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February Obs & Discussions

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nutleyblizzard
richb521
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:37 pm

First thing let's hope this ULL stays underneath us.  Second to get sig snow out of this it's going to have to stay underneath and be a bit stronger s/w as it hits the coast.  Some kind of injection of energy at that time would slow it down and bring in heavier rates.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:42 pm

Euro maybe wrong, but this depiction is showing a block that means business and is bullying the L pressure. If this is right this is more white than wet from Trenton on northward.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Euro114

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:44 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO comes in colder for Monday night Tuesday morning storm. 6-8’’ for NYC metro!

Not so sure it’s 10:1 ratios though area wide. Coastal plain looks less. I’m going to wait until tomorrow to really look at temp profiles. Get some more of the hi res models in play.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:12 pm

Received this postcard from CP. He has sworn off appearances here on the Mainland for the rest of Wing, but wanted the posters here to be aware of his observations:
Re: OTI Weather observations
New post by CPcantmeasuresnow Today at 1:28 pm

Back on the Mainland in Highland Mills 25 degrees and moderate snow again after a brief lull.

0.8 inches there as of the 1:00 pm snow board tally.

WOW we may break an inch today, 8.8 inches now for the year.
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:14 pm

Monday night's system is very close to being a measurable snow event for many, but still a very close call and in this winter it is probably good to keep expectations in check. I think we'll have a much better grasp on it from the model runs tomorrow.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:38 pm

EURO not backing down as stated.


February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 4edceb10
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 B25aaa10

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:54 pm

amugs wrote:EURO not backing down as stated.


February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 4edceb10
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 B25aaa10
wow thats some heavy snow for all even nyc. No sci or seperate thread for this? Its really our only true threat that didnt die b4 this time frame. Really only 72 hrs away closer to 48. Reel it in mugs.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 25, 2023 3:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 25, 2023 2:56 pm

My fear with this is no one has had any snow experience down here this year. There could be a lot accidents if it happens. People forget how to drive in snow and down here they suck as it is.
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:34 pm

18z GFS loading up. Let's see where this takes us.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:My fear with this is no one has had any snow experience down here this year. There could be a lot accidents if it happens. People forget how to drive in snow and down here they suck as it is.

jman that is every year..and people do not know how to drive in general... Very Happy
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:01 pm

GFS appears to be coming in a bit south of previous runs, or put differently, possibly trending toward colder Euro.
I'll post a couple key frames and let more experienced eyes agree or disagree. But at a minimum, it is still keeping us in the game for this event to be snowy for a lot of people.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:03 pm

The models are coming inline with a general southerly trajectory of the ULL and most importantly 700/850s.  It's going to be close, but if they pass around DE Trenton on north is going to see some white gold.

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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:11 pm

18z:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 94ba9f10
12z:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 B7382f10
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:12 pm

18z:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 D2a86c10
12z:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 05774a10
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:20 pm

18z:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 62478210
12z:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 102e3710
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:22 pm

Slight, but a trend toward the Euro no less.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:39 pm

The NAM 3k is out of range, but I'm looking at the consolidation too.  How quickly consolidation occurs is as important as the location. You stop a warm nose that way. If there's a warm nose here it's going to be LHV/EPA.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Nam3k13

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:56 pm

This is the closest sounding I've got w/out point and click.  Similar elevation and latitude.  Something like this I'd be fine, but a movement of say 20 miles of the mid-level lows or failure to consolidate I'm mixing. I'm really hoping this thing consolidates quickly.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Quaker11

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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:05 pm

There will almost certainly be people on a borderline who are going to have to "nowcast" between it snowing at a decent clip or the dreaded mixing. But increasingly I think there is a good chance if you are further north on this board you could stay mostly snow.
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Post by GreyBeard Sat Feb 25, 2023 6:05 pm

NWS Forecast favors northern areas, no surprise there.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02252023_pm.pdf

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:54 pm

Euro says HOLD.ME BERR!! FEELING THE PRESS OF THE NAO BLOCK!!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 16773710

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:00 pm

If there were some last minute injection into this s/w right before it hits the coast that would be a game changer.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:If there were some last minute injection into this s/w right before it hits the coast that would be a game changer.
In a good way meaning even more snow or meaning warmer?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:19 pm

amugs wrote:Euro says HOLD.ME BERR!! FEELING THE PRESS OF THE NAO BLOCK!!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 16773710
Nice closing in on 48 hrs, lets hold onto that look! What are we looking at totals on that run just out of curiosity, not exactly clown snow maps now.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:46 pm

Nam coming in colder for the early week storm. Good start to the 0z runs.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:03 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam coming in colder for the early week storm. Good start to the 0z runs.
Feeling the NAO ocl baby! What a trend. See that up in Maine! Bring it baby!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 9 2ebb6d10

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by MattyICE Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:06 am

Big day of tracking, friends. I know many won’t believe the digital snow until they shovel it, and I get that! But let’s real this sucker in!

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