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Banter Thread 9.0

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snowday111
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 28, 2024 6:41 am

phil155 wrote:My fingers are crossed for February to bring something but maybe it is because I have Covid right now and feel sick that I am not my normal upbeat and positive self

Get well fast phil, sorry you got it.

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Post by essexcountypete Sun Jan 28, 2024 1:01 pm

sroc4 wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:Thanks Scott! The graphs don't seem to be the same, but I will take a look at all of the data at the link you posted so I can understand better what the it means and what his conclusions are.

Please don't let my skepticism be confused for a knee-jerk reaction, nor confuse it for bias. I haven't espoused any "alarmist" predictions, nor posted anything alarmist. People can post whatever "contrary" stuff they want. The question is whether it can withstand scrutiny.  

Ryan Maue is indeed a well known meteorologist, and a well known climate change skeptic. He was tapped by Trump to head NOAA, teaming up with David Legates, another meteorologist and climate change skeptic who believes excess carbon dioxide is "good for plants" and thinks global warming is "harmless". This was the WaPo headline when Maue got the job..."White House taps second controversial scientist to steer major U.S. climate change report - NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue joins climate skeptic David Legates."

Maue spent years working at the Cato Institute, and the Center for the Study of Science. They are well-known for their mission to raise uncertainty, to put it mildly, about climate science. Before that Maue worked at WeatherBell with Joe Bastardi, another well-known climate skeptic. Bastardi worked with Joe D’Aleo, founder of ICECAP, another organization that promotes climate change skepticism. Maue is certainly not that outspoken compared to some of these guys, he's more a "lukewarmer" who doesn't deny a human-induced effect on climate, but it's important to understand his background and where he's spent his career.

Hey, I'm a big fan of skepticism, and I personally play my own devil's advocate on this topic and most topics in life, so I try to remain open to any new information. I'm also a big fan of transparency, so sourcing and background matter greatly to me, just as much as accurate data, so I appreciate the background that you sent. I will take a look.


Fair enough.  Problem I have though is basically everything you just said in this post is merely regurgitating talking points.  There literally is no substance to any of it.  Not by any fault of your own, but if you google his name the first 50 hits are from left wing media outlets claiming hes a "climate denier", climate skeptic, "Trump Appointee".  There is zero context to this stuff.  They use key words to invoke an emotional response.  If you are one who suffers from Trump derangement syndrome then the mere association with anything Trump immediately has you convinced this guy is wrong and a cook.  If you fully believe man made global warming is 100% the cause to the warming planet then the words "climate denier" will immediately invoke a similar emotion and your mind will have been made up for you already.  The words they use is no coincidence.  Google is owned by one of the richest and most powerful men on the planet in Bill Gates and an algorithm that suppresses stories supporting alternative views is 100% a thing. The suppression of the discussion of natural immunity and hunter bidens lap top a couple of years ago are two perfect examples of how this was done.

When you actually start to dive into the individual articles on Ryan Maue after a google search basically what you find is that they are all like the movie Inception.  There is layer upon layer of authors telling you that there is this proof and that but what proof is their really?  For instance:

In this article: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/533913-officials-ousted-from-white-house-after-papers-casting-doubt-on/

you get this excerpt:  

And a paper casting doubt on whether human-caused climate change was conclusively impacting hurricane activity in the Atlantic was attributed to Maue. There has been research finding that climate change is making hurricanes more intense.

One paper takes on other topics like aiming to link climate change to sun cycles, though according to NASA, recent warming is too great to be caused by the sun.



The underlined words are links that takes you to the next article that allegedly is the proof/citation that the author of The Hill article is using that shows climate change is making hurricanes more intense.  When you click on that it takes you here:  https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

As you start reading through this one you realize that this author, like the author of The Hill article is also nothing to do with climate research or a meteorologist directly; but rather just another journalist investigating.  As you read on in this one you find statements like this:

Generally speaking, the warmer the water temperatures, the more heat energy is available and the higher the potential for tropical cyclones to develop. So it’s reasonable to assume that as humans continue to release planet-warming greenhouse gases, the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity increases.

By and large, that is true, but in the real world it’s a little more complicated than that. The conventional wisdom is that storm intensity will increase but storm frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged.


When asked about the conflicting research findings on cyclone frequency, Emanuel said by email: “My own view is that we really do not know at this point whether the overall global frequency of [tropical cyclones] will increase, decrease, or stay the same. It is an area of active research.

Regarding Intensity of the hurricanes you find this:

In a 2015 paper using future model simulations, Knutson found an “increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates, and the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms.” Specifically, the simulations calculated a 28% increase in category 4 and 5 storms globally, with a 335% increase in the northeast Pacific and a 42% increase in the North Atlantic.

