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October Obs & Discussions

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Frozen.9
Aerojet514
rb924119
aiannone
dkodgis
GreyBeard
sroc4
frank 638
phil155
jmanley32
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
docstox12
amugs
weatherwatchermom
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 16, 2023 9:57 pm

amugs wrote:Lovely wet weekedn again!!

October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 F8jiC6JWsAAl-bO?format=jpg&name=large
Not too bad, certainly not much comparatively to what we have seen, and this is over a span of almost 3 days, and 12z Euro has almost nothing, I would be perfectly happy with a rain free weekend.

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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Oct 16, 2023 11:09 pm

amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:04 am

1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !
That's why I took my pictures the cloud formations yesterday afternoon were ominous and different than what we normally see
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 17, 2023 10:53 am

1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !

I am sorry if you took at is a snide remark becasue it was not at all. I was just saying it as "wow at 56*" that's incredible that I have never seen nor heard of snow falling at that temperature. I heard of mid to upper 40's before but never mid 50's. Extreme weather to the max and you learn sometihng new all the time on this incredible planet we call earth. Yes wishes for a record winter snowfall for all!

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 17, 2023 12:32 pm

amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !

I am sorry if you took at is a snide remark becasue it was not at all. I was just saying it as "wow at 56*" that's incredible that I have never seen nor heard of snow falling at that temperature. I heard of mid to upper 40's before but never mid 50's. Extreme weather to the max and you learn sometihng new all the time on this incredible planet we call earth. Yes wishes for a record winter snowfall for all!

Likely at that temp it was graupel. White like snowflakes but heavy enough to fall quickly without fully melting. With the cold pool aloft yesterday triggering those showers, likely had below freezing air aloft causing the graupel. Impressive for this time of year nonetheless though.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:02 pm

I imagine 1090ftalt elevation also helped with the situation.I drove on Rt 84 past the highest point in NJ over 40 years to a frat bros cabin on Lake Wallenpaupack near Hawley for cigars, bourbon, beer, fishing and poker, and that must be near where 1090 lives.It is absolutely beautiful country.My late Uncle had a 235 acre spread in Westtown, not too far away and the Ap Trail ran at the perimeter of his property.I could see the High Point Monument from the road by his house.Man, I wish I had grown up there like my Cousins, those lucky skates,LOL.

61 degrees, mostly cloudy and slight breeze today.
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:47 pm

amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !

I am sorry if you took at is a snide remark becasue it was not at all. I was just saying it as "wow at 56*" that's incredible that I have never seen nor heard of snow falling at that temperature. I heard of mid to upper 40's before but never mid 50's. Extreme weather to the max and you learn sometihng new all the time on this incredible planet we call earth. Yes wishes for a record winter snowfall for all!

I am Sorry Amugg, I misinterpreted what you wrote! I am including 2 pictures, one is from the road showing the mountain that my house and property are at the base of, my property borders the Delaware Water gap National Park Service land. The picture from the road is around 1100 feet house about 90 ft higher, the top of the mountain is 1605 feet elevation.The picture with the American Flag is from the top of Mt Paradise looking down at the road that you can see in the picture. Many times I am hiking the Appalachian Trail on the mountain ( 30 minutes walk from my house) in the summer and I have been hailed on! From the top of the mountain looking west you can see probably 40 miles where the elevation gets up to 2700 feet and crazy storms roll through. Anyhow I hike about 10-20 miles a week on the AT trying to get pictures Of Bobcats, they are very secret but occasionally I get one! Anybody ever want beautiful access to Crater Lake, Buttermilk Falls, Mt Paradise or Rattlesnake mountain and like to hike reach out to me and I can show you around.
I actually hung that flag!October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1428f010
October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 C6005510
October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 F536e410

Again Amugg I apologize and on the signs I see from Mother Nature I think we are in for a SNOWY WINTER!
Good Luck !
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:52 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !
That's why I took my pictures the cloud formations yesterday afternoon were ominous and different  than what we normally see

Yes, that’s why I took the picture, they looked like Snow Clouds!
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:55 pm

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !

