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December 2023 Observations and Discussion

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by 1190ftalt Mon Dec 11, 2023 11:10 am

11:00 am and 36 degrees, finished with 1 1/2 inch snow on cars and maybe inch on grass, no sticking to road or side walk so no snow shoveling!December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 464eff10
December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 28dabb10
December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 8d290010

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by GreyBeard Mon Dec 11, 2023 11:44 am

sroc4 wrote:5.5” in my gauge this am.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Img_7210

Amazing how you can hold your rain gauge horizontally like that without spilling any water Smile

How were the winds out your way?

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 11, 2023 12:51 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
sroc4 wrote:5.5” in my gauge this am.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Img_7210

Amazing how you can hold your rain gauge horizontally like that without spilling any water  Smile

How were the winds out your way?

lol! lol!

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.business-science.io%2Fassets%2F2020-10-07-automate-excel%2Fmagic

When I was falling asleep last nights around 11pm winds really were howling. In my neighborhood only small branches etc scattered about. So overall def could have been worse

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:35 pm

Hey all, wow to rb who swore no one was go see snow and he jackpotted. From now on I am going to predict no or little snow lol. Scott amazing magic, in New Rochelle, winds were ripping the street lights were flying all over the place and my jobs door really did hit me in the a## on the way out lol. And on the way in. A few spots of damage biggest one of my clients had a tree fall and snap the pole. All the wind was after around 11am today.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:37 pm

Bastardi hinted at a major storm for midatlantic next weekend too with high winds and rain. have not looked into it much yet. Presume it will be rain, here anyways. Rb you already topped my snowfall from last year lol
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 12, 2023 11:49 am

This to me is an eye opening stat. WOW!

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Captur19

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 13, 2023 7:30 am

I wonder if any of our statisticians know what the longest stretch is without an inch of snowfall in NYC…?

@CPcantmeasuresnow @Math23x7

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Wed Dec 13, 2023 8:11 am

27* for my low in a low amplitude phase 6 - incredible

Xmas miracle that we may be in phase 8 by then. I'll also put in the long range thread.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 ECMF


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 13, 2023 12:05 pm

Central Park running +4 temps as of 12/12 and hit freezing only 1 time so far with a T of snow. I have little doubt that at least +2 temps for the month at CPK. I was certainly hoping normal ~4" of snow fall would be achieved. I don't think we want to challenge the stats on no measurable now fall for December there and seeing what typically occurs for rest of winter.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Centra10

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 13, 2023 1:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Central Park running +4 temps as of 12/12 and hit freezing only 1 time so far with a T of snow. I have little doubt that at least +2 temps for the month at CPK. I was certainly hoping normal ~4" of snow fall would be achieved. I don't think we want to challenge the stats on no measurable now fall for December there and seeing what typically occurs for rest of winter.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Centra10

42 degrees, mostly sunny, slight breeze.

Whatever you do,CP, DO NOT look at heehaw's post here.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by GreyBeard Wed Dec 13, 2023 7:23 pm

Currently sitting at 40°.

If you're a stargazer, tonight is supposed to be the peak of the Geminid meteor shower. Supposed to get better as the night progresses. Here's an article for anyone interested.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/geminids-meteor-shower-where-see-peak-times-2023-rcna129068

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Dec 13, 2023 8:38 pm

Thanks for the heads up GreyBeard! If only it wasn’t cold out! Lol. I remember learning that the Geminid meteor stream was found to be formed like a thick-walled, hollow pipe. So, kind of like a Hurricane with its eye wall, we see a meteor shower as Earth passes through the first wall and ‘enters’ the stream, then we see less as the earth continues through the mostly empty center of the stream, and then we get another burst of visible activity as we exit the stream through another layer of debris. If I recall correctly, it takes the earth a little over 24 hours to pass through each actual wall. But even if that is true, we must be able to see much of the meteor activity for days before and after we pass through each wall. Again, anssuming all that is still held to be true. I guess we are exiting the stream bc the story GreyBeard linked said the show started last month and is expected to still be visible for another few days…

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by GreyBeard Wed Dec 13, 2023 9:02 pm

You are certainly right about the cold SENJ. You've got a good memory to recall all that you posted. I don't think I will be able to do all that the article suggests such as lay on my back with my feet pointing south, waiting 1/2 hr. for my eyes to adjust to the dark etc. I did make an attempt, however brief, to check it out but all I saw was blinking lights from the jets overhead. I might give it another shot a little later since they say the best viewing time is after midnight. Hope you enjoy the show...

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:59 am

GreyBeard wrote:You are certainly right about the cold SENJ. You've got a good memory to recall all that you posted. I don't think I will be able to do all that the article suggests such as lay on my back with my feet pointing south, waiting 1/2 hr. for my eyes to adjust to the dark etc. I did make an attempt, however brief, to check it out but all I saw was blinking lights from the jets overhead. I might give it another shot a little later since they say the best viewing time is after midnight. Hope you enjoy the show...

