Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:18z GFS - Please make it happen.

Man talk about a cut-off wow, rain here sig snow 15 miles to my north, no gradual increase just goes rain to 6+..

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:41 pm

Note the ULL location in Iowa when it spins energy around the base of its trough. That's a well defined storm spinning pretty good with a decent ridge to its west. How it flicks off the energy also will affect where this storm goes.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Euro22

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:47 pm

CMC and EPS are noticeably SE and colder. Again, DON'T DOUBT CAD NOR THE BLOCK.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:54 pm

The 50/50 low in the Atlantic is really dampening the height fields too between the two troughs. Just looking at this I'd be darned surprised if this was inland runner/coastal hugger. GFS has kind of been showing that too the hard right when it gets to offshore DE.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Height15

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Gfs94

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:55 pm

amugs wrote:CMC and EPS are noticeably SE and colder. Again, DON'T DOUBT CAD NOR THE BLOCK.

I do not doubt it, but I do think these features will protect N&W more so than help S&E. In my mind N&W is a lock for snow, and likely significant at that. Certainly a storm that will warrant its first snow map of the season!

For S&E I need to see more. MORE MUGS MORE

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:CMC and EPS are noticeably SE and colder. Again, DON'T DOUBT CAD NOR THE BLOCK.

I do not doubt it, but I do think these features will protect N&W more so than help S&E. In my mind N&W is a lock for snow, and likely significant at that. Certainly a storm that will warrant its first snow map of the season!

For S&E I need to see more. MORE MUGS MORE

The immediate coast is going be tough. If this thing bombs a bit though and stalls off the coast it would crash the mid-levels. The 50/50 is there to block things up and the ULL the storm comes from is pretty vigorous. Never know...

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:07 pm

Well the RGEM is hearing what I'm putting down Frankie Gamboots

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Fj0qps10

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:CMC and EPS are noticeably SE and colder. Again, DON'T DOUBT CAD NOR THE BLOCK.

Frank it will but the CAD will be stronger
that will aid in overcoming the warmth as well as a weaker primary.

This is me with this storm and last one!!

I do not doubt it, but I do think these features will protect N&W more so than help S&E. In my mind N&W is a lock for snow, and likely significant at that. Certainly a storm that will warrant its first snow map of the season!

For S&E I need to see more. MORE MUGS MORE

by **amugs** Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:26 pm

Okay from Maragrave this morning....NORM MacDONALD rule at play and EURO jumping on board!!

NEW 18z euro also leaps SE w/ coastal low development. pic.twitter.com/6P63sqFjjV
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) December 13, 2022

by **hyde345** Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:18z GFS - Please make it happen.
Man talk about a cut-off wow, rain here sig snow 15 miles to my north, no gradual increase just goes rain to 6+..

I would take that snowmap with a grain of salt. It's the GFS after all and I posted 10:1 ratio map and it's going to be less than that. I'm hoping for a decent front end dump but It's going to be nothing like the GFS portrays IMO.

by **docstox12** Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:20 am

NWS this morning has me a mix to rain for this, maybe 1/2 inch all told of snow and sleet.Let's see how this evolves over the next few days.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:19 am

I’m really interested to see if the current apparent soln shifts east at all in response to the blocking. Right now coastal hugger Low over LI seems to be the consensus but time and time again we have seen the soln walk itself to its final destination inside three days.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:19 am

This will be intetesting to see how long this CAD (Cold Air Daming)will hold. Minor fluctutaion in the set up will have major implications. Let's see what the 12Z solutions bring.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Fj3MvUqWYAImLC9?format=jpg&name=large

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Fj3MvUqWYAImLC9?format=jpg&name=large

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:30 am

Sliding the mid-level energy about 100 miles S/E would do wonders for the I95. Right now models say no, but are they right?

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Euro72

by **amugs** Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:35 am

NAM taking a jump East - need a few more SE jumps, is it real? will it happen?

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Fj3jEUXXgAA7HKc?format=jpg&name=large

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Fj3jEUXXgAA7HKc?format=jpg&name=large

by **dsix85** Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:03 am

I don't think Long Island is out of the game..with each passing run, I'm getting a bit more intrigued with the possibility of at least a nice burst of front end snow.

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 13, 2022 11:10 am

Mid-level energy is definitely feeling the block and there's no way the model has this nailed yet. This isn't a non tenable track for the I95 for frozen. To me this thing is deepening and moving away and that tends to cool the mid-levels quickly. May not work out, but definitely close enough to keep an eye on it. With a plugged up Atlantic it could stall a bit too.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 12zgfs11

by **amugs** Tue Dec 13, 2022 12:32 pm

GEFS have a sweet look - Norm MacDonlad Rule at play here - wher eteh storm enters the West Coast latitude location is where it will exit on the East Coast = Norfolk, Va.
GEFS show this, is it onto something?? Man this is a hard forecast for sure. 25 -50 mile jogs mean a big difference (more rain, slop or snow depending) for a good many peeps on this board.

