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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:09 am

Haw you and I are on this brother - I am teling you Norm MacDonald Rule is being verified here - who remebers ......NORM???!!!

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:11 am

Look at what happened Sunday peeps - let's see if we can repeat this !!

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Lets-go-the-rock

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:02 pm

12Z GEFS pretty much a BM track on the surface low. LoL. It's been consistent on the further SE track I'll give it that...

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Gefs48

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:05 pm


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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:10 pm

12Z EURO takes a slight tick SE

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1671019200-1671105600-1671224400-40.gif.2aa7ed318f7fdb7452c9b758751be094

Have to look at 500, mid level centers to see whats what.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:16 pm

amugs wrote:12Z EURO takes a slight tick SE

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1671019200-1671105600-1671224400-40.gif.2aa7ed318f7fdb7452c9b758751be094

Have to look at 500, mid level centers to see whats what.
Need about 2 more tics.  If the GFS is truly leading the way it seems feasible for I95 and points NW for some accumulations. Synoptically it makes sense for SE push.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:51 pm

Double Barrel LP?? Huh? It does not make sense in this set up, if you take this further east to #2 it is in with the GFS camp. Is it real though?

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Image.png.70de206ab72afed803c23ad962cd6ad6

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:12Z EURO takes a slight tick SE

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1671019200-1671105600-1671224400-40.gif.2aa7ed318f7fdb7452c9b758751be094

Have to look at 500, mid level centers to see whats what.
Need about 2 more tics.  If the GFS is truly leading the way it seems feasible for I95 and points NW for some accumulations. Synoptically it makes sense for SE push.

I vehemently agree we have about abother 20-25 miles jog left maybe more. Th emid level torch I have not looked at yet for EURO but seeing the SLP heading East is better news for those who were fringe a day ago and true slop. Still have some time peeps.
Again beyond day 6 GFS is mal but is better at Miller B's with teh newest upgrade? We'll see but I know they have been tweaking this model since the upgrade a couple of weeks ago.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:58 pm

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:12Z EURO takes a slight tick SE

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1671019200-1671105600-1671224400-40.gif.2aa7ed318f7fdb7452c9b758751be094

Have to look at 500, mid level centers to see whats what.
Need about 2 more tics.  If the GFS is truly leading the way it seems feasible for I95 and points NW for some accumulations. Synoptically it makes sense for SE push.

I vehemently agree we have about abother 20-25 miles jog left maybe more. Th emid level torch I have not looked at yet for EURO but seeing the SLP heading East is better news for those who were fringe a day ago and true slop. Still have some time peeps.
Again beyond day 6 GFS is mal but is better at Miller B's with teh newest upgrade? We'll see but I know they have been tweaking this model since the upgrade a couple of weeks ago.

When we do start taking the NAM into consideration?
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by MattyICE Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:02 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:12Z EURO takes a slight tick SE

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1671019200-1671105600-1671224400-40.gif.2aa7ed318f7fdb7452c9b758751be094

Have to look at 500, mid level centers to see whats what.
Need about 2 more tics.  If the GFS is truly leading the way it seems feasible for I95 and points NW for some accumulations. Synoptically it makes sense for SE push.

I vehemently agree we have about abother 20-25 miles jog left maybe more. Th emid level torch I have not looked at yet for EURO but seeing the SLP heading East is better news for those who were fringe a day ago and true slop. Still have some time peeps.
Again beyond day 6 GFS is mal but is better at Miller B's with teh newest upgrade? We'll see but I know they have been tweaking this model since the upgrade a couple of weeks ago.

When we do start taking the NAM into consideration?

I would say this coming 18z run/tonight’s 00z - as it’ll be within 24ish hours of start time, generally.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:08 pm

12Z GFS mid levels are not torched

850's plenty cold
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Fj9b252XwAAAeUd?format=jpg&name=large
7
700 Too
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Fj9b254XkAAslCL?format=jpg&name=large

Now Euro - but again it has a stupidly wrong double barrel Low that is screwing up these maps so I say pull these 50 miles SE and there you have it
N wind as well at 700
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Fj9b252X0AEYHeN?format=jpg&name=large

850
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Fj9b256XEAER_G1?format=jpg&name=large

This is where i'd say this line should be (heavy black line), between warm and cold air that supports wintry precip.
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 850_eu11


Problem is the boundary layer, surface temps are above freezing but with heavier precip and darkness we at 33* can overcome this with heavier rates.
Also the further east this torm gets it allows more cold air to come in, less resistance.

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:11 pm

@HAW


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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:32 pm

amugs wrote:@HAW

The GFS track would bring snow accumulations to the I95 IMO.  Especially if it starts to deepen as it moves towards the BM, then it can drag in colder air faster. I've seen worse setups bring snow to I95 before...

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:35 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:@HAW

The GFS track would bring snow accumulations to the I95 IMO.  Especially if it starts to deepen as it moves towards the BM, then it can drag in colder air faster. I've seen worse setups bring snow to I95 before...