30 degrees, clear calm.To rb's prediction, we have the moisture on board and cold seems to be seeping in as he mentions.

I remember one meteor shower many years go, probaby the late 90's, where I was young enough to stand out of doors in the cold for an hour and the show was amazing.One every minute.Today, if I lay on my back with my feet pointing South, just dig a grave next to me and push me in, I am not getting up,LOL.Like that commercial, "I've fallen and I can't get up"!Hope anybody who watched last night saw a great show.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 14, 2023 7:38 am

Ahead of the coastal storm Sunday into Monday, we’re looking at a 3-day mild spell starting tomorrow. Temps should get into the upper 40’s, then we’re looking at 50s and MAYBE low 60s over the weekend. Rain moves in Sunday afternoon.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:22 am

22 was my low at 7 AM. CPK hit 33. The urban heat effect in play and it's telling tale when they've only hit 32 once so far in December. We just haven't had any shot of cold air so far this December as there's not a lot to be had this side of the globe.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:24 am

heehaw453 wrote:22 was my low at 7 AM. CPK hit 33. The urban heat effect in play and it's telling tale when they've only hit 32 once so far in December. We just haven't had any shot of cold air so far this December as there's not a lot to be had this side of the globe.
yup so far December has been a disappointment besides seeing a couple of snow showers and flakes a big yawn. But I hope everyone is right about the pattern change coming in New Year’s and January. Let’s hope this is a cold and snowy pattern

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:45 am

This last one didn't produce much but if this system winds up as shown watch out for those winds. Compliments of Bastardi (said these remind him of Isiais, but that was tropical so not sure how that would compare and w2as a heck of a lot worse than this in my area I think we peaked in the 60s maybe 70 mph. I don't have the wxbell rainfall map maybe someone else does, looks like 1-2 can be seen easily though. Not hopeful for any snow at least down here. Hope Rb is right for interior.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Gbr9l710
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Post by frank 638 Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:This last one didn't produce much but if this system winds up as shown watch out for those winds. Compliments of Bastardi (said these remind him of Isiais, but that was tropical so not sure how that would compare and w2as a heck of a lot worse than this in my area I think we peaked in the 60s maybe 70 mph. I don't have the wxbell rainfall map maybe someone else does, looks like 1-2 can be seen easily though. Not hopeful for any snow at least down here. Hope Rb is right for interior.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Gbr9l710
i hope we don’t get this type of winds this insane.the ground is saturated less thing we need to lose power especially this time of the year when it’s freezing cold at night

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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 16, 2023 6:45 am

38 degrees, clear, calm.
Calm before the huge rainstorm.This brings rain all the way up to the tip of Maine.Warm air brought in by the storm track.Moisture again is here but no cold air because of the PAC jet and storm track.Hope it changes as this pattern has been locked in since Nov 1.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:43 am

I can’t believe this morning it’s 45°. It’s so warm out it feels like spring. I noticed some of the bushes has some yellow flowers going on them. it doesn’t feel like Christmas at all like Easter lol

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:28 am

Central Park +3.8 temps for December as of 12/15. It will be ~+5 in a few days. I expect end of month to run at least +2.5. When we lost AO support and have no established cold air that is expected.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Cpk11

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:32 am

frank 638 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:22 was my low at 7 AM. CPK hit 33. The urban heat effect in play and it's telling tale when they've only hit 32 once so far in December. We just haven't had any shot of cold air so far this December as there's not a lot to be had this side of the globe.
yup so far December has been a disappointment besides seeing a couple of snow showers and flakes a big yawn. But I hope everyone is right about the pattern change coming in New Year’s and January. Let’s hope this is a cold and snowy pattern

Keep an eye on period right after Christmas to New Year. If there is any snow to be had in December for NYC that is the time it might occur.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:16 pm

50 finally finished my Xmas shopping


Last edited by frank 638 on Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:20 pm; edited 1 time in total

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:19 pm

[quote="frank 638"]Looks like April then December December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Img_4311[url=https://servimg.com/view/19403139/4]

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 16, 2023 5:02 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Central Park +3.8 temps for December as of 12/15. It will be ~+5 in a few days. I expect end of month to run at least +2.5. When we lost AO support and have no established cold air that is expected.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 8 Cpk11

And what most people overlook is the normals that we compare it against which are now the 1991 to 2020 30 year period are way above the norm from the period of 1951 to 1980, or any other 30 year average you want to pick previous to this one.

If we compared it to the normal then it would be about 6 1/2° above normal, sad to think about that. We just live in a time where December is just mophing into an extended fall month.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:53 pm

2009 since last white Christmas in Central Park. It's ~9 days away so I shouldn't be too presumptuous on the streak continuing but I feel pretty confident it does.

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