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DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

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Post by New Yorker 234 Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:55 pm

Hi. May ask your advice? I have a flight leaving LGA Monday afternoon. Would you try to change it to Sunday morning or evening?

Thanks for any advice.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:20 pm

New Yorker 234 wrote:Hi. May ask your advice? I have a flight leaving LGA Monday afternoon. Would you try to change it to Sunday morning or evening?

Thanks for any advice.
This is a sunday into moday storm, by monday afternoon things will be starting to wind down i believe.

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Post by New Yorker 234 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:21 pm

Thanks!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:29 pm

New Yorker 234 wrote:Thanks!
I would still check i9f Monday afternoon as there still could be delays this is also impacting from FL to maine so it also depends where you are going. if south of NYC you should be good monday afternoon but it will still be somehwat windy even into the afternoon, if your heading towards maine lets say no there will likely be cancelations or delays in that direction.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:05 pm

Definitely an east shift in the models with this circulation. Gives me more confidence in my ideas. It’s also interesting to see that they are flying recon missions into the southern stream. That should help, but I wish they’d do it while the northern stream is still over Canada, which relatively data-sparse.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 17, 2023 3:18 am

Weekends are synonymous with rain here lately.

̷W̷i̷n̷d̷s̷ ̷f̷o̷r̷ ̷m̷y̷ ̷a̷r̷e̷a̷ ̷f̷o̷r̷t̷u̷n̷a̷t̷e̷l̷y̷ ̷l̷o̷o̷k̷ ̷m̷o̷d̷e̷r̷a̷t̷e̷.̷ ̷M̷a̷y̷b̷e̷ ̷g̷u̷s̷t̷s̷ ̷o̷f̷ ̷3̷5̷ ̷m̷p̷h̷

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:26 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
deadrabbit79 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.

With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?

I kinda like how the EURO depicts rainfall for this storm. The mean is 2-3” with pockets of more than 3” over areas where heavier bands set up. The upper level low does not stay closed off. By the time it reaches the Delmarva it becomes an open wave which allows vorticity to escape east.

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Img_6616

I know Ray discussed this..but…this was very close to being a widespread blizzard for the area. Makes me want to puke thinking about it. Oh well. Onto the next one


Looks like the soaking rainstorm is going to happen.Could be up to 5 inches here in the LHV.
I don't feel too bad about this not being snow seeing it will be heavy rain all the way through Maine.A real kick in the head would be seeing 30 inches of snow in Central NY with heavy rain here.
Very close for an epic snowstorm but this pattern that has set up since Nov. 1 is relentless.Hopelfully, this storm shakes things up.Looming large here is "as December goes, so goes the winter"!
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Post by Radz Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:47 am

Calm before the storm, 45* wind light and variable, this pattern is the pits…
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Post by phil155 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:30 am

Radz wrote:Calm before the storm, 45* wind light and variable,  this pattern is the pits…

I agree and sadly this pattern seems to be hanging on

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Post by New Yorker 234 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:32 am

jmanley32 wrote:
New Yorker 234 wrote:Thanks!
I would still check i9f Monday afternoon as there still could be delays this is also impacting from FL to maine so it also depends where you are going. if south of NYC you should be good monday afternoon but it will still be somehwat windy even into the afternoon, if your heading towards maine lets say no there will likely be cancelations or delays in that direction.

Thanks. Heading south so I'll hope for the best.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:54 am

High wind warning up for all of LI queens and brooklyn and coastal CT. wind advisories elsewhere. Rain was increased to possible localized 5 inches now that is quite concerning thats on par with the storm we had back in the fall and ida. With the saturated ground i think that will only aid in uprooting trees id be ready for outages even in the advisory areas. I still think nyc sothern westchester and coastal nj could see 60 mph gusts imo.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:29 am

Models have upped rain totals in the last 12 hours. Looking more like a widespread 2.5”-3.5” with localized 5” amounts. The areas likely to see 4” or more of rain are CNJ, NNJ and SNY.

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:34 am

Frank do you think those totals and wind will be worst for coastal areas or inland?

Frank_Wx wrote:Models have upped rain totals in the last 12 hours. Looking more like a widespread 2.5”-3.5” with localized 5” amounts. The areas likely to see 4” or more of rain are CNJ, NNJ and SNY.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:36 am

The Grinch Storm 2023 is bearing down. We usually get a full blown cutter to wipe out snow OTG so this year most didn't have anything to erase so to me it doesn't sting as much.

Models indicate the heaviest precipitation falls on a narrow axis. As quiteace already stated so well this is not a set up for damaging winds IMO. Yes ELI and Cape Code may get some 50+ mph gusts but I believe that'd be a short window. There's simply no large pressure gradient to crank winds up with this. Moreover, the storm is moving quickly enough that even at the Jersey Shore winds will be on shore for a bit but it's not like this storm is stalling out for a couple of tidal cycles. Minor tidal flooding IMO. I see 2-4" type of rain with this. All and all nothing to make jest of and it's impactful in its own right. So it has my attention and respect.

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Post by kalleg Sun Dec 17, 2023 1:22 pm

Light rain in New Hope, a bit foggy, not even a breeze in the trees, 52*
Standing by for what's on the way...

And here's what's posted on the NWS for our part of the world--snow showers might come our way???

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A deep closed upper low with strong shortwave energy will move
through the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday night and
will be over central New York and eastern Pennsylvania Tuesday
morning before tracking towards eastern Canada during on
Tuesday. As this low departs, it will drag a strong surface cold
front through the Northeast.