I am sorry if you took at is a snide remark becasue it was not at all. I was just saying it as "wow at 56*" that's incredible that I have never seen nor heard of snow falling at that temperature. I heard of mid to upper 40's before but never mid 50's. Extreme weather to the max and you learn sometihng new all the time on this incredible planet we call earth. Yes wishes for a record winter snowfall for all!

Likely at that temp it was graupel. White like snowflakes but heavy enough to fall quickly without fully melting. With the cold pool aloft yesterday triggering those showers, likely had below freezing air aloft causing the graupel. Impressive for this time of year nonetheless though.

They were definitely snow flakes, no ice or hail , maybe up top it started out as Hail, great observation, Thanks!
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:57 pm

docstox12 wrote:I imagine 1090ftalt elevation also helped with the situation.I drove on Rt 84 past the highest point in NJ over 40 years to a frat bros cabin on Lake Wallenpaupack near Hawley for cigars, bourbon, beer, fishing and poker, and that must be near where 1090 lives.It is absolutely beautiful country.My late Uncle had a 235 acre spread in Westtown, not too far away and the Ap Trail ran at the perimeter of his property.I could see the High Point Monument from the road by his house.Man, I wish I had grown up there like my Cousins, those lucky skates,LOL.

61 degrees, mostly cloudy and slight breeze today.

Westtown NY, right over the border from the Highpoint Monument, beautiful country!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 17, 2023 5:30 pm

1190ftalt wrote:
amugs wrote:
1190ftalt wrote:First snow flurries of the year in Stillwater around 3:30!
WELCOME WINTER! 56 degrees October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 6b074c10

No kidding at 56* wow!

Funny thing is I was driving and pulling into my Lake community with my wife and it just got done pouring rain and my wife said “ Look it’s Snowing “ ! I Looked and snow flakes were coming down . I showed my wife your snide comment and the the other one from the therapist ( scary) and she was very surprised to say the Least. Anyhow wishing everyone a record snowfall winter!  “The snowflake can survive if the cooling due to evaporation outweighs or balances the warming due to conduction from the surrounding, warmer air.”
Looked this up for you ,found it interesting ! The picture I posted was not of Snowflakes but of the sky all day here at 1190 feet , I’m right off the Appalachian Trail !
Well I do apologize (I also took what mugs said as sarcasm and folowed up with it and it kinda backfired big time!), I had no idea it could snow at 56, but not sure how its scary that I said that because I am a therapist. Therapists have their own lives and we are not therapists 24/7, in fact you would probably be more taken aback by how much therapists in general talk when not at work about mental health (not in a bad way but we all crack jokes, it's impossible not too we would never survive as a provider with such hard jobs. Anyways after reading up from the follow-up it amazes me that it can still snow at that temp.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:00 am

So what is the consensus for this weekend? Seems the Euro and CMC are in one camp (far less rain with some periods with no rain, or just drizzle), and the GFS which is a full blown LP with rain the entire time and moderate at times. Not worried about flooding but curious if there will be any outdoor time that it isn't nasty.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:46 am

jmanley32 wrote:So what is the consensus for this weekend? Seems the Euro and CMC are in one camp (far less rain with some periods with no rain, or just drizzle), and the GFS which is a full blown LP with rain the entire time and moderate at times. Not worried about flooding but curious if there will be any outdoor time that it isn't nasty.

