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DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:59 am

amugs wrote:NWS Upton always underplay every storm until 16-24 hours before hand. When we realize this we'll be not shocked when then come out with their forecast as they have.   

Its going to be a humdinger of a storm. Any Christmas Decorations outside are susceptible to the winds. Waiting to see what track tjis shall take and the effects to the pattern ahead.
see jb post i posted above of the gusts on 3km nam as high as 80 to 100mph. Even well inland 50mph into central nys. Coast 65 to 75 mph on that run. The higher mainly over water. That run too is far west i believe thats why and i think nws may be agree. I have to look at their discusdion. Id take 10 to 15mph off the 3km nam but thats still really not good. Mom your concern is real and nws bumped up the winds significantly in latest briefing. I think it could go up even more in tonights unless a far offshore run is the final outcome. The rain will def be a issue some places. Have not seen bronx river but it doesnt take much and many urban low lying aread. May be a work from home day monday. I hate the inflatables but may be watching them fly by if im up lol. I expect power putages msybe even widespread if the more extreme occurs.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:09 am

I'm assuming any talk of snow for Tuesday/Wednesday is no longer even a possibility.

Please no more MJO dot plot graphics. I find them about as reliable more than a week out as the 60-90 forecast on AccuWeather.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:17 am

There’s definitely a continuing trend of slowing the southern stream down. In addition to that, and getting back to my comments last night, as a result of the incoming northern stream combined with the approach of the southern stream, there are going to be massive height falls across the Northeast. These massive height falls also mean a drastically cooling atmospheric column. This should , in theory, work to limit the westward extent of the warm advection associated with the warm sector of the developing cyclone, and also limit the extent to which the height field can amplify immediately ahead of the approaching southern stream. As a result, we should see a more southwest-northeast trajectory of the southern stream low and mid-level lows (850 hPa, 700 hPa, and 500 hPa), which would mean an overall further east and somewhat less amplified southern stream system. This would also fit the idea of the pattern alignment (i.e. ridge axis through Idaho should yield an offshore track). Even though the southern stream will be less amplified, this does not mean that the thermal advection will be lacking. With the rapidly cooling column, this should work to enhance the thermal gradient and really tighten it up so that basically anywhere about 25-50 miles to the west and northwest of the low and mid-level circulations (850 hPa and 700 hPa) should see at least some snow, as all of the forcing mechanisms in play should support continued precipitation as the strong cold advection undercuts it.

Hopefully that makes a little sense, and we’ll see what happens. I just don’t see this running inside the coast, I really don’t.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:28 am

Thanks Rb and nice explanation. To me this h5 looks more like the solutions before. Less interference from the northern stream. Quick handoff and close the door. But that ULL is going to need to be deeper and close off better for this to work IMO.

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 5 Euro141

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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:43 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm assuming any talk of snow for Tuesday/Wednesday is no longer even a possibility.

Please no more MJO dot plot graphics. I find them about as reliable more than a week out as the 60-90 forecast on AccuWeather.

CP, expect nothing but be surprised with something.Right now,NWS has heavy rain all the way up to Northern Maine.Looking dim unless a last minute curveball helps us out.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:06 am

Radar of the CONUS is cool showing the pieces of this thing ATM.Lot's of GOM moisture there.
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Post by kalleg Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:08 am

NWS for New Hope, SNOW SHOWERS in the forecast!

Monday Night A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:59 pm

I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:35 pm

I agree, Frank. Only thing I differ with is for places along and west of the Delaware River, where I think there will be a transition to snow on the back side during the day on Monday, especially in elevated areas.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:23 pm

12z rgem is crazy with long duration flooding rain with a narrow swath up to 8 incges in LI snd CT and hww level winds just n&w of nyc to cape cod. Not saying this will happen but sr models have this really amped. And yes has back end snow but way way inland.
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Post by deadrabbit79 Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.

With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:14 pm

deadrabbit79 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.

With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?

I kinda like how the EURO depicts rainfall for this storm. The mean is 2-3” with pockets of more than 3” over areas where heavier bands set up. The upper level low does not stay closed off. By the time it reaches the Delmarva it becomes an open wave which allows vorticity to escape east.

