Re: February Obs & Discussions

by **heehaw453** Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:37 pm

First thing let's hope this ULL stays underneath us. Second to get sig snow out of this it's going to have to stay underneath and be a bit stronger s/w as it hits the coast. Some kind of injection of energy at that time would slow it down and bring in heavier rates.

by **heehaw453** Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:42 pm

Euro maybe wrong, but this depiction is showing a block that means business and is bullying the L pressure. If this is right this is more white than wet from Trenton on northward.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Euro114

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:44 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO comes in colder for Monday night Tuesday morning storm. 6-8’’ for NYC metro!

Not so sure it’s 10:1 ratios though area wide. Coastal plain looks less. I’m going to wait until tomorrow to really look at temp profiles. Get some more of the hi res models in play.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:12 pm

Received this postcard from CP. He has sworn off appearances here on the Mainland for the rest of Wing, but wanted the posters here to be aware of his observations:
Re: OTI Weather observations
New post by CPcantmeasuresnow Today at 1:28 pm

Back on the Mainland in Highland Mills 25 degrees and moderate snow again after a brief lull.

0.8 inches there as of the 1:00 pm snow board tally.

WOW we may break an inch today, 8.8 inches now for the year.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:14 pm

Monday night's system is very close to being a measurable snow event for many, but still a very close call and in this winter it is probably good to keep expectations in check. I think we'll have a much better grasp on it from the model runs tomorrow.

by **amugs** Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:38 pm

EURO not backing down as stated.

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by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:54 pm

amugs wrote:EURO not backing down as stated.

wow thats some heavy snow for all even nyc. No sci or seperate thread for this? Its really our only true threat that didnt die b4 this time frame. Really only 72 hrs away closer to 48. Reel it in mugs.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:56 pm

My fear with this is no one has had any snow experience down here this year. There could be a lot accidents if it happens. People forget how to drive in snow and down here they suck as it is.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:34 pm

18z GFS loading up. Let's see where this takes us.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:My fear with this is no one has had any snow experience down here this year. There could be a lot accidents if it happens. People forget how to drive in snow and down here they suck as it is.

jman that is every year..and people do not know how to drive in general... Very Happy

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:01 pm

GFS appears to be coming in a bit south of previous runs, or put differently, possibly trending toward colder Euro.
I'll post a couple key frames and let more experienced eyes agree or disagree. But at a minimum, it is still keeping us in the game for this event to be snowy for a lot of people.

by **heehaw453** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:03 pm

The models are coming inline with a general southerly trajectory of the ULL and most importantly 700/850s. It's going to be close, but if they pass around DE Trenton on north is going to see some white gold.

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:11 pm

18z:

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 94ba9f10

12z:

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by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:12 pm

18z:

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12z:

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by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:20 pm

18z:

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12z:

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by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:22 pm

Slight, but a trend toward the Euro no less.

by **heehaw453** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:39 pm

The NAM 3k is out of range, but I'm looking at the consolidation too. How quickly consolidation occurs is as important as the location. You stop a warm nose that way. If there's a warm nose here it's going to be LHV/EPA.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Nam3k13

by **heehaw453** Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:56 pm

This is the closest sounding I've got w/out point and click. Similar elevation and latitude. Something like this I'd be fine, but a movement of say 20 miles of the mid-level lows or failure to consolidate I'm mixing. I'm really hoping this thing consolidates quickly.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Quaker11

by **billg315** Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:05 pm

There will almost certainly be people on a borderline who are going to have to "nowcast" between it snowing at a decent clip or the dreaded mixing. But increasingly I think there is a good chance if you are further north on this board you could stay mostly snow.

by **GreyBeard** Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:05 pm

NWS Forecast favors northern areas, no surprise there.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02252023_pm.pdf

by **amugs** Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:54 pm

Euro says HOLD.ME BERR!! FEELING THE PRESS OF THE NAO BLOCK!!

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by **heehaw453** Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:00 pm

If there were some last minute injection into this s/w right before it hits the coast that would be a game changer.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:If there were some last minute injection into this s/w right before it hits the coast that would be a game changer.

In a good way meaning even more snow or meaning warmer?

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:19 pm

amugs wrote:Euro says HOLD.ME BERR!! FEELING THE PRESS OF THE NAO BLOCK!!

Nice closing in on 48 hrs, lets hold onto that look! What are we looking at totals on that run just out of curiosity, not exactly clown snow maps now.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:46 pm

Nam coming in colder for the early week storm. Good start to the 0z runs.

by **amugs** Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:03 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam coming in colder for the early week storm. Good start to the 0z runs.

Feeling the NAO ocl baby! What a trend. See that up in Maine! Bring it baby!

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by **MattyICE** Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:06 am

Big day of tracking, friends. I know many won’t believe the digital snow until they shovel it, and I get that! But let’s real this sucker in!