As it stands now Friday is more likely to be the steadier rain especially eastern half of the coverage area. Saturday May be on and off. But still some kinks to be worked out with where or if and how strong a secondary LP develops off the Delmarva. Still uncertainty.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Oct 18, 2023 12:25 pm

October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Screen20
Saw this this morning
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:46 pm

@1190 - no problemo brother and yes what I ma seeing from nature I concur. This from a farmer - the acorn production and size, the animal coats, and lastly the berry bushes production - all 3 have been off the charts by me - deer have their winter coats, acorn are ridiculous and big - when they drop on our cars it sonds like a rock hitting them, and berriers - my blackberry bush produced quarts of berries this year from Late July thorugh last week and my blueberry bushed produced the most as well. Let's see if ol' man Johnson nails it.... agian ala 2013-14, 14-15, 17-18.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Wed Oct 18, 2023 2:26 pm

amugs wrote:@1190 - no problemo brother and yes what I ma seeing from nature I concur. This from a farmer - the acorn production and size, the animal coats, and lastly the berry bushes production - all 3 have been off the charts by me - deer have their winter coats, acorn are ridiculous and big - when they drop on our cars it sonds like a rock hitting them, and berriers - my blackberry bush produced quarts of berries this year from Late July thorugh last week and my blueberry bushed produced the most as well. Let's see if ol' man Johnson nails it.... agian ala 2013-14, 14-15, 17-18.


Same here, Mugs, never had as many acorns from the oak tree here and they are huge.Nothing like fresh Blackberries on your cereal! Also noticing a ton of those helicopter maple seeds this year.Never saw that many here in 10 years.

59 degrees, mostly cloudy and calm wind.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 18, 2023 6:33 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So what is the consensus for this weekend? Seems the Euro and CMC are in one camp (far less rain with some periods with no rain, or just drizzle), and the GFS which is a full blown LP with rain the entire time and moderate at times. Not worried about flooding but curious if there will be any outdoor time that it isn't nasty.

As it stands now Friday is more likely to be the steadier rain especially eastern half of the coverage area. Saturday May be on and off. But still some kinks to be worked out with where or if and how strong a secondary LP develops off the Delmarva. Still uncertainty.
But basically another stay inside weekend, but maybe salvage sunday again?
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:07 pm

Looks like we may salvage Saturday afternoon. Rain comes in earlier Friday, down to a showery day with breaks of sun later Saturday.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:51 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like we may salvage Saturday afternoon. Rain comes in earlier Friday, down to a showery day with breaks of sun later Saturday.
looks like sunday should be good too.
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:27 am

October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 F8zFftpW8AARJ-o?format=jpg&name=medium

If it has any clue!!

October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 F8zFftrXcAE8ORX?format=jpg&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:34 am

Doc may win the pool on the first freeze. 40 this morning. This time of the month, the house is chilly in am  but it is still too warm for a fire.
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:27 pm

Please do this for winter!!!! Phase 8 and then 1 all day and everyday = a banger of a winter!! Cold inbound peeps next week

October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 F8z806cW4AAmmIc?format=png&name=small


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Thu Oct 19, 2023 1:04 pm

First "cold" blast of the season coming up in about a week? Looks like a frontal system may bring in some cold Canadian air next weekend (10/28). If as modeled, we might struggle to get above 50* around Sunday and Monday of that week which might translate into a morning freeze (or at least frost) for some people.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:10 pm

Took a nice ride up the PIP and 9W today. Some areas are near peak, glad we went today, with the wind and rain this weekend it may not be so nice much longer.  
October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Beer10

October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Pip10

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:49 pm

Janet, you vouched for the view. How about the food? That joint looks like it has Damian written all over it
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:15 pm

dkodgis wrote:Janet, you vouched for the view. How about the food? That joint looks like it has Damian written all over it

Food is great! BBQ all the way! They have a nice indoor area too, so no matter the weather......

We had peeks of sun today and a cool breeze on the water, so it was jacket on, jacket off, jacket on, jacket off Razz
It hit a high of 64* there today, nice for the HV in October! Sometimes we get some nice weather in November for these type of day trips, so I hope we get more.

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:36 pm

dkodgis wrote:Janet, you vouched for the view. How about the food? That joint looks like it has Damian written all over it


As well as the Roc. How were those Carolina piglets and Smokey little longhorns?


October Obs & Discussions - Page 5 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.tenor.com%2Fimages%2Fd553ada767b8c5da62104555e158c187%2Ftenor



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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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