DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

rb924119 wrote:Ok, NAM looks like it wants to take my ideas to the limit. It holds the southern stream back so long that it actually looks like it would give the northern stream system time to phase in BEFORE the southern stream reaches our latitude, or at least as the southern stream would arrive. First model to actually show this, but the GEM was close the other day. It’s nice to see, even if it is the 18z NAM at hour 84 aha

Hey Ray, What result would that yield inland and to the coast?

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, NAM looks like it wants to take my ideas to the limit. It holds the southern stream back so long that it actually looks like it would give the northern stream system time to phase in BEFORE the southern stream reaches our latitude, or at least as the southern stream would arrive. First model to actually show this, but the GEM was close the other day. It’s nice to see, even if it is the 18z NAM at hour 84 aha

Hey Ray, What result would that yield inland and to the coast?

Certainly an increased likelihood of seeing at least some snow, for everybody.

rb924119 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Weather app now showing snow showers Tuesday night  with 1-3 inches expected. It's never been reliable and precipitation probability is 50% so I take with a grain of salt, but it's interesting it's even mentioning anything now several days after our experts began to sniff it out.

WTS even if it happens one snowfall does not mean winter exists, but it would be a good start for those trying to prove it still does.

You should move up here, CP, we still have a snowpack of 4” up here since it snowed earlier in the week aha winter mode has been fully engaged lol

You're obviously back in the Poconos and not the Jersey shore. What elevation are you at? We're only at 600 feet asl where I am so hard to compete with whatever you're at 1500-2000 feet?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Weather app now showing snow showers Tuesday night  with 1-3 inches expected. It's never been reliable and precipitation probability is 50% so I take with a grain of salt, but it's interesting it's even mentioning anything now several days after our experts began to sniff it out.

WTS even if it happens one snowfall does not mean winter exists, but it would be a good start for those trying to prove it still does.

You should move up here, CP, we still have a snowpack of 4” up here since it snowed earlier in the week aha winter mode has been fully engaged lol

You're obviously back in the Poconos and not the Jersey shore. What elevation are you at? We're only at 600 feet asl where I am so hard to compete with whatever you're at 1500-2000 feet?

Haha correct! It’s a long story, but I’ll be updating my location soon lol we average about 1800’. My house technically sits at about 1700’, though.

heehaw453 wrote:I'm going to play devils advocate to sroc. Once it closes off it has all the cold air it needs from the polar jet. I would argue the ridge bridge keeps the storm consolidated, allows it to close off and will aid in slowing it down. I think if you didn't have that ridge bridge this has no chance for much impact to us. I'm still skeptical it will, but there is a path.

I think if we don't get that ridge bridge on top we get a strung out ULL which is no bueno. That's where my head it at with this. Can this ULL consolidate, deepen and close before it hits the coast? Now it's not as simple as ridge bridge or not. Depends on the angle of the phase, strength of the energy involved, but a consolidated closed off ULL is necessary here.

I am skeptical because of the energies involved just need so much interaction for this to occur the right way. If this works out then you kind of know this winter is just going to find a way...

Strung out ULL no good



Consolidated ULL very good

heehaw453 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:I'm going to play devils advocate to sroc. Once it closes off it has all the cold air it needs from the polar jet. I would argue the ridge bridge keeps the storm consolidated, allows it to close off and will aid in slowing it down. I think if you didn't have that ridge bridge this has no chance for much impact to us. I'm still skeptical it will, but there is a path.

I think if we don't get that ridge bridge on top we get a strung out ULL which is no bueno. That's where my head it at with this. Can this ULL consolidate, deepen and close before it hits the coast? Now it's not as simple as ridge bridge or not. Depends on the angle of the phase, strength of the energy involved, but a consolidated closed off ULL is necessary here.

I am skeptical because of the energies involved just need so much interaction for this to occur the right way. If this works out then you kind of know this winter is just going to find a way...

Strung out ULL no good



Consolidated ULL very good

Maybe but look at the differences in the temps at 850 between the GFS and the GEM you show here.  To a certain degree I agree but in this case the antecedent air mass is so warm ahead of this N piece, closing off at 500 still shuts the door to the cold air.  GFS you get freezing line well off the coast as the cold air pours in; whereas the GEM has the freezing line onshore throughout NE. The images below are the same time stamps for the images you posted.




If you zoom out you can see what happens to the cold air when it closes off.  The closed low on the GEM shows the coldest anomalies are centered over WV/Ohio valley and are actually warmer well to the north, because the door to the cold air has been shutwhereas the GFS there is still a direct link to the cold to the north.
Now in fairness it just has to be cold enough.  




To be honest on the 18z GFS, 12 hrs faster with the N piece or 12 hrs slower with the southern and we get a straight up phase with both pieces and BOOM.  Maybe pump the PNA ridge just a little more please and thank you.



The N energy is still located up in the top left of the image below at the time the 18z initialized.  We still have a day or two to go before we zero in on the final soln here.  

Look at this 500mb, I have to say I dont give a rats behind what he surface says this can produce




GEFS are on board for keeping the door open and dropping the cold air in. Please it shows great potential and lets see where it goes.

