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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:00 am

Synoptically some players are on the board. Vigorous ULL, significant block around Hudson Bay, 50/50 Low, a western ridge. It's going to come down to how quickly and efficiently the energy transfer takes. The longer and less efficient the more mid-level warmth will occur. Also note mid-level warmth is usually under modelled.

Best chances for snow are NW of I95 with this specifically NW NJ, Hudson Valley and NEPA. It's not far off from being a threat on the I95, but IMO we need the the block be a little tougher resistance on the ULL which will flatten out the trough and mitigate the mid-level warming. Models are starting to show that a bit. Also, note this is not going to be a bomb cyclone because the western ridge isn't ideal.

Beware of snow maps right now too they are going to be meaningless until about 48 hours out with this setup IMO. Let's see what happens here.
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs116

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:27 am

Mount Holly NWS good high level overview for end of week.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Nws13

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:08 am

Truth right there - I 80 N again - IF we can get this down to the VA Capes or redevelopment of the coastal and traject more NE then we shift the Snow/Mix line further south and a bit more NAO/AO press which it is tending to. Don't underestimate the press as I have been saying. You connect that ridge bridge over the top then watch out underneath! Remember this is mid December - all gravy right now.


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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by mikeypizano Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:30 am

heehaw453 wrote:Mount Holly NWS good high level overview for end of week.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Nws13

Looks like I better get the snow blowers ready... I am in the sig protentional circle.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:36 am

amugs wrote:Truth right there - I 80 N again - IF we can get this down to the VA Capes or redevelopment of the coastal and traject more NE then we shift the Snow/Mix line further south and a bit more NAO/AO press which it is tending to. Don't underestimate the press as I have been saying. You connect that ridge bridge over the top then watch out underneath! Remember this is mid December - all gravy right now.


This is a great post Mugs. This will put this general rule to the test for sure. Unfort there is a weakness in central Canada leading to an area of energy dropping into the back side of our system bringing the ULL too far N. I believe Heehaw or Matty Ice pointed this out. A few scenarios that need to sort out in order for the Norm rule to work. We need to go back to when the ridge conbnected over thge top of us in Canada like it did a few days ago. This would bring the ULL to our south.


Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs_z500a_namer_25Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs_z500a_namer_34


Either that or the primary cuts as is currently modeled, but so far N&W that there is a completely separate wave of energy that comes off on the spoke of the original that runs into the potent HP block to our N giving a solid front end thump. Lets see how things shape up over the next few days.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by MattyICE Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:39 am

I kind of thought about that, Scott, where if the primary gets to say Wisconsin, it’s not even really a transfer to a secondary anymore. Rather it’s a new low altogether that forms along a front.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:09 am

This is a CAD signature on 12Z GFS. Note that H in Quebec.  Not retreating or elongating, but remains round.  There will be front end frozen from this in the interior.  Maybe even I95.  IMO.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs93

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:31 am

The trajectory of the mid-level energy is improved.  It's more NE instead of NNE indicative of a track between BM and coast.  Have to see if this is real or just model noise. Synoptically it makes sense to me due the resistance up north, but need to see consistency.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Midlev13

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This is a CAD signature on 12Z GFS. Note that H in Quebec.  Not retreating or elongating, but remains round.  There will be front end frozen from this in the interior.  Maybe even I95.  IMO.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs93

This is exactly it.  This still has a shot and don't discount snow to the coast just yet.  Still a long way off but possible.  As you can see below todays 12z GFS the Low into the N Plains is weaker and further west relative to 06z.  If this trend conts, weaker and further west that would bode good IMO.  





If we can start to trend a little better in the area circled where the HP trends stronger in the are in the circle this would likely lead to the primary weaker and not making as far N and east, AND cause our secondary low to not track quite as close to the coast and further enhance the CAD signature.  A long way to go with this one.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gg10

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:05 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This is a CAD signature on 12Z GFS. Note that H in Quebec.  Not retreating or elongating, but remains round.  There will be front end frozen from this in the interior.  Maybe even I95.  IMO.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs93

That is a stoudt HP over Quebec and teh 50/50 is locking it in. The ridge bridge is making its conection and should strengthen as move closer in time.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:05 pm

I decided to keep SCI at 5% today, but we're not very far from getting I-95 into the accumulated snow zone. As mentioned by others, need a few things to go our way. Right now I'm not too opitimistic.

