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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

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HectorO
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:06 pm

Shorties coming into the sweet spot let's see what they have to say.
CP glad to see you back my man, we are getting the band back together. Where be Snowy??

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:55 pm

Madonne…check out this frontogenesis that comes through NEPA and SWNY overnight Thursday. IMO, this should be considered the “jackpot” zone where 8”+ are possible. Already the second snow event for the N&W crew. Very nice!!

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 F942cf10
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 80c95410

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Post by dkodgis Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:01 pm

I graciously accept your “Madonne” and the 8+ inches of snow. I see 34 here when it starts. Of course the upper air will be colder. What my concern is the slop part of the storm and a wee bit of icing. Could be a mushy snow too up here. Heavy means breaking limbs
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:43 pm

0Z NAMS ARE COLDER!!
3K and Regular showing big thump and a slower change over lasting probably 2-3 hours longer in NNJ and LHV before the change over. SLP is in line with GFS Norfolk VA exit and then NE. 0Z GFS up next and Euro. This is what Haw and I have been harping on!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:49 pm



Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Nam3km13



Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Nam3km14



Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Nam3km15



Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Nam3km16

There are the warmest frames which have coolest down a good 20 miles S.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:56 pm

GFS snow maps.  One is 10:1 and the other is positive snow depth delta. 

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Gfs95

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Gfssno14

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 15, 2022 5:19 am

No help here overnight, in fact, wsw now a www.Looking to get maybe 3 inches out of this.So close yet so far,LOL.Monster snowstorm for further north and west where I go trout fishing in Roscoe NY., over a foot predicted.Aside from a last minute jog, this one looks set in concrete.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by Radz Thu Dec 15, 2022 6:25 am

Was hoping for the rain/snow line to set up further SE, still hope to see some snow here in northern Westchester before we flip to heavy rain, some pretty good totals for those far N&W areas like Monticello and Rock Hill!
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 15, 2022 7:40 am

This is why we bring up the ULL location time and time again. Note in the second picture it's into southern MN. If this was going to do a number on our area it would be in southern MO and sliding underneath us.  The air mass is warm at the mid-levels as you can see by the red lines to our west in the first picture. And we don't have a dynamic storm exploding off the coast to offset that.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 850s30
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Ull15

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:12 am

heehaw453 wrote:This is why we bring up the ULL location time and time again. Note in the second picture it's into southern MN. If this was going to do a number on our area it would be in southern MO and sliding underneath us.  The air mass is warm at the mid-levels as you can see by the red lines to our west in the first picture. And we don't have a dynamic storm exploding off the coast to offset that.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 850s30
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Ull15

Very interesting and you have been mentioning this with this storm.Anyway, the long range crew was right about a snowstorm but it is going to be a Catskill special.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:40 am

Snow/sleet 32/28  

Ground is coated.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:23 am

Pretty interesting this morning that the winter storm watch from yesterday has gone to nothing not even in advisory. A dangerous game they’re playing with Orange County. I’m pretty confident at this point western and northern parts of the county especially those over 1000 feet will see warning level snow. I’m also fairly confident the towns along the Hudson at 150 feet will see almost no accumulating snow.

It’s that in between area where Doc and I reside, That should be the real battle ground. At elevations 500 to 700 feet seems to be no man’s land. Just following my weather channel app in the last 12 hours has consistently shown 3 to 4 inches of snow predicted in Highland Mills but it has varied as high as 11 and as low as 2, to reiterate all of this in a 12 hour period. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

The other thing is this debate about how quickly the snow will stick. All of Orange County is still snow-covered from last weekend snow so on those areas I don’t see sticking being a problem. If it snows 6 inches on top of the snow we already have on the ground, and we get nothing on the streets I could care less, snow on the streets is just a nuisance and has to be plowed. If I could get 6 inches on the lawn and don’t have to snow blow even better.

My thinking still for my town is 3 to 4 inches followed by some slop late tonight. How we net out in this will be interesting to say the least.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:32 am

Morning CP!
Reading NWS forecast discussion is like a "War and Peace" length story on Orange County,LOL.Never have seen that in all the years I have lived here.Yep, no mans land for sure on this one.A few miles jog could give us that 6 inches but dialing my hopes down to maybe 3.Just hope after it is all done there is some snowpack left.It has really helped with the Christmas spirit anyhowto see the ground white.
Buckle up, it is gonna be a bumpy ride the next 24 hours up here by us!Got my popcorn ready and a balcony seat!
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by kalleg Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:48 am

NEW HOPE:  Occasional flakes, accumulating enough to be visible on our rock wall and roofs across the street; 34*

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:36 am

You see at the mid-levels from 700-850mb noted by the blue line the snow growth is bad you ideally want to be less than 540 (above the line).  The thickness is workable at the lower levels from 850-1000mb above the red line. It's the CAD working at the lower levels, but cannot force it's way to the mid-levels. Elevation will help compensate for this above 1500'.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Thickn10

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Post by billg315 Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:58 am

36* in Somerville NJ with sleet falling and some snowflakes mixed in. Should go to primarily rain shortly here, but we are getting a little frozen stuff out the outset here.
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:11 pm

Some sleet, now seems to be mostly rain here in Wyoming Valley.
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Post by phil155 Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:12 pm

rain and sleet just started here in edison

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:30 pm

picked up about 1/4" or so of snow/sleet. that'll do it in my neck of the woods.

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Post by 1190ftalt Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:33 pm

Just started snowing in Stillwater at 1190 feet altitude, driveway sticking, 28 degree’s Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Edba6b10
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:44 pm

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Image.gif.e2ff3238f4905b2b7c1ef213c6b0ae1e

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Post by TheAresian Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:51 pm

Checking in from the western frontier. What started as sleet this morning has turned into the damnedest snow. It's not falling heavily, but the snowflakes are more like clumps. Ground still not totally covered yet. Fingers crossed that at least some of you get the white gold.

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Post by CNWestMilford Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:05 pm

This is what it looks like here in West Milford before any precip. Cloudy at the moment. Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 F51ab410Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 F51ab410Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 F51ab410

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Post by phil155 Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:10 pm

plain rain now here in edison

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Post by Artingerb Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:18 pm

Same as CNWestMilford over here in Kinnelon is a waiting game Question
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Outsid10

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:22 pm

Not expecting anything but rain but damn not 25 to 30 miles due north look to get 6 to 12. I got a wind advisory so there's that lol.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Empty Loos like some Virga … radar been showing precip falling for a while now but nada yet.

Post by CNWestMilford Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:26 pm

Artingerb wrote:Same as CNWestMilford over here in Kinnelon is a waiting game  Question
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 5 Outsid10
Looks like Virga… … radar been showing precip falling for  a while now but nothing. Perhaps it’s a good thing?

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