a snowstorm, its fun haha. I have ski goggles, nice thermal snowsuit, I look ridiculous being out like that in Yonkers probably but who cares lol.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:59 pm

This couldn’t be more depressing weather wise. Two times in three years we get the mother of all GLC’s right before Christmas to wipe away the white Christmas week some of us to the N and W have enjoyed.

Still not quite as bad as 2020 when I had 10 inches of snow wiped off the face of the earth during a similar event on Christmas Eve Night. You can’t make it up.

Time to go back to snow rehab.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:18 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This couldn’t be more depressing weather wise. Two times in three years we get the mother of all GLC’s right before Christmas to wipe away the white Christmas week some of us to the N and W have enjoyed.

Still not quite as bad as 2020 when I had 10 inches of snow wiped off the face of the earth during a similar event on Christmas Eve Night. You can’t make it up.

Time to go back to snow rehab.

16 degrees, clear and calm.
CP, you can go heavy on the egg nog Christmas day.Or a few shots of bourbon! It is a bitter pill to swallow this scenario.But, like a kidney stone, "this too shall pass"!ON to January!!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:35 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This couldn’t be more depressing weather wise. Two times in three years we get the mother of all GLC’s right before Christmas to wipe away the white Christmas week some of us to the N and W have enjoyed.

Still not quite as bad as 2020 when I had 10 inches of snow wiped off the face of the earth during a similar event on Christmas Eve Night. You can’t make it up.

Time to go back to snow rehab.

16 degrees, clear and calm.
CP, you can go heavy on the egg nog Christmas day.Or a few shots of bourbon! It is a bitter pill to swallow this scenario.But, like a kidney stone, "this too shall pass"!ON to January!!
Oy I just had a traumatic memory as I have had two both had to have surgical procedures. Worst pain in my life and they make me try to pass it for months before they did procedures. There were days I couldn't move. If you are comparing the missing of a snowstorm to THAT, you guuys got some issues I cannot even begin to understand lol. CP take it easy my man, your gonna get the big one you know it it just may take some time but xmas snow has not been a thing as of late and we all knew it was likely too good to be true. Yeah it stinks, and the fact how cold it is go feel on Sat makes it even worse.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:37 am

17 was the low this morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:01 am

Regardless of anyones upset to the impending storm it is still going to be very impactful on the region, mainly the coastabut even in land. 3km NAM is showing 305 inches of rain ()ugg what a slap in the face) and 50+ mph wind gusts for almost a 24 hr period which will def cause some issues sadly. Don't shoot the messenger, looking at you CP : ) Just a lighthearted jab, but I know how frustrated you are and don't want to hear about what this storm will do versus what could have been. It does not ever get any easier to get let down does it.
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Post by billg315 Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:Regardless of anyones upset to the impending storm it is still going to be very impactful on the region, mainly the coastabut even in land. 3km NAM is showing 305 inches of rain ()ugg what a slap in the face) and 50+ mph wind gusts for almost a 24 hr period which will def cause some issues sadly. Don't shoot the messenger, looking at you CP : ) Just a lighthearted jab, but I know how frustrated you are and don't want to hear about what this storm will do versus what could have been.  It does not ever get any easier to get let down does it.

Holy Crap. The 3km NAM is showing"305 inches of rain"???? I need to start building my ark. lol. (think you might have a typo there Jman! haha)
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:27 am

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Regardless of anyones upset to the impending storm it is still going to be very impactful on the region, mainly the coastabut even in land. 3km NAM is showing 305 inches of rain ()ugg what a slap in the face) and 50+ mph wind gusts for almost a 24 hr period which will def cause some issues sadly. Don't shoot the messenger, looking at you CP : ) Just a lighthearted jab, but I know how frustrated you are and don't want to hear about what this storm will do versus what could have been.  It does not ever get any easier to get let down does it.

Holy Crap. The 3km NAM is showing"305 inches of rain"???? I need to start building my ark. lol. (think you might have a typo there Jman! haha)
LMAO yes 3-5 opps, now 2-4 this morning. Jesus can you imagine 305 inches rain. Converted to snow over 3000 inches, even I don't want that much snow at once, I doubt anyone would.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:24 am

Lordy so disappointing, 3km NAM shows 3 hr rain rates for a majority of the area 2-4 inche rates during the most intense part of the storm, my shift A at work of course is 12:30-8:30 tomorrow so though it wont be the worst of it yet it is not gonna be a fun ride home. I think the worst of it will be late tomorrow night through most of friday, then comes the temp plunge just for a additional slap to the head.  Regardless I hope you all have a happy holiday or make the best of it, especially those that are really having a rough time with this disappointment for 3rd year in a row. Thanks to those wishing my daughter well, she is still sick with flu but slowly improving, fever is lower but going on a week now. Been very well behaved and staying in her room 90% of the time. For a 9 yo that is very hard. Good thing santa was good to her this year, I think she will be happy. But may not make it to her grandparents Sat at this point looks bleak as she needs to be fully well.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:00 am

GFS getting a bit more aggressive on the frontal passage snow.  I think c-1" very possible NW of I-95.  Whatever falls will be around for Christmas Morning.

December Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs109

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Post by phil155 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:02 am

I thought we were looking at 1-1.5 inches of rain for most of the area

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:10 am

phil155 wrote:I thought we were looking at 1-1.5 inches of rain for most of the area
We will.  This is after the rain turns to snow in a flash freeze.  How much accumulates is up for debate. Think many along and NW of I95 will see snow.  The more NW the more potential for accumulations.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:28 am

heehaw453 wrote:
phil155 wrote:I thought we were looking at 1-1.5 inches of rain for most of the area
We will.  This is after the rain turns to snow in a flash freeze.  How much accumulates is up for debate. Think many along and NW of I95 will see snow.  The more NW the more potential for accumulations.
The latest briefing from NWS says over 2 inches locally 3. and they upped wing gusts as of 6am. Maybe NJ won't see as much rain but if SR NAM verifies we are in for ALOT of rain, hopefully we can get that changeover.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/12212022_amPUBLIC.pdf
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:31 am

heehaw453 wrote:GFS getting a bit more aggressive on the frontal passage snow.  I think c-1" very possible NW of I-95.  Whatever falls will be around for Christmas Morning.

December Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs109
Isn't it time to look at SR rather than GFS Euro, CMC etc. NAM shows some decent front end (NWS mentions in briefing it is possible) and back end snows N and W. I am not expecting anything here but would be nice to see some mood flakes to end the wrath of nasty weather.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:GFS getting a bit more aggressive on the frontal passage snow.  I think c-1" very possible NW of I-95.  Whatever falls will be around for Christmas Morning.

December Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs109
Isn't it time to look at SR rather than GFS Euro, CMC etc. NAM shows some decent front end (NWS mentions in briefing it is possible) and back end snows N and W. I am not expecting anything here but would be nice to see some mood flakes to end the wrath of nasty weather.
Personally I don't like the mesos until within 24 hours.  I like the NAM 3k especially for an event like this within 18-24 hours.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:46 am

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:GFS getting a bit more aggressive on the frontal passage snow.  I think c-1" very possible NW of I-95.  Whatever falls will be around for Christmas Morning.

December Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs109
Isn't it time to look at SR rather than GFS Euro, CMC etc. NAM shows some decent front end (NWS mentions in briefing it is possible) and back end snows N and W. I am not expecting anything here but would be nice to see some mood flakes to end the wrath of nasty weather.
Personally I don't like the mesos until within 24 hours.  I like the NAM 3k especially for an event like this within 18-24 hours.
Well isnt the start of things within 24 hrs now, I guess the back end is still 48 hrs out. Makes sense, I was thinking about start time not end time, this is going to be a long duration storm, sadly not white. It would be massive if it was.
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:54 pm

The Arctic front I'd going to be memorable as the squall line that developed mybe thunder n rain to a wintry mix wind driven squall.
Wind Advisories up for gusts up to 55 mph late Thursday through Fri Night. Tmps drop Friday morning 30-40 degrees in about 3-4 hours.

Blizzard conditions in ND, visibility down to less than a 1/4 mile and wind chills are.....-55!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:29 pm

amugs wrote:The Arctic front I'd going to be memorable as the squall line that developed mybe thunder n rain to a wintry mix wind driven squall.
Wind Advisories up for gusts up to 55 mph late Thursday through Fri Night. Tmps drop Friday morning 30-40 degrees in about 3-4 hours.

Blizzard conditions in ND, visibility down to less than a 1/4 mile and wind chills are.....-55!!!
Im good with that jeeze...that cold makes the snow no fun to me and where I live the pipes would most definently burst and our drafts are bad as it is. And thats one long 24 hr wind advisry, uncommon for that. Will def case some issues since it is so long duration, I get that it wont be the highest the entire time but with the heavy rain tomorrow night then the front as you said will be ripping along coast, 15 ft waves NWS says wow.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:00 pm

25 degrees, clear, calm.
With that sharp temp drop and instability, there has got to be heavy snow showers.NWS has me for 1/2 inch Friday night.Hope we can get an inch or two area wide.With those cold temps, we will have our White Christmas.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:08 pm

docstox12 wrote:25 degrees, clear, calm.
With that sharp temp drop and instability, there has got to be heavy snow showers.NWS has me for 1/2 inch Friday night .Hope we can get an inch or two area wide. With those cold temps, we will have our White Christmas.
I am rooting for you guys, I highly doubt we see anything down here but it should be interesting when that front hits might be pretty wild.
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:23 pm



Incredible what is somewhat coming our way. 30 - 40 degrees drop in about 3-4 hours is possible.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:48 pm

No flood watch issued for our area in NENJ? Upton late to the party or most likely waiting until tomorrow morning. Have my OEM hat on and town is looking for answers too soon, hoping to have a better answer in the A.M.

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:06 pm

Zoo I know.
2-4"?? Of rain
Flash Freeze Friday looking more likely
Winds 40-55 mph gusts from late Thurs to Fri night = power outages possible
Arctic squall line moves in around 10-11 AM
Early Dismissals possible for school Friday? Maybe

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