Scattered rain and/or snow showers, depending on how cold it
can get at the surface, will spread over the region Monday night
through Tuesday morning, and then showers will taper off
Tuesday afternoon. Best chances for all snow will be in the
southern Poconos, where an inch or so of snow accumulation is
possibl

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 2:42 pm

Still dont believe that at leadt the winds the nws afvertise for tonight wont be met and heehaw based in sr model rain out puts 2 to 3 imo is on the consevative end. The 3km nam conti ues to show very high smounts even over 5 incheslocally and 60+ gusts. Accuwx and bernie has 50 to 60moh all wsy into nyc. We will see. And no disrespect at all heehaw your amazing on here. In the end u will probably be right but st tells me the morning is go be ugly. Nws even not ruling out tstorms potentislly severe with the wind mixing down. Will it be localized probsbly but widespread 40 to 55 imo is on par


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 17, 2023 2:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 2:43 pm

kalleg wrote:Light rain in New Hope, a bit foggy, not even a breeze in the trees, 52*
Standing by for what's on the way...

And here's what's posted on the NWS for our part of the world--snow showers might come our way???

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A deep closed upper low with strong shortwave energy will move
through the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday night and
will be over central New York and eastern Pennsylvania Tuesday
morning before tracking towards eastern Canada during on
Tuesday. As this low departs, it will drag a strong surface cold
front through the Northeast.

Scattered rain and/or snow showers, depending on how cold it
can get at the surface, will spread over the region Monday night
through Tuesday morning, and then showers will taper off
Tuesday afternoon. Best chances for all snow will be in the
southern Poconos, where an inch or so of snow accumulation is
possibl
yes sr models show this far n and w of nyc. Mainly in PA.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 2:47 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Frank do you think those totals and wind will be worst for coastal areas or inland?

Frank_Wx wrote:Models have upped rain totals in the last 12 hours. Looking more like a widespread 2.5”-3.5” with localized 5” amounts. The areas likely to see 4” or more of rain are CNJ, NNJ and SNY.
Yeah im in the circled area on nws. 5 inches will make for a nightmare commute. One that i may not even attempt. The rivers here just cant handle it. Funny part. They blocking street parking in my area for outdoor movie shoot tonight 8pm to 6am. Glad im not them! Must be planned to be scene in a storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:07 pm

NWS upped WA wind gusts just shy of warning criteria for NYC area and just north into southern westchester and inland CT to 55mph max gusts (58mph is warning criteria, symantics at this pt). I said I expect warning level but it is kinda too late at this pt. Looks like a wild ride if NWS is correct. When will be the most windy period (I know at least after midnight), I do not plan to stay up all night especially if it does not pan out such as many appear to have evidence to back up. But NWS must be seeing something that we aren't. Also still on par for 3+ inches rain for most.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

CTZ005>007-NJZ006-NYZ071>074-181000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.231218T0500Z-231218T1700Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Hudson-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-
336 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph
 expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven
 and Northern Middlesex Counties. In New Jersey, Hudson County.
 In New York, Southern Westchester, New York (Manhattan), Bronx
 and Richmond (Staten Island) Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
 Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
 result.
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:17 pm

Here is my call after looking at latest radar, PWAT Maps. This bad boy is going to overperform
Coastal Flooding will be moderate tomorrow morning at high tide for NJ Coast LI and NYC harbor.
Winds overperform, power outages light up like a Xmas tree. 
Flash Flooding may rival some of the ones we had the last few years.
Storm is overperforming bigly down south, you have a massive fetch of moisture from the Carribean and the thunderstorms n tornados  = latent heat release.  Lastly, moderate  geomagnetic storm will enhance the storm as it has in the past.   

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Nam3km17
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Img_7610
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Hrrr-n11

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:17 pm

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Image_35
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Image_34

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:17 pm

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Image_35
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Image_34

_________________
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:19 pm

Those PWAT values a few absolutely incredible hence the large amounts of rains. That is massive heat release galore and only building.

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Post by dsix85 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:20 pm

Two big claps of thunder in Manorville. Sroc, did you hear it?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:22 pm

amugs wrote:Here is my call after looking at latest radar, PWAT Maps. This bad boy is going to overperform
Coastal Flooding will be moderate tomorrow morning at high tide for NJ Coast LI and NYC harbor.
Winds overperform, power outages light up like a Xmas tree. 
Flash Flooding may rival some of the ones we had the last few years.
Storm is overperforming bigly down south, you have a massive fetch of moisture from the Carribean and the thunderstorms n tornados  = latent heat release.  Lastly, moderate  geomagnetic storm will enhance the storm as it has in the past.   

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Nam3km17
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Img_7610
DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?   - Page 6 Hrrr-n11
If that 3km NAM wind transpires we are all in big trouble, thats close to 70mph IMBY and in 2020 the TS Isiais did not gust that high IMBY, my only hope is that since then there have been fewer and fewer trees in my area (complimernts of numerous storms over the years, kinda sad plus they cut down a lot. I find it hilarious they are setting up for a movie shoot tonight in my neighborhood from 8pm to 6am. So I will be watching for flying cameras too lol. What is the last rain model you posted, thats some serious flooding 6-8+ inches just west of NYC yikes. Not to mention the soft ground will not help with downing trees. Be safe all.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:26 pm

Will be interessted to see at the last 6pm briefing by NWS ups nyc area to warning winds and increases rains based on the above images I think it is possible. As I posted the already upped my area from 40-50 to 45-55. Stayed the same with 3-5 inches rain, but I agree mugs will see areas with significantly more, I think traverl rush hour is no bueno.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:39 pm

dsix85 wrote:Two big claps of thunder in Manorville. Sroc, did you hear it?
Yup a few lightning strikes based on this website, it is accurate and a great resource.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;z=10;y=40.8231;x=-73.0078;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
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