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December Obs & Discussions

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:40 am

It's early, but pretty paltry so far.  Let's get this picked up a bit!
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:26 pm

Energy comes ashore tonight, 0z should have a better idea but by 12z manana well have a good handle on Sunday into Monday. Interior fairs to do best as per climb but a 50 mile shift SE could donwonders down to I78 for a whitening.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:51 pm

amugs wrote:Energy comes ashore tonight, 0z should have a better idea but by 12z manana well have a good handle on Sunday into Monday. Interior fairs to do best as per climb but a 50 mile shift SE could donwonders down to I78 for a whitening.

43 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
NWS went colder for the weekend event. no snow mixed with rain Sunday, all snow through the event.Mentions ATJ about an inch during the day.Thinking this will be a 2 maybe 3 inch event.Nice if it happens to help with the Christmas spirit.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:48 pm

docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Energy comes ashore tonight, 0z should have a better idea but by 12z manana well have a good handle on Sunday into Monday. Interior fairs to do best as per climb but a 50 mile shift SE could donwonders down to I78 for a whitening.

43 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
NWS went colder for the weekend event. no snow mixed with rain Sunday, all snow through the event.Mentions ATJ about an inch during the day.Thinking this will be a 2 maybe 3 inch event.Nice if it happens to help with the Christmas spirit.
Hope you get it doc. Take pics.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:43 am

Its a shame the wave spacing between the energy moving across the GL and west coast isnt a tad more spread out.  Reason is because the next wave of energy crashing the west coast is too close.  If it were delayed by just a little bit it would increase the amplitude of the ridge in front of it allowing our energy in the GL to dig and interact more with the energy embedded within the STJ leading to a stronger system further south and more QPF as it hits the coast.  Its so close yet so far.  


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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:48 am

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negative PNA

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WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
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Post by billg315 Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:26 am

The NAM and GFS getting a little serious about some accumulating snow in North Jersey and the Hudson Valley Sunday night. Upper air looks plenty cold so if surface temps drop after sunset Sunday would not surprise me to see some steady snow accumulate in spots especially north of I-80.

Are we talking yet about what the GFS showed this morning for next Saturday? lol
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:23 pm

billg315 wrote:The NAM and GFS getting a little serious about some accumulating snow in North Jersey and the Hudson Valley Sunday night.  Upper air looks plenty cold so if surface temps drop after sunset Sunday would not surprise me to see some steady snow accumulate in spots especially north of I-80.

Are we talking yet about what the GFS showed this morning for next Saturday? lol

N PNA as I have said before we can work with if the overall pattern over head is there ala 93-94 as I depicted in the storm track I posted the other day in the LR.

The Ho Hum about doubt I get earlier this week and said let's wait until midweek and see and the end of the week as well.
Well here we are and I have MUCH faith in our NAO this year and the resulting effects it WILL have on the pattern meaning EPO, Stratosphere Warming Event (SWE), and AO regions and I tie this to ........HUNGA TUNGA HUNGA VEI 6 volcanic explosion which by my math deduction has the water vapor up at the 55th parallel by no won it way to the 60th and may just may be at the 60th already if it increased in speed which is was showing since of from Oct through November. SO may say not a single event but it’s not just that single event but a hemispherical if you actually look at it since it effects the whole hemispherical pattern.

Now with that stated look at what is happened to this system that was a cutter that runs into the block and gets shoved South, hence again the map I posted 2 days ago about the storm track. Friday again and then again maybe next Wednesdayish and Xmas timeframes. Again very ala 93-94. This one has an inverted trough with it and whom ever gets under that in the HV and maybe NNJ /NY state border could get dumped on for an hour to a couple of hours if it comes to fruition. GFS at 12Z which has the vort information inputted and may have a good handle on it now for what is showed in its last run that the NAM started to show last night at 0Z.
Even mood flakes to coast is possible. I80 N sees a whitening of the ground colder spots on I 80 line but with elevation regions and posters seeing the most where it becomes a plow able event IMO for them. The Canadian was on this idea 1st and then the other global models picked up on it. Remember its still early December peeps and as we move forward with this pattern things are going to pop up.
Enjoy the chase.
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EURO SAYS I'LL UP YOU GFS!!!

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Post by hyde345 Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:11 pm

billg315 wrote:The NAM and GFS getting a little serious about some accumulating snow in North Jersey and the Hudson Valley Sunday night.  Upper air looks plenty cold so if surface temps drop after sunset Sunday would not surprise me to see some steady snow accumulate in spots especially north of I-80.

Are we talking yet about what the GFS showed this morning for next Saturday? lol

I don't believe the 12z GFS one bit with late next week's storm. It's a crap model and just too inconsistent. I think the final solution is somewhere in the CMC and Euro camps. Still a week away.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:17 pm

EPS wow that upped the ante a bit for above I80 I'd say in NNJ, LHV amd HV. If it materializes tihs would be a pain come the commute Monday morning.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:12 pm

holy mother of cold!!!!