In Bhatia’s 2018 study, the intensity gains are even more alarming. The HiFLOR simulations project the number of major cyclones (category 3, 4, and 5) to increase by 20% globally and 29% in the Atlantic by 2081-2100. But HiFLOR suggests a significant increase in major systems even sooner.


So this author is using simulations by climate models to sound the alarm.  But if this board has taught us anything is that ANY LONG RANGE MODEL is subject to MAJOR flaws the longer out in time you try to go.  If you click on the link for one of the study's cited in this article it takes you here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0

In part of the conclusions by the authors you get this statement:

An important finding is that the proportion of intense hurricanes appears to initially increase in response to warming oceans, but then approach a saturation level after which no further increases occur. There is tentative evidence that the saturation level will differ across the tropical cyclone basins and that the global proportion of Cat 4–5 hurricanes may already be near it’s saturation level of ~40–50 %. This has considerable societal implications that are being examined in a companion study.



So what this author is saying is that based on model simulations thgat even if the global temps increase by 5* there is an upper limit as to how much the number of strong hurricanes will form and that we may have already reached that upper limit.  


So I hope you can see that its nothing more than smoke and mirrors.  If you have actually taken the time to read this far in my post and if you actually attempted to read and understand the actual research being cited is as flawed as any other research.  There should at least be a little skepticism in all of us to any narrative that involves science that is settled.  Shit it may well be that anthropogenic global warming is all she wrote.  But if it is, why suppress alternating ideas?  Seriously.  In an open and free society all ideas should be listened to and presented and let the best argument win.  Let these alternate ideas be out there on full display for critique by the experts.  When there is deliberate censorship, and suppression of ideas that go against a narrative, that my friends should warrant your ears to perk up and ask why?  Why cant I decide for myself?   Why cant the mainstream media present ALL arguments and let you and me read through the information and supporting documents regarding the suns influence on the climate, or the underwater seismic and volcanic activity and its role in warming of the oceans and decide for myself which argument sounds more reasonable?  Is it because Im too stupid?  I cant possibly understand these things myself so I need a government or a handful of powerful elites with 98% of the worlds wealth tell me what to believe.  That's essentially it in a nut shell.  

With that I'm done.  I know its long but it frustrates me to see how easy it is for very smart people to be so easily influenced by their own biases.  I am not innocent in this.  I have my bias's, but I recognize I have them and do everything I can to stay as open minded as possible.  This has allowed me to let in some of this other information and think about it without someone else telling me what to think and I can see that there are least questions regarding climate that are unanswered and need more research.  The science is NEVER settled.  Anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to push a narrative.    


Has that "you're too smart not to believe what I believe" thing actually worked for you before? I must say, that level of arrogance is truly impressive, but don't expect it to help convince people that what you have to say is valid or true. It's ironic that you call my entirely factual comment emotional, considering your rather passionate reply. Clearly you don't like what I wrote, but all the words are my own and everything I said is accurate. Invoking "the media", "natural immunity", and Hunter Biden is distraction, but it does feed nicely into the standard conspiracy noise that allows one to ignore real facts en masse as one pleases.

I read your post and I looked at the links. The Hill piece, yeah it's a news story, written by a journalist, and the fact that the author has "nothing to do with climate research" is meaningless. There's nothing inaccurate in it at all.

The Yale Connection piece that the Hill author cites, that you also claim has "nothing to do with climate research or a meteorologist directly; but rather just another journalist investigating" was actually written by a real life meteorologist, none other that our own Jeff Berardelli. It's actually a great but of writing. He cites multiple sources and multiple studies, and has 40 different citations to climate research, all linked clearly for easy review. You choose to note the two studies using simulations, and oddly ignore all his other valid citations, and you seem to think that somehow debunks what Berardelli is saying. It doesn't. The idea that models or simulations are not valid and useful tools for him to cite, despite the fact that we use them everyday to help us predict the weather, more accurately and further into the future than ever before, is ridiculous. Models have limitations, and the study authors, as you posted, admitted to their potential limits, but you use that as an excuse to disclaim the data and claim their conclusions are invalid. You have no basis to make that claim, and you've debunked nothing.

You picked a "mainstream media" news story that you thought you could debunk, attacked it's source as "smoke and mirrors", and your basis for doing so is "model suck". That's not skepticism, that's your biases blinding you.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 28, 2024 4:55 pm

They want our meat protein bases diets gone. Cull the Cattle, Chicken, Hog industries for the climate. Framing is detrimental to the planet is what has been said by Gates, Schwab, Kerry, Greta and the green warrior likes.