Thanks for starting a thread, Heehaw!

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Dec 12, 2022 12:29 pm

12z CMC trending towards a larger front end snow dump in I-95 area before changing over to rain.



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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I decided to keep SCI at 5% today, but we're not very far from getting I-95 into the accumulated snow zone. As mentioned by others, need a few things to go our way. Right now I'm not too opitimistic.

Thanks for starting a thread, Heehaw!

This is what I see happening - thats how we can get snow to I95 corridor or a bigger press of cold from the block which is possible as well.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gefs_110
Cold Press N NAO isnt going to erode that cold air but press it further south

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1148800.png.951ce1654720aa5da9d0ade3b7bd345d

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:52 pm

I'd like to see the Euro come on board with the storm moving more S&E.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by billg315 Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:59 pm

Ocean water temperatures continuing to hang around 51* aren't doing us any favors right now either on these close-call coastal systems.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:50 pm

12Z EPS or OP not on board with a SE movement.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Eps55

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:53 pm

heehaw453 wrote:12Z EPS or OP not on board with a SE movement.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Eps55

Yup. GEFS shifted notably east while the EPS came in more tucked to coast at 12z. Naturally lol.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 5:16 pm

The GFS is definitely showing effects of the block more which synoptically makes sense IMO. The issue is the mid-level air mass and how warm it becomes.  This storm isn't going to bomb but if it pulls off shore enough and develops fast enough then it can switch the mid-level winds.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfspng11

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by hyde345 Mon Dec 12, 2022 5:23 pm

18z GFS - Please make it happen. Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Sn10_a15
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by MattyICE Mon Dec 12, 2022 5:24 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The GFS is definitely showing effects of the block more which synoptically makes sense IMO. The issue is the mid-level air mass and how warm it becomes.  This storm isn't going to bomb but if it pulls off shore enough and develops fast enough then it can switch the mid-level winds.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfspng11

Totally agree! But that’s why I’m pessimistic. It’s not one uphill battle, it’s several. As you say, we can get a shift to the point where the track is much improved, but the lack of strength then is still an issue. Then THAT needs resolved.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:03 pm

MattyICE wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The GFS is definitely showing effects of the block more which synoptically makes sense IMO. The issue is the mid-level air mass and how warm it becomes.  This storm isn't going to bomb but if it pulls off shore enough and develops fast enough then it can switch the mid-level winds.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Gfspng11

Totally agree!  But that’s why I’m pessimistic.  It’s not one uphill battle, it’s several. As you say, we can get a shift to the point where the track is much improved, but the lack of strength then is still an issue. Then THAT needs resolved.
Absolutely.  I'm not a fan with the ULL being where it is and the only reason there's a chance is because of the blocking.  It just might not be enough to salvage this for many on this board.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:01 pm

18Z Euro much colder and NNJ almost all snow and mix this run. Caving to the GFS and NAM. Feeling the CAD, press of the block....don't underestimate the block and cold arctic press with a HP over Quebec and locked in. I can see another tick or two SE.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference 4efff910
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference 3db68210
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference 94213a10



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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:14 pm

amugs wrote:18Z Euro much colder and NNJ almost all snow and mix this run. Caving to the GFS and NAM. Feeling the CAD, press of the block....don't underestimate the block and cold arctic press with a HP over Quebec and locked in. I can see another tick or two SE.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference 4efff910
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference 3db68210
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference 94213a10


Yes. There is more consensus on the shift SE.  I noticed RGEM fairly cold too.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:18z GFS - Please make it happen. Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Sn10_a15
Man talk about a cut-off wow, rain here sig snow 15 miles to my north, no gradual increase just goes rain to 6+..
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:41 pm

Note the ULL location in Iowa when it spins energy around the base of its trough. That's a well defined storm spinning pretty good with a decent ridge to its west.  How it flicks off the energy also will affect where this storm goes.  

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference Euro22

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