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:12 pm

WHERE DID IT GO???

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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:28 pm

amugs wrote:EPS wow that upped the ante a bit for above I80 I'd say in NNJ, LHV amd HV. If it materializes tihs would be a pain come the commute Monday morning.

December Obs & Discussions - Page 2 FjjsFepXoAEQZ-3?format=png&name=900x900

40 degrees, clear , slight breeze.
NWS on to you there Mugsy, upping me from 1 1/2- 2 1/2 now to 2-4.Mugsy magic doing it's thing!!


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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Energy comes ashore tonight, 0z should have a better idea but by 12z manana well have a good handle on Sunday into Monday. Interior fairs to do best as per climb but a 50 mile shift SE could donwonders down to I78 for a whitening.

43 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
NWS went colder for the weekend event. no snow mixed with rain Sunday, all snow through the event.Mentions ATJ about an inch during the day.Thinking this will be a 2 maybe 3 inch event.Nice if it happens to help with the Christmas spirit.
Hope you get it doc. Take pics.

J Man, the way this is trending, don't count yourself out there by you.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:46 pm

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Energy comes ashore tonight, 0z should have a better idea but by 12z manana well have a good handle on Sunday into Monday. Interior fairs to do best as per climb but a 50 mile shift SE could donwonders down to I78 for a whitening.

43 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
NWS went colder for the weekend event. no snow mixed with rain Sunday, all snow through the event.Mentions ATJ about an inch during the day.Thinking this will be a 2 maybe 3 inch event.Nice if it happens to help with the Christmas spirit.
Hope you get it doc. Take pics.

J Man, the way this is trending, don't count yourself out there by you.
It would be nice, does look to be trending closer to coast with frozen precip possible. That Euro map does have a few inches over me.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:10 pm

column on 18Z 3k NAM looks cold enough to support snow in my hood Shocked .  pretty good lapse rates too and I'd have to believe this would be moderate/heavy snow for a time as shown.  going to be a close I think around 78...

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:17 pm

heehaw453 wrote:column on 18Z 3k NAM looks cold enough to support snow in my hood Shocked .  pretty good lapse rates too and I'd have to believe this would be moderate/heavy snow for a time as shown.  going to be a close I think around 78...

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So by looking at a map it looks like I-78 runs south of NYC if it continued east from newark and Westchester county so we have a shot at some snow with this?
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:column on 18Z 3k NAM looks cold enough to support snow in my hood Shocked .  pretty good lapse rates too and I'd have to believe this would be moderate/heavy snow for a time as shown.  going to be a close I think around 78...

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So by looking at a map it looks like I-78 runs south of NYC if it continued east from newark and Westchester county so we have a shot at some snow with this?
I trust the thermal profiles of the NAM at about 24 hours out, so not really sure at this point except to say it's going to be close.  But you being above route 80 should see some snow.  a couple inches wouldn't shock me as the mid-levels are cold.

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Post by billg315 Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:35 pm

Looking at the upper air temps on the models I definitely would believe this to be a snowier/less rainier event than initially progged. I think overnight Sunday will be interesting for areas north of I-80 and northwest of I-287 in NJ.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 09, 2022 4:53 pm

billg315 wrote:Looking at the upper air temps on the models I definitely would believe this to be a snowier/less rainier event than initially progged. I think overnight Sunday will be interesting for areas north of I-80 and northwest of I-287 in NJ.
Cool (pun intended) heres to hoping for a few inches or even a nice solid coating for holiday cheer.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 09, 2022 5:09 pm

FWIW the 18z 3km NAM is wetter and has snow further south, has a good 2-4 for my area, for Dec I will take that in a heartbeat, pretty but not terribly hard to clear. Not in the best shape at 41 and shoveling 2 cars out on the street is not fun when we get a big one.
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:32 am

Wakey wakey and get shaky for what is about to come as a snowprise for some!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:46 am

I posted a thread to talk about tomorrows wintry event

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:07 pm

A chilly high temp of 43* down here at Exit 80 GSP. Clear but cold. Not Bismarck, ND cold. Look at their daily “high” temps for next week!

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(Irish! Check your app for next week- mine’s showing accumulating snow from Thursday through Saturday!)

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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:34 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:A chilly high temp of 43* down here at Exit 80 GSP. Clear but cold. Not Bismarck, ND cold. Look at their daily “high” temps for next week!

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(Irish! Check your app for next week- mine’s showing accumulating snow from Thursday through Saturday!)

Yep. That would be in the heart of that arctic outbreak over the conus that mugs has been posting about in the Long Range thread.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:47 am

My my. 7 degrees this morning
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:41 am

19* for my low tis morning - BRRRRR - deep winter feel with a majorly snow covered landscape

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