 Now they are after your coffee. What will DnD and Starbucks do? And all their patrons? What will you do....comply? I don't drink coffee, never have and never will, don't like the taste but for those billions who do like my wife I do not believe she will. Please don't say this is a suggestion etc, they mean what they say and are the elitists of the world who think and believe you and I are peasants, minions to their ideological methods. They tell us exactly what they are going to do.


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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 28, 2024 4:59 pm

Coffee plants are blighted and in time may not make it. Olive trees the same. Cavendish bananas the same
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 28, 2024 5:21 pm

dkodgis wrote:Coffee plants are blighted and in time may not make it. Olive trees the same. Cavendish bananas the same

Sound like the plot to Interstellar, one of my top ten movies of all time, but hoping against seeing it play out in real time.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 29, 2024 8:22 am

Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Screen25
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:22 am

[quote="weatherwatchermom"]Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Screen25[/quote

So true!
Back in the day I would walk around my Mahwah neighborhood in a snowstorm to experience that quiet.To paraphrase an old Twilight Zone episode a snowstorm "makes one slow down his pace to a walk and live one's life in full measure".
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:31 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Screen25

Absolutely, it is pure bliss of peace and tranquility.

This is very interesting:

Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 GE_gWZtXUAATHQV?format=jpg&name=medium
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989423004262

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:38 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Screen25

My Avatar is 100% based off this exact thing.  I absolutely love taking a walk in the neighborhood while there is 6-12" on the ground and its still mod to heavy snowing.  Everyone is off the roads, and settled in.  The sound of the flakes falling through the trees, and the smell of it.  There is a very distinct smell during a snow storm too.  The combination of the sights, the sounds, and the olfactory senses all in concert during a good ole fashion snow storm bring me true inner peace.

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WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:55 am

amugs wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Screen25

Absolutely, it is pure bliss of peace and tranquility.

This is very interesting:

Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 GE_gWZtXUAATHQV?format=jpg&name=medium
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989423004262

Very interesting Mugs!
One small area I went to for years back in the day to trout fish the Beaverkill River in Roscoe NY had been stripped bare of trees over 100 years ago for acid factories to make the product from tree bark to tan hides.I have a book with pictures showing the bare mountainsides.The last acid factory closed in Horton NY in 1950 and now those mountains are back to their full glory of full tree coverage.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:17 am

amugs wrote:They want our meat protein bases diets gone. Cull the Cattle, Chicken, Hog industries for the climate. Framing is detrimental to the planet is what has been said by Gates, Schwab, Kerry, Greta and the green warrior likes.

 Now they are after your coffee. What will DnD and Starbucks do? And all their patrons? What will you do....comply? I don't drink coffee, never have and never will, don't like the taste but for those billions who do like my wife I do not believe she will. Please don't say this is a suggestion etc, they mean what they say and are the elitists of the world who think and believe you and I are peasants, minions to their ideological methods. They tell us exactly what they are going to do.


My question for anyone who deals in these conspiracy posts is - Are you looking to be educated and informed, or are you just seeking a daily dose of outrage?

Dennis Prager made this selective quote his focus of faux outrage a few days ago, so it's not surprising the conspiracy minions lips are flapping, using the same cherry picked quote. Go look around and you'll find all the conspiracy dealers have the same :41 quote, captioned with the same lie that Prager stated, "He [Heller] came out against coffee drinking."

To the incurious who lap up the conspiracy noise to keep their fist shaking outrage maintained at a high level, you will stop here, and repeat the claim far and wide "Now they are coming for your coffee!!!"

However, if you're truly curious and want some real background you would have to listen beyond the :41 cherry picked quote, and then you'd realize the conversation is not about stopping people from drinking coffee (no one is saying that, because that's stupid), but finding better ways of growing, fertilizing, harvesting and delivering coffee to reduce the energy used and emissions produced. The point is that coffee has a footprint, just like anything we consume, and reducing that footprint with a few basic steps can cut the energy and emissions by more than half. Most of us would agree that's a good thing.

When you take a moment to dig in they are talking about how to improve production of coffee, reduce deforestation, reduce the effect of diseases, droughts, etc., while reducing the environmental impact. Crazy right?

Here's the same guy talking about the same topic, and you'll notice no one is suggesting we should stop drinking coffee...
Davos 2024: what your cup of coffee can teach you about the economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIk_ti-16zM

I'm not here to defend the "global elites", and we can debate the pros and cons of this all day long, but we should all avoid being sucked up in the outrage machine and seek context for the sound bites that hit our inboxes everyday so we don't perpetuate misinformation, which is exactly what this is.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:22 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Screen25

I think there's something about how snow falls that's also soothing. It's slower than rain, so it almost feels like slow motion when you watch it. One of our recent storms had what seemed "baby's breath" flakes that were super fluffy, and they were falling so slowly, it made it seem like the world was moving at half speed.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:08 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
amugs wrote:They want our meat protein bases diets gone. Cull the Cattle, Chicken, Hog industries for the climate. Framing is detrimental to the planet is what has been said by Gates, Schwab, Kerry, Greta and the green warrior likes.

