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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by mikeypizano Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:06 pm

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations up to
around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high
as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Oneida, Steuben, Schuyler,
Chemung, Tompkins, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland,
Chenango, Otsego, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan
counties. In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern
Wayne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne
counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and ice amounts will vary greatly
depending on location and elevation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Winter
storm warnings could be issued as the storm gets closer and
confidence increases.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:16 pm

mikeypizano wrote:...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations up to
around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high
as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Oneida, Steuben, Schuyler,
Chemung, Tompkins, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland,
Chenango, Otsego, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan
counties. In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern
Wayne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne
counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and ice amounts will vary greatly
depending on location and elevation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Winter
storm warnings could be issued as the storm gets closer and
confidence increases.
I-81 corridor is the place to be for this one.  Either that or be over 1500' ASL.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by hyde345 Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:48 pm

Obviously I81 corridor is the place to be but I'm not placing all bets on the Euro 48+ hours from event when subtle changes could make a difference. I'm 80 miles North of NYC. Should I be ignoring these?

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Pratep11
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Pratep12
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Ref1km10
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:09 pm

hyde345 wrote:Obviously I81 corridor is the place to be but I'm not placing all bets on the Euro 48+ hours from event when subtle changes could make a difference. I'm 80 miles North of NYC. Should I be ignoring these?

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Pratep11
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Pratep12
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Ref1km10
I'm certainly not saying it's over. Just looking less likely that any decent snow is coming out of this system outside of I-81 or higher elevations east of I81. The h5 isn't anywhere ideal for good snow with this and if this somehow bucks that trend I'm all for it. Personally I'm giving it until tomorrow 12Z before I throw in towel FMBY.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by hyde345 Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Obviously I81 corridor is the place to be but I'm not placing all bets on the Euro 48+ hours from event when subtle changes could make a difference. I'm 80 miles North of NYC. Should I be ignoring these?

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Pratep11
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Pratep12
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Ref1km10
I'm certainly not saying it's over. Just looking less likely that any decent snow is coming out of this system outside of I-81 or higher elevations east of I81. The h5 isn't anywhere ideal for good snow with this and if this somehow bucks that trend I'm all for it. Personally I'm giving it until tomorrow 12Z before I throw in towel FMBY.

I would be happy with 2 or 3 and doubt it would be any more than that given the setup but I still think it will be more than the near zero that the Euro depicts.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:52 pm

Let's see where the CAD actually sets up, if as depicted here then it snowing before a slower changeover to slop.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Fj5jbf10

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:41 pm

18Z Euro says CAD is deep and real.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Fj5uan10

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by dkodgis Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:51 pm

Seems to be trending a bit colder up here in the boonies. This storm practices treachery, snow, freezing rain, icing…the full complement of bad stuff.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:27 am

dkodgis wrote:Seems to be trending a bit colder up here in the boonies. This storm practices treachery, snow, freezing rain, icing…the full complement of bad stuff.

Looks like your right this morning Damian.Maybe a few inches of slop down by me.All becomes rain on Friday near 40.Would rather have all rain or all snow but that's the cards that will be dealt on this one.
22 degrees, clear, calm.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 14, 2022 6:15 am

Window has def seemed to close for this guy.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 14, 2022 6:26 am

sroc4 wrote:Window has def seemed to close for this guy.
Nowcast time coming fast so at this juncture, a turn east becomes more and more unlikely.Even a slight jog of 25 miles would help me, right on the boundry of a WWW.

On to the next one Doc.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:51 am

I have to drive to Boston Fri morning..how bad do you think it will be for that?
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:39 am

If this mid-level energy slides about 100 miles S/E of what 06Z Euro shows, then we're having a much better outcome with this storm for many folks on the board.  Hour 48 and that kind of miss?  This trajectory will create a warm nose very quickly for folks south or east of NEPA/NW NJ.



Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Euro74

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:03 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:I have to drive to Boston Fri morning..how bad do you think it will be for that?

Do not believe you will deal with much wintry weather, but the rain will be heavy at times.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:04 am

sroc4 wrote:Window has def seemed to close for this guy.

For the coast and areas just to the N&W of the City I agree, but members more N&W out toward NEPA and SENY should see a few inches. As I had stated earlier in the week, the CAD/-NAO is more-so protecting the cold in those areas than it is doing anything for us. The H5 pattern is simply not good enough for the coast.


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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:32 am

I am going to say though the low level cold will be tougher to move than what is being modelled right now.  Inland that's not just going to move out of the way quickly.  It'll be stubborn at the surface.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Nam48

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by billg315 Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:10 am

Close call but just too tucked I guess. And still don't like these ocean temps for the coastal folks. But, I feel like we're getting closer. With each passing system the antecedent air mass is a little colder and the setup gets a little better. Maybe we're building toward getting all the right players on the field in time for Christmas. :-)
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:30 am

National blend of models snowfall prog.  Looks about right to me.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Nbm12

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I have to drive to Boston Fri morning..how bad do you think it will be for that?

Do not believe you will deal with much wintry weather, but the rain will be heavy at times.
Thank you Frank! the Xmas party as at the New England Aquarium..so excited..
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:51 am

6Z EURO sees a CAD a litle bit more now as I showed last night in the map I posted.
Coast is toast sadly again but again its Dec and the ocean is warm still 51* is not going to aid in snow chances on a east wind on this but lets see what the 12Z suite of models have to say for NNJ and LHV members. Thinking a quick thump then a gradual transition to slop and then rain (yuck!).

Compliments of Qtown on 33nRain wx board
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1670997600-1671105600-1671278400-40.gif.af9a60bd7ccdedf36fe9a66b2c922828

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:01 am

Not a bad call at this time:

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Fj8ydP1WYAAOA-s?format=jpg&name=medium

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:02 am

EURO still holding onto CAD signal

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Fj8lawPWAAE6ql4?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:06 am

FWIW the 12Z GFS mid-level low trajectory was a bit further S/E and it'd take another tic or two for I95.  Can't rule it out.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:08 am

GFS says I am locked in and keeps the storm trajectory as I have been saying feeling the block more and seeing the CAD more, NNJ and LHV may not be to rainy after all, NAM coming around to this aswell. Time will tell but a much better look for NNJ and LHV, HV crusher as is NE PA!


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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:08 am

heehaw453 wrote:FWIW the 12Z GFS mid-level low trajectory was a bit further S/E and it'd take another tic or two for I95.  Can't rule it out.

NWS slowly bumping me up on snow.Was about an inch for the event yesterday all told, now a possible 3 inches.Slight jog S and E would get me to Mugsy's 4-8 on that map above he posted.Still time for that S and E tick.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:09 am

Haw you and I are on this brother - I am teling you Norm MacDonald Rule is being verified here - who remebers ......NORM???!!!

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:11 am

Look at what happened Sunday peeps - let's see if we can repeat this !!

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 3 Lets-go-the-rock

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