From Qtown over at 33nRain
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-instant_ptype-1670932800-1671105600-1671235200-40.gif.8becf4b1c309cdf6a9962a243405ef04

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-instant_ptype-1670932800-1671105600-1671235200-40.gif.8becf4b1c309cdf6a9962a243405ef04

by **phil155** Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:04 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS have a sweet look - Norm MacDonlad Rule at play here - wher eteh storm enters the West Coast latitude location is where it will exit on the East Coast = Norfolk, Va.
GEFS show this, is it onto something?? Man this is a hard forecast for sure. 25 -50 mile jogs mean a big difference (more rain, slop or snow depending) for a good many peeps on this board.

From Qtown over at 33nRain

The rain/snow line is still a little north of me in edison pale

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:15 pm

Based on where the models are at this is probably a good expectation of actual snowfall from this event for the immediate area. Kinda makes me giggle a bit, but it is what it is. It won't take a dramatic change to track, but I think 100 miles or so SE is needed which would shift the 2-4" towards I95. At this range it's possible, but probably going to need to start seeing that on tomorrow's guidance, but I get those that have checked out of this one...

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Euro73

by **amugs** Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:27 pm

Interesting error fluctuation on guidance by NWS, great graphic:

[Dec 13] We know a lot of people are excited about the potential late week winter storm. BUT it is still premature for any specific snowfall amounts. Check out the model error 3 days ahead of time. Stay tuned & be sure to get your forecast from official sources. #vtwx #nywx #snow pic.twitter.com/S4CndNtgm4
— NWS Burlington (@NWSBurlington) December 13, 2022

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:40 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where the models are at this is probably a good expectation of actual snowfall from this event for the immediate area. Kinda makes me giggle a bit, but it is what it is. It won't take a dramatic change to track, but I think 100 miles or so SE is needed which would shift the 2-4" towards I95. At this range it's possible, but probably going to need to start seeing that on tomorrow's guidance, but I get those that have checked out of this one...

ya I think I'm checking out on this one wasn't too hopeful to.begin with. If there's a sudden change I'll be happily surprised.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Based on where the models are at this is probably a good expectation of actual snowfall from this event for the immediate area. Kinda makes me giggle a bit, but it is what it is. It won't take a dramatic change to track, but I think 100 miles or so SE is needed which would shift the 2-4" towards I95. At this range it's possible, but probably going to need to start seeing that on tomorrow's guidance, but I get those that have checked out of this one...

ya I think I'm checking out on this one wasn't too hopeful to.begin with. If there's a sudden change I'll be happily surprised.

Watch it be all rain... Laughing

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:44 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where the models are at this is probably a good expectation of actual snowfall from this event for the immediate area. Kinda makes me giggle a bit, but it is what it is. It won't take a dramatic change to track, but I think 100 miles or so SE is needed which would shift the 2-4" towards I95. At this range it's possible, but probably going to need to start seeing that on tomorrow's guidance, but I get those that have checked out of this one...

This is what I would expect as well.

We have to stay true to basics sometimes. Here's the 500mb map valid for Thursday morning. We have heights rising ahead of the big and mighty ULL in the Midwest. The 500mb energy circulating around it has space to bring a primary low and cut it into the Lakes, thus torching all our mid-levels. The CAD is simply not strong enough to pop the secondary low south enough to bring the cold air back in.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Ecmwf-z500a-us-22

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Ecmwf-z500a-us-22

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 2 Ecmwf-mslpa-us-24

by **hyde345** Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:03 pm

Why are we just looking at the Euro which is the warmest solution and provides the least snow. The coast was always going to be toast with this one. CMC, GFS, and Nam all have at least a a front end dump that gives N and W a few inches. That cannot be discounted at this stage. Euro gives me barely an inch which is possible but not set in stone. The CAD is often underestimated especially away from from the coast as my area is north of 84. I'm not going to throw in the towel on a prolonged period of frozen precip especially 50+ miles N and W.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:06 pm

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations up to
around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high
as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Oneida, Steuben, Schuyler,
Chemung, Tompkins, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland,
Chenango, Otsego, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan
counties. In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern
Wayne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne
counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and ice amounts will vary greatly
depending on location and elevation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Winter
storm warnings could be issued as the storm gets closer and
confidence increases.

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:16 pm

mikeypizano wrote:...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations up to
around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high
as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Oneida, Steuben, Schuyler,
Chemung, Tompkins, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland,
Chenango, Otsego, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan
counties. In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern
Wayne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne
counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and ice amounts will vary greatly
depending on location and elevation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Winter
storm warnings could be issued as the storm gets closer and
confidence increases.

I-81 corridor is the place to be for this one. Either that or be over 1500' ASL.

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