NAM throwing a major curveball here gang……may the insanity continue! Haha

rb924119 wrote:NAM throwing a major curveball here gang……may the insanity continue! Haha

Yup. PNA going up. Slower with the southern piece coming up. Gives the norther piece time to catch up extrapolating that might have been a monster

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:NAM throwing a major curveball here gang……may the insanity continue! Haha

Yup. PNA going up. Slower with the southern piece coming up. Gives the norther piece time to catch up extrapolating that might have been a monster

But it turns into more of a frontal wave, whereas before it was a well-developed maturing cyclone….kinda weird that the middle piece never phased.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:NAM throwing a major curveball here gang……may the insanity continue! Haha

Yup. PNA going up. Slower with the southern piece coming up. Gives the norther piece time to catch up extrapolating that might have been a monster

But it turns into more of a frontal wave, whereas before it was a well-developed maturing cyclone….kinda weird that the middle piece never phased.

Ahh. I see what you mean. It ejects out. The two “pacific s/w I outlined come together and a small piece breaks off the sw side and phases with the stj over the gom. Then the middle piece ejects out, new southern piece comes up as the N piece is digging in.

NAM doing magic mushrooms maybe?   Lol

So no cold air as in below 32 degrees ?

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:NAM throwing a major curveball here gang……may the insanity continue! Haha

Yup. PNA going up. Slower with the southern piece coming up. Gives the norther piece time to catch up extrapolating that might have been a monster

But it turns into more of a frontal wave, whereas before it was a well-developed maturing cyclone….kinda weird that the middle piece never phased.

Ahh. I see what you mean. It ejects out. The two “pacific s/w I outlined come together and a small piece breaks off the sw side and phases with the stj over the gom. Then the middle piece ejects out, new southern piece comes up as the N piece is digging in.

NAM doing magic mushrooms maybe?   Lol

Yeah, exactly. And I have no idea haha

I know we all want snow but if the 00z GFS plays out we are in for some serious wind problems HWW criteria for a huge area, gusts near hurricane force along LI elsewhere 50-65mph (yes this is verbatim and likely is not going to be the true outcome, last time was almost nothing so). Just is a much more impressive wind map and dynamic powerful system than last weeks. Compliments of JB.

We are now SO close to something memorable lol the 00z Euro is about 8-12 hours away from the stuff that dreams are made of; can we get there?

Wave spacing may be a pretty big hindrance. I know we need the first rain wave to provide the backside highway for the polar wave to drop in, but if it doesn’t phase in with the initial storm and rather follows it up I’m not sure there will be enough room/space/time/juice left for it to do it’s own thing.

MattyICE wrote:Wave spacing may be a pretty big hindrance. I know we need the first rain wave to provide the backside highway for the polar wave to drop in, but if it doesn’t phase in with the initial storm and rather follows it up I’m not sure there will be enough room/space/time/juice left for it to do it’s own thing.

Was thinking the same thing. Let’s see if this thing conts to evolve, for better or worse over the next 24 hrs. Time starting to run out.

MattyICE wrote:Wave spacing may be a pretty big hindrance. I know we need the first rain wave to provide the backside highway for the polar wave to drop in, but if it doesn’t phase in with the initial storm and rather follows it up I’m not sure there will be enough room/space/time/juice left for it to do it’s own thing.

This guy is killing our chances for the reasons you mention. It’s a little annoying how these pac s/w seem to be cutting off by the time they drop into the CONUS. That’s a trend I would like to see go away.

This is going to be one heck of a storm no matter what as modelled.

Piggy back on what Frank said. That northern piece breaking through the ridge does two things: 1/it dampens the ridge in the west, 2/just as importantly it allows the block to be stronger off SE Greenland.
So instead of a maturing ULL that hits the coast and closes off you have an ULL that has less spin and being pushed on harder by the stronger block. So it basically elongates and loses consolidation.  It's not a done deal yet by any means. The 500mb trough being negative usually means more precip than what you are seeing on surface panels right now, but to the get bigger solution we need that ULL consolidating as it hits the coast not elongating. I want to go back to seeing a ridge connect which i think helps both 1&2.

amugs wrote:This is going to be one heck of a storm no matter what as modelled.

i posted the winds above. Hww criteria for much of ny state and new england. Pushing hurricane force on LI. This could been a roid if we had cold air. Even if it can create its own i dont think coast sees but wet flskes. Mugs do u have latest wind map from wxbell to go with those rain maps?

jmanley32 wrote:I know we all want snow but if the 00z GFS plays out we are in for some serious wind problems HWW criteria for a huge area, gusts near hurricane force along LI elsewhere 50-65mph (yes this is verbatim and likely is not going to be the true outcome, last time was almost nothing so). Just is a much more impressive wind map and dynamic powerful system than last weeks. Compliments of JB.

Reember this is the ensemble and blend from 0z

I don’t know why, but I have this feeling that today is going to bring us more surprises with this storm lol

For starters, it looks like the 12z NAM is trying to phase that pesky middle energy into the southern stream system again…..

It’s also weaker with the southern stream.

I find it interesting how models are bringing the circulations up inside of the coast. Typically, when you see a ridge axis through Idaho, you’re golden to be on the west/cold side of a developing East Coast cyclone. Not too sure I buy such a western track……especially since the cold is pushing.

rb924119 wrote:I find it interesting how models are bringing the circulations up inside of the coast. Typically, when you see a ridge axis through Idaho, you’re golden to be on the west/cold side of a developing East Coast cyclone. Not too sure I buy such a western track……especially since the cold is pushing.

Perhaps the cold isn't pushing as hard as originally thought due to some of the prev stated mechanisms?