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October Obs & Discussions

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Post by frank 638 Sat Oct 07, 2023 2:19 pm

It was 68° this morning now it’s 64 and it’s very windy

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 07, 2023 2:30 pm

Looks like rain is over for majority in NYC area, I don't think that big batch rain to the west makes it into the area should shift north of here. Unless theres more rain that will develop offshore.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Oct 08, 2023 8:35 am

44 this am. I picked up two inches of rain Fri into Sat.

Leaves are avalanching now.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Oct 08, 2023 8:48 am

48* felt amazing!!!
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Post by frank 638 Sun Oct 08, 2023 9:43 am

51 * on a beautiful crisp fall day finally

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Post by amugs Sun Oct 08, 2023 10:13 am

46* for my low, feels like fall.

Don't look now but what could be a potential Nor'easter is showing up on models for next weekend  Fri through Sunday timeframe.
Pattern shows this could be a certainty.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Oct 08, 2023 10:44 am

Mugs, I saw that. Seems weekends are premier rain days. Today 15 mph gusts. The winds must be scouting out the area
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 08, 2023 8:26 pm

amugs wrote:46* for my low, feels like fall.

Don't look now but what could be a potential Nor'easter is showing up on models for next weekend  Fri through Sunday timeframe.
Pattern shows this could be a certainty.
Of course! Its the weekend, can we expect anything else? (sarcasm). Luckily Sundays have been nice and I have made it to some townwide sales and beefed up my inventory for the holidays, but if it's a 3-day'er next weekend may be one at home (bright side I could get a lot posted up).
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 08, 2023 8:27 pm

dkodgis wrote:Mugs, I saw that. Seems weekends are premier rain days. Today 15 mph gusts. The winds must be scouting out the area
I was in Malverne, LI today and it was very windy gusts had to be at least 20 mph.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:00 am

39 degrees, clear,calm.AC off/heat back on.Beautiful Fall week in October coming up.
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 09, 2023 7:42 am

Coldest morning of the season so far. 41.3 here for a low.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 09, 2023 1:33 pm

Nice day today, yesterday was nice too. Looks like we have until Friday which is when our potential entire weekend nor'easter may hit. Euro has a pretty strong LP with a quick main park with 2-4 inches of flooding rains and moderate winds sat/sun/mon. Looks like friday will be okay, but still ways out.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 09, 2023 8:12 pm

Weekend potential noreaster, this would surely do alot more than rain issues (2-4 inches), with all the saturated ground which would uproot trees at 40mph. This showing 40-60 mph for most along and near shore and 65-70mph in eastern LI verbatim. Courtesy of JB. Def have watch to see if this transpires. My guess with the luck we have been having that it does (to what extend thats unknown).

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8bhfo10

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8bhgw10

Feel free to move to banter if you guys feel it is too early.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 10, 2023 1:07 am

This past Sunday, I did another hike in the Adirondacks. This time, it was a dawn to dusk hike. As it seems to imply, this was the most intense hike I have ever done, surpassing even the more recent hikes. In the North County of NY state that day, there were scattered showers and fog, which at times obscured the views from the vistas. But on occasions, the region had breaks of sunshine off in the distance, so there were some good views of the peak foliage. Now, one of the vistas I was at, it was raining there, but with breaks of sun in the distance. The result: a view of peak foliage with a rainbow! Here is the picture:

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 9f516610

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Post by docstox12 Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:06 am

Math23x7 wrote:This past Sunday, I did another hike in the Adirondacks. This time, it was a dawn to dusk hike.  As it seems to imply, this was the most intense hike I have ever done, surpassing even the more recent hikes.  In the North County of NY state that day, there were scattered showers and fog, which at times obscured the views from the vistas.  But on occasions, the region had breaks of sunshine off in the distance, so there were some good views of the peak foliage.  Now, one of the vistas I was at, it was raining there, but with breaks of sun in the distance.  The result: a view of peak foliage with a rainbow! Here is the picture:

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 9f516610

Magnificent photo Mike! You have a great eye.In the back of my mind, I heard Judy Garland singing "Somewhere Over The Rainbow'.

40 degrees, clear, calm.Jman on to something with this weekend storm, NWS on it too.Saturday here only a high of 53 with rain.That's late November weather!
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 10, 2023 12:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Weekend potential noreaster, this would surely do alot more than rain issues (2-4 inches), with all the saturated ground which would uproot trees at 40mph. This showing 40-60 mph for most along and near shore and 65-70mph in eastern LI verbatim. Courtesy of JB. Def have watch to see if this transpires. My guess with the luck we have been having that it does (to what extend thats unknown).

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8bhfo10

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8bhgw10

Feel free to move to banter if you guys feel it is too early.

This wind field is waaay over done. I fully expect typical Nor easter conditions with 20-30mph sustained along the coastal plain at times and maybe some gusts up to 40-50mph, but those would be isolated along the immediate coast and east. Euro notorious for over amplifying the winds.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Weekend potential noreaster, this would surely do alot more than rain issues (2-4 inches), with all the saturated ground which would uproot trees at 40mph. This showing 40-60 mph for most along and near shore and 65-70mph in eastern LI verbatim. Courtesy of JB. Def have watch to see if this transpires. My guess with the luck we have been having that it does (to what extend thats unknown).

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8bhfo10

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8bhgw10

Feel free to move to banter if you guys feel it is too early.

