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DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:26 pm

Will be interessted to see at the last 6pm briefing by NWS ups nyc area to warning winds and increases rains based on the above images I think it is possible. As I posted the already upped my area from 40-50 to 45-55. Stayed the same with 3-5 inches rain, but I agree mugs will see areas with significantly more, I think traverl rush hour is no bueno.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:39 pm

dsix85 wrote:Two big claps of thunder in Manorville. Sroc, did you hear it?
Yup a few lightning strikes based on this website, it is accurate and a great resource.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;z=10;y=40.8231;x=-73.0078;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

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Post by phil155 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here is my call after looking at latest radar, PWAT Maps. This bad boy is going to overperform
Coastal Flooding will be moderate tomorrow morning at high tide for NJ Coast LI and NYC harbor.
Winds overperform, power outages light up like a Xmas tree. 
Flash Flooding may rival some of the ones we had the last few years.
Storm is overperforming bigly down south, you have a massive fetch of moisture from the Carribean and the thunderstorms n tornados  = latent heat release.  Lastly, moderate  geomagnetic storm will enhance the storm as it has in the past.   

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 7 Nam3km17
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 7 Img_7610
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 7 Hrrr-n11
If that 3km NAM wind transpires we are all in big trouble, thats close to 70mph IMBY and in 2020 the TS Isiais did not gust that high IMBY, my only hope is that since then there have been fewer and fewer trees in my area (complimernts of numerous storms over the years, kinda sad plus they cut down a lot. I find it hilarious they are setting up for a movie shoot tonight in my neighborhood from 8pm to 6am. So I will be watching for flying cameras too lol. What is the last rain model you posted, thats some serious flooding 6-8+ inches just west of NYC yikes. Not to mention the soft ground will not help with downing trees. Be safe all.

I think the nam precip totals are likely pretty close to what we will see, I am no expert but I think a general 2-3 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts especially west and north. Just my opinion based on what I am seeing, I think(hope) the 18z hrrr is a bit over done on the actual totals but again I no expert

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:01 pm

NWS update now upped to localized 5-6 inches, this is getting serious, holding on the winds though like mugs I think they overperform especially eastern NJ and on east to cape cod. Calling for isloated gusts to 65mph in warning areas.

Briefing:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/12172023_pmPUBLIC.pdf
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:05 pm

Way overperforming to the south in carolinas per WPC localized areas have seen 4-8 inches.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:12 pm

Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:28 pm

Just got a text alert from Con Ed about the storm and outages.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Just got a text alert from Con Ed about the storm and outages.
yup and I got a phone call as well from con ed about the storm

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.

and you told me it would just be a breezy day with some rain...LOL Holy Crap saw Providence might get up to 6 inches..URGH
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it

Hey Frank, can you take a peek at the Providence area and see if its going to be as bad?? I heard up to 6 inches of rain.. and high wind warnings..I am very worried.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:53 pm

Currently a balmy 55°.Temp has actually gone up a couple of degrees since this afternoon. Just now a light rain has begun but no winds yet to speak of. I'm sure once this thing gets crankin' that will change. Looking at radar, seems the heavy bands are inland.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:02 pm

Heavy rain has begun here in the LHV.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:11 pm

dsix85 wrote:Two big claps of thunder in Manorville. Sroc, did you hear it?

I just got home from Rye NY. Family Christmas party with second and third cousins. Wasn’t on LI all day.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:16 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.

and you told me it would just be a breezy day with some rain...LOL Holy Crap saw Providence might get up to 6 inches..URGH
Where did you see that? The heaviest rains look to be west of western CT, yeah I was dead wrong. Hey, can't always be right. Safge travels to your son but does he have to travel tomorrow morning? Yes HWW are up the wind will be worse from LI to Cape Cod, gusts will likely be 60mph in that area, maybe higher. I would not worry too much (we have seen much worse and survived), but if he has to travel I would hold off ontil late Monday or Tuesday.

Update I looked, 2-4 rain is safe bet in Providence area (of course could locally be more as you know).
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:24 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Currently a balmy 55°.Temp has actually gone up a couple of degrees since this afternoon. Just now a light rain has begun but no winds yet to speak of. I'm sure once this thing gets crankin' that will change. Looking at radar, seems the heavy bands are inland.
I would not expect much wind until after midnight and the highest point 3am to 11am.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.

and you told me it would just be a breezy day with some rain...LOL Holy Crap saw Providence might get up to 6 inches..URGH
Where did you see that? The heaviest rains look to be west of western CT, yeah I was dead wrong. Hey, can't always be right. Safge travels to your son but does he have to travel tomorrow morning? Yes HWW are up the wind will be worse from LI to Cape Cod, gusts will likely be 60mph in that area, maybe higher. I would not worry too much (we have seen much worse and survived), but if he has to travel I would hold off ontil late Monday or Tuesday.