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 5 Img_6616

I know Ray discussed this..but…this was very close to being a widespread blizzard for the area. Makes me want to puke thinking about it. Oh well. Onto the next one


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:14 pm

rb924119 wrote:I agree, Frank. Only thing I differ with is for places along and west of the Delaware River, where I think there will be a transition to snow on the back side during the day on Monday, especially in elevated areas.

I see it for elevated areas!

jmanley32 wrote:12z rgem is crazy with long duration flooding rain with a narrow swath up to 8 incges in LI snd CT and hww level winds just n&w of nyc to cape cod. Not saying this will happen but sr models have this really amped. And yes has back end snow but way way inland.

Outlier. Toss

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Post by kalleg Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:31 pm

NWS for New Hope has deleted the chance of snow on Monday, left a SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS for Tuesday morning...sigh...

Monday Night A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:37 pm

18z NAM precip totals

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 5 Img_6617

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:04 pm

If the ULL were a bit more consolidated, tilting negative before it hits the coast and strengthening, then I think there'd be a shot for a few to several inches of snow in the interior. What I see though is it weakens as it moves off the coast and is neutral tilt until clearing coast. It's not a temp thing but a vorticity thing at this point IMO. N/S interferes with height fields possibly as it gets pushed down.


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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
deadrabbit79 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.

With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?

I kinda like how the EURO depicts rainfall for this storm. The mean is 2-3” with pockets of more than 3” over areas where heavier bands set up. The upper level low does not stay closed off. By the time it reaches the Delmarva it becomes an open wave which allows vorticity to escape east.

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 5 Img_6616

I know Ray discussed this..but…this was very close to being a widespread blizzard for the area. Makes me want to puke thinking about it. Oh well. Onto the next one


A 1040+ mb H parked over Quebec pinned by 50/50 L which is pinned by -NAO yeah I think this would be pushing much more east and we'd in nirvana with this one. You don't have H and I say again the NAM state ruined this one for us...

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:26 pm

Recon flying around the Gulf.
1001mb. Dropsonde showed 35kts. Would make it Gale force already.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:32 pm

amugs wrote:Recon flying around the Gulf.
1001mb. Dropsonde showed 35kts. Would make it Gale force already.

Cool, wow they are taking this very seriously. IMO I think we all end up under HWW or far eastern NJ coast ,NYC Southern and maybe northern WC County and most likely to get these will obviosly be LI and Eastern CT/RI/MA. This thing is gonna be amped, Bastardi compared it the other day to TS Isiais where we were on the eastern side despite many here and forcasters thought we would be on the western side and see mainly rain but in fact we were on the eastern side and look what happened. Of course dynamics and time of year etc make this very different.. This looks to give us both. Even a WA though is gonna cause issues, this just feels very different to me than last weekend. NAM has 850 winds over 100mph in some spots, even close or along the coast, dunno what the 925's look like do you have that? Surface maps are decieving but 925's could tell us what could potentially mix down. NWS hasn't wavered on the final descision on the winds yet. Seems the rain amounts are pretty set but of course thats always a shot in the dark too as we could see places surpass 4 inches.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:35 pm

Recon found close to 75 kt flight level winds wow.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:42 pm

Wow HRDPS rainfall rates are insane verbatim. With this kind of rain I don't think those higher gusts have any issue mixing down, I know not a super reliable model but it still is a model.

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 5 Hrdps_11
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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:52 pm

As someone that lives at the jersey shore 6 blocks from the bay, should I be very worried about this wind?

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:00 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:As someone that lives at the jersey shore 6 blocks from the bay, should I be very worried about this wind?
I'd be concerned and coastal flooding is going to be moderate

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:03 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:As someone that lives at the jersey shore 6 blocks from the bay, should I be very worried about this wind?
Yes I would prepare for coastal flooding and the winds, though its only a wind advisory right now which is still strong I am surprised the whole area isnt under HW Watch or a Warning by now.
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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:16 pm

Thanks mugs and jman. I will keep a close eye on this.

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Post by New Yorker 234 Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:55 pm

Hi. May ask your advice? I have a flight leaving LGA Monday afternoon. Would you try to change it to Sunday morning or evening?

Thanks for any advice.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:20 pm

New Yorker 234 wrote:Hi. May ask your advice? I have a flight leaving LGA Monday afternoon. Would you try to change it to Sunday morning or evening?

Thanks for any advice.
This is a sunday into moday storm, by monday afternoon things will be starting to wind down i believe.
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