This wind field is waaay over done.  I fully expect typical Nor easter conditions with 20-30mph sustained along the coastal plain at times and maybe some gusts up to 40-50mph, but those would be isolated along the immediate coast and east.  Euro notorious for over amplifying the winds.
No yeah I figured, not my first go around but JB posted it on his twitter, i just dont know how to copy twitter posts.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:11 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:This past Sunday, I did another hike in the Adirondacks. This time, it was a dawn to dusk hike.  As it seems to imply, this was the most intense hike I have ever done, surpassing even the more recent hikes.  In the North County of NY state that day, there were scattered showers and fog, which at times obscured the views from the vistas.  But on occasions, the region had breaks of sunshine off in the distance, so there were some good views of the peak foliage.  Now, one of the vistas I was at, it was raining there, but with breaks of sun in the distance.  The result: a view of peak foliage with a rainbow! Here is the picture:

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 9f516610

Magnificent photo Mike! You have a great eye.In the back of my mind, I heard Judy Garland singing "Somewhere Over The Rainbow'.

40 degrees, clear, calm.Jman on to something with this weekend storm, NWS on it too.Saturday here only a high of 53 with rain.That's late November weather!

Interesting you referenced the Wizard of Oz. So you know how on a lot of hiking trails, there are various trail markers indicated by colors such as blue, red and yellow, which are marked on either trees in plain sight or, if there aren't any trees in the vicinity, markers on the rocks/path. A good chunk of the time we (and I say that because I was with a few others) were on the yellow trail and near one of the vistas, when determining the direction to take, we saw it by the yellow rectangle and the arrow indicating where to go. So me and someone else happened to say "Follow the yellow brick road." Then right afterwards we realized that we referenced the same film that featured "Somewhere over the rainbow"

Also, at some of those vistas, it was 30s and windy (wind chills near 10), but all that hiking did not make it feel as cold.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Oct 11, 2023 6:15 am

Math23x7 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:This past Sunday, I did another hike in the Adirondacks. This time, it was a dawn to dusk hike.  As it seems to imply, this was the most intense hike I have ever done, surpassing even the more recent hikes.  In the North County of NY state that day, there were scattered showers and fog, which at times obscured the views from the vistas.  But on occasions, the region had breaks of sunshine off in the distance, so there were some good views of the peak foliage.  Now, one of the vistas I was at, it was raining there, but with breaks of sun in the distance.  The result: a view of peak foliage with a rainbow! Here is the picture:

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 9f516610

Magnificent photo Mike! You have a great eye.In the back of my mind, I heard Judy Garland singing "Somewhere Over The Rainbow'.

40 degrees, clear, calm.Jman on to something with this weekend storm, NWS on it too.Saturday here only a high of 53 with rain.That's late November weather!

Interesting you referenced the Wizard of Oz.  So you know how on a lot of hiking trails, there are various trail markers indicated by colors such as blue, red and yellow, which are marked on either trees in plain sight or, if there aren't any trees in the vicinity, markers on the rocks/path.  A good chunk of the time we (and I say that because I was with a few others) were on the yellow trail and near one of the vistas, when determining the direction to take, we saw it by the yellow rectangle and the arrow indicating where to go.  So me and someone else happened to say "Follow the yellow brick road." Then right afterwards we realized that we referenced the same film that featured "Somewhere over the rainbow"

Also, at some of those vistas, it was 30s and windy (wind chills near 10), but all that hiking did not make it feel as cold.

Must have picked up on those brain waves there,Mike,LOL.

Very familiar with the trail systems and colored markers in the Ramapo Reservation area of NJ where, back in the day, I did a lot of hiking.Always carried trail maps and a compass.It is a lot of fun.

46 degrees, clear, calm.
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 11, 2023 10:51 am

Another rainy weekend on tap - Lovely and a 2nd storm widweek as advertised by models:

GIF won't post
Stills:
October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15


October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_neus_19

EURO more bullish on precip and rains
October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Ecmwf_apcpn_neus_30

Good thing this wasn't winter cause we went from a Godzilla (HECS) to a Monthra (SECS possible MECS)!! Big time suppression of energy by a PV Lobe over SE Canada

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 11, 2023 11:58 am

Dr Cohen says End of October is cold in NE

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8KfsScWoAAqIW2?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 11, 2023 12:42 pm

amugs wrote:Dr Cohen says End of October is cold in NE

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8KfsScWoAAqIW2?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

I hate when we get early season Strat PV disruptions. It always seems to snap back after during climatological winter and fights us. We shall see.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:07 am

Upton's attempt at this weekend:

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 StormTotalQPF_SFC

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 12, 2023 2:38 pm

sroc4 wrote:Upton's attempt at this weekend:

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 StormTotalQPF_SFC
"Attempt" lol, well they usually are conservative but a inch and a half is enough, do we have a idea of start and end time? Is this a Sat morning to Sunday evening type deal or will any of Saturday be salvaged? I noted it says 8am sat but that is the period does it start that early or later?
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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 12, 2023 2:54 pm

The storm does seem a bit more south than before. 67 now. Was 38 this morninh
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 12, 2023 9:15 pm

NWS lowered totals below a inch for most, hoping it continues to 0 and misses completely.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Oct 12, 2023 10:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Dr Cohen says End of October is cold in NE

October Obs & Discussions - Page 3 F8KfsScWoAAqIW2?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

I hate when we get early season Strat PV disruptions.  It always seems to snap back after during climatological winter and fights us.  We shall see.  

I usually don’t disagree, but I have a reason to think that this one might be different. Although, I think the GFS is rushing it a bit.

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