And about 25 miles more SE would be even better

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by aiannone Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:49 pm

From DT

FIRST CALL MAPS
"The main change in the FIRST CALL forecast in the lower Middle Atlantic, the northern Mid-Atlantic, and in New England is that the model data last night and early this morning is actually a couple of degrees warmer. This is not a surprise given the fact that the Coastal LOW is going to be tracking in land which produces an easterly wind. And since the ocean water temperatures in mid-December are still relatively mild, easterly winds bring in mild faster. Parenthetically, if we had the exact same storm track and set up during the early or mid-March this would be primarily a snow event for much of the middle Atlantic and New England since the ocean water temperatures in March would be much colder.
In the Shenandoah Valley, western Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia the short-range model data shows temperatures DO NOT drop down to 28 degrees early Thursday morning. The new model data is a few degrees warmer, so temperatures stay around 31 or 32 degrees from 2 am to noon on Thursday. This significantly reduces the threat of major ice buildup. If you look at the ICE forecast map you will see that we have removed the term HEAVY ICE because of these slightly milder temperatures.
Further to the north, the lightly milder temperatures at the surface and the mid-levels of the atmosphere has increased the threat of this being a snow elevation event. By that we mean the precipitation might be a snow rain mix at 500 or 800 foot elevation, but it could be mostly also above 1000 ft or 1500 foot elevation. This means that the snowfall amounts in places such as the Hudson River Valley and the Connecticut River Valley could end up being several inches LESS than the immediate mountains and hills on either side of these river valleys. More information on waiting times and everything else."

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 32026210
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 32005910
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:58 pm

Winter storm watch just posted for orange county in Southeast New York. Calling for a possible 7 inches with heavier amounts possible. Not sure I see that in the lower elevation river towns of orange county but I can see the western and northern areas getting into totals like that.

The river towns in orange county or as low as 150 feet whereas the northern and western parts of the county run upwards of 1000 to 1200 feet. Where Doc and I are about 5 miles apart is about 6 to 700 feet above sea level I don’t see us getting in on those higher amounts but I hope I’m wrong. Now where Damien is in northern orange I could definitely see it
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:03 pm

Yesterdays 12z EPS spread, it was pretty clear the main cluster was west. Versus today's 12z spread has several members shifting east towards the BM.  One would think that as we close in on game time the cluster would tighten not spread out.  Def raises a red flag on the more western solns for sure.  Im certainly not holding my breath where I am on LI, but certainly those on the fringe N&W of the city could see some surprises.  

Yesterdays EPS 12z




Todays 12z


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:09 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Winter storm watch just posted for orange county in Southeast New York. Calling for a possible 7 inches with heavier amounts possible. Not sure I see that in the lower elevation river towns of orange county but I can see the western and northern areas getting into totals like that.

The river towns in orange county or as low as 150 feet whereas the northern and western parts of the county run upwards of 1000 to 1200 feet. Where Doc and I are about 5 miles apart is about 6 to 700 feet above sea level  I don’t see us getting in on those higher amounts but I hope I’m wrong. Now where Damien is in northern orange I could definitely see it

Welcome back CP. Not the same without you posting.

Cheers to being back

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fykt3L3v

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by dkodgis Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:13 pm

CP CP CP!
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:50 pm

My guess is the NWS is considering the possibility of GFS track.  If it's right then definitely Orange County and NW NJ are in line for 6+". Just depends on the track...

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Post by hyde345 Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:59 pm

18z GFS not backing down and still has colder solution and higher snow amounts.

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Snku_a12
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:03 pm

From the perspective of someone who is well south and quite east, this storm hasn't offered much of anything to get excited about. Seeing the post from CP is the highlight so far! But that's a genuine highlight- great to hear from you CP and I hope all is well!

I was surprised to see that my neck of the woods is expected to get maybe over 2" of rain and regular 30+ mph winds from this. Not that big of a deal, but we'll feel it, that's for sure. lol!

So, hopefully, things work out for the northern half of the board. You look at the r/s line Mugsy drew in the map up above and it goes right through the New York island. If he's right, that would be a great, unexpected outcome for a lot of our forum members! Here's hoping...and thanks a million  to all our mets for the time and effort you all give in the tracking and forecasting!

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by mikeypizano Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:14 pm

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
1 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an
inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Lackawanna and Luzerne counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice and snow will be heavy and wet which
could bring down branches. Power outages are possible. The
highest snow amounts will be across the highest terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorist to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways,
and traffic conditions.
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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:47 pm

@Alex DT rides the Euro like it is his last hope on the planet.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 14, 2022 6:55 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Winter storm watch just posted for orange county in Southeast New York. Calling for a possible 7 inches with heavier amounts possible. Not sure I see that in the lower elevation river towns of orange county but I can see the western and northern areas getting into totals like that.

The river towns in orange county or as low as 150 feet whereas the northern and western parts of the county run upwards of 1000 to 1200 feet. Where Doc and I are about 5 miles apart is about 6 to 700 feet above sea level  I don’t see us getting in on those higher amounts but I hope I’m wrong. Now where Damien is in northern orange I could definitely see it

CP, I have been watching this trend slowly in our favor the last few days.Went from hazardous weather warning to a now winter storm watch.A solid 4 at this juncture is a good shot up from maybe an inch of slop yesterday.Mugsy showing those GFS and Euro maps ticking this S and E seem to be coming into play.He has been honking over that CAD effect all week.Let's see tomorrow morning where we stand on this one.

Still have a few inch snowpack here, guess you do as well.Down by the Red Apple Rest, barely an inch.That's the river elevation area, up my hill on the Orange Tpk, we are up that 6-700 feet and that does make a difference for sure.
Good to have you back Buddy, winter storms would be no fun without you reporting!
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:06 pm

Shorties coming into the sweet spot let's see what they have to say.
CP glad to see you back my man, we are getting the band back together. Where be Snowy??

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:55 pm

Madonne…check out this frontogenesis that comes through NEPA and SWNY overnight Thursday. IMO, this should be considered the “jackpot” zone where 8”+ are possible. Already the second snow event for the N&W crew. Very nice!!

Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 F942cf10
Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 80c95410

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Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference - Page 4 Empty Re: Dec 16 Just a little change can make the difference

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