Update I looked, 2-4 rain is safe bet in Providence area (of course could locally be more as you know).
he is out of the dorm tom afternoon we are bringing him home by train vs car. He scheduled a Lyft to get into Providence ..he should be fine, but  these are the first times he is traveling by himself..so as a mom I am worried..lol husband not but I will be happy once safely home..lol and rob marchiano on the news showed that area in the up to 6 inches so let's hope it's not right..but they do have high wind warnings..
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:38 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.

and you told me it would just be a breezy day with some rain...LOL Holy Crap saw Providence might get up to 6 inches..URGH
Where did you see that? The heaviest rains look to be west of western CT, yeah I was dead wrong. Hey, can't always be right. Safge travels to your son but does he have to travel tomorrow morning? Yes HWW are up the wind will be worse from LI to Cape Cod, gusts will likely be 60mph in that area, maybe higher. I would not worry too much (we have seen much worse and survived), but if he has to travel I would hold off ontil late Monday or Tuesday.

Update I looked, 2-4 rain is safe bet in Providence area (of course could locally be more as you know).
he is out of the dorm tom afternoon we are bringing him home by train vs car. He scheduled a Lyft to get into Providence ..he should be fine, but  these are the first times he is traveling by himself..so as a mom I am worried..lol husband not but I will be happy once safely home..lol and rob marchiano on the news showed that area in the up to 6 inches so let's hope it's not right..but they do have high wind warnings..
I get it, your his mom its understandable. You can always check NWS MA/RI for all the info your asking. Yes the high winds will be the most impactful thing in most areas, worse as you go further east so his area, only good news is that Providence is pretty well inland so its not right on the coast where the worst winds will be.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:02 pm

SPC added marginal risk for the area for severe t-storms.
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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:12 pm

It is only misting here. No wind. 47
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:13 pm

18z GFS, maybe SR models aren't over doing the winds, the extent westward they have is overdown but the GFS seems possible. These per JB "his is like a hurricane. Strong winds east of track, heaviest rains west. Plenty of power outages coming for coastal areas Delmarva to New England tonight. Inland spared the powerful winds, but gets the flooding rains. Reminds me of Isaias"

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 7 Gblyem10

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 7 Gblydn10

Parents are in central coastal CT (New Havent County right off the shore) where it says 75mph, they filled up the tub for toilet flushing and bottles of water. In rural area power goes out water pump and everything else goes out. I'll never forget Hurricane Bob, my dad and I drove down road to a creek with a basin and filled it with water (clean creek) and drove it back at 2mph to not cause it to splash all over car.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:18 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:14 pm

dkodgis wrote:It is only misting here. No wind. 47
Wind will be well after midnight. into midday tomorrow, go be a nightmare commute, if you even want to try.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:01 pm

b ased on radar looks like almost all the rain is well off to the west and moving NW, is this storm coming in more west? if so I think we can expect higher end winds and less rain? Huge gap for majority of area for rain, I presume it will fill in over night but underwhelming for the next several hours at least. You can certainly see the rotation and center is still way down in carolinas, long way to go.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 17, 2023 10:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.

I think 60+ mph gusts NYC east are likely. I don’t think winds west of NYC will be as bad. But with all of the rain we’re getting, it won’t take much for there to be wind damage.

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Post by GreyBeard Sun Dec 17, 2023 10:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:b ased on radar looks like almost all the rain is well off to the west and moving NW, is this storm coming in more west? if so I think we can expect higher end winds and less rain? Huge gap for majority of area for rain, I presume it will fill in over night but underwhelming for the next several hours at least. You can certainly see the rotation and center is still way down in carolinas, long way to go.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar


I was thinking the same thing jman. Looks like central PA. has been getting hammered while up to this point I have been getting dry slotted, which is fine by me. It's pretty wild how far north you have to go before there is a changeover to snow. All the way to Hudson Bay.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 10:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Radar looks impressive. I guess the RGEM from 2 days ago had a clue. The models all caved to it
And I believe you said toss to me, hey I honestly wasn't expect it either. Whats your thoughts on the wind threat? The models as mugs posted are still really bullish and scary if true, not buying the 3km NAM verbatim but do you think this will actually play out to at least the NWS warnings and advisories rather than nothing like last week? Just curious on ur opinion, I have mine and mugs appears to agree.

I think 60+ mph gusts NYC east are likely. I don’t think winds west of NYC will be as bad. But with all of the rain we’re getting, it won’t take much for there to be wind damage.
I am 1 block from the bronx so i guess that includes me. And im surprised we are in the afvisory but 15 miles east of here is under hww. And how long duration at approx what time? I know sorry thats a lot questions. Im go bed but i want get up when it is supposed to be ripping.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 10:46 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:b ased on radar looks like almost all the rain is well off to the west and moving NW, is this storm coming in more west? if so I think we can expect higher end winds and less rain? Huge gap for majority of area for rain, I presume it will fill in over night but underwhelming for the next several hours at least. You can certainly see the rotation and center is still way down in carolinas, long way to go.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar


I was thinking the same thing jman. Looks like central PA. has been getting hammered while up to this point I have been getting dry slotted, which is fine by me. It's pretty wild how far north you have to go before there is a changeover to snow. All the way to Hudson Bay.
be glad its not snow then as this would suck. Nam shows it picking up fairly fast overnight and i think nyc on east is ripping winds by early morning into late morning possibly. Nw of nyc flooding go be biggest issue but as frank just posted with all this rain there will b wind damage.
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