 Now they are after your coffee. What will DnD and Starbucks do? And all their patrons? What will you do....comply? I don't drink coffee, never have and never will, don't like the taste but for those billions who do like my wife I do not believe she will. Please don't say this is a suggestion etc, they mean what they say and are the elitists of the world who think and believe you and I are peasants, minions to their ideological methods. They tell us exactly what they are going to do.


My question for anyone who deals in these conspiracy posts is - Are you looking to be educated and informed, or are you just seeking a daily dose of outrage?

Dennis Prager made this selective quote his focus of faux outrage a few days ago, so it's not surprising the conspiracy minions lips are flapping, using the same cherry picked quote. Go look around and you'll find all the conspiracy dealers have the same :41 quote, captioned with the same lie that Prager stated, "He [Heller] came out against coffee drinking."

To the incurious who lap up the conspiracy noise to keep their fist shaking outrage maintained at a high level, you will stop here, and repeat the claim far and wide "Now they are coming for your coffee!!!"

However, if you're truly curious and want some real background you would have to listen beyond the :41 cherry picked quote, and then you'd realize the conversation is not about stopping people from drinking coffee (no one is saying that, because that's stupid), but finding better ways of growing, fertilizing, harvesting and delivering coffee to reduce the energy used and emissions produced. The point is that coffee has a footprint, just like anything we consume, and reducing that footprint with a few basic steps can cut the energy and emissions by more than half. Most of us would agree that's a good thing.

When you take a moment to dig in they are talking about how to improve production of coffee, reduce deforestation, reduce the effect of diseases, droughts, etc., while reducing the environmental impact. Crazy right?

Here's the same guy talking about the same topic, and you'll notice no one is suggesting we should stop drinking coffee...
Davos 2024: what your cup of coffee can teach you about the economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIk_ti-16zM

I'm not here to defend the "global elites", and we can debate the pros and cons of this all day long, but we should all avoid being sucked up in the outrage machine and seek context for the sound bites that hit our inboxes everyday so we don't perpetuate misinformation, which is exactly what this is.

Can't wait to see how they will implement this new plan for growing coffee in these Central and South American countries? Are these elitists going over there to force the issue?
Where's the plan for doing that,LOL.Got my popcorn and a balcony seat.
Meanwhile, wonder how many cups of coffee would produce this:

https://www.greenpeace.org/international/ce-delft_co2-emissions-from-private-flights-to-the-world-economic-forum/
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:33 am

Well, Anchorage just reported its 2nd back to back seasons in recorded history with 100 + inches of snow. The last time was in the 1950’s. Looks like the snow lovers up there are dancing and happy!
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:41 am

WeatherBob wrote:Well, Anchorage just reported its 2nd back to back seasons in recorded history with 100 + inches of snow.  The last time was in the 1950’s.  Looks like the snow lovers up there are dancing and happy!

Juneau has also been having a banner year, and they are further south and on the coast!

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:44 am

WeatherBob wrote:Well, Anchorage just reported its 2nd back to back seasons in recorded history with 100 + inches of snow.  The last time was in the 1950’s.  Looks like the snow lovers up there are dancing and happy!

Glad to see this horrible pattern we are in is benefitting snow lovers up there.
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Post by WeatherBob Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:00 am

Does anyone remember when we saw the sun last?
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:12 am

WeatherBob wrote:Does anyone remember when we saw the sun last?

Lol. I was just thinking this last night as I was driving home under a thick cloud cover. Again. It seems like it's just been cloudy for a week.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:09 am

billg315 wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Does anyone remember when we saw the sun last?

Lol. I was just thinking this last night as I was driving home under a thick cloud cover. Again. It seems like it's just been cloudy for a week.

Feel bad on that for people who suffer from SAD.Dreary week.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:33 am

Sat the sun graces us
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:08 am

WeatherBob wrote:Does anyone remember when we saw the sun last?
Like 10 days ago..i.have been rating the levels of grey..🤢 all twinkle lights-right now red for valentines day throughout spots in the house..have been on 24/7 these days to keep those winter blues away. As well as my northern lights projector ..lol.Janis Huff showed the calendar of Jan and we only had 3 full sunny days 🙄🙄Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 5 Img_2116
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:26 am

Woke up this morning and saw this big yellow thing popping up above the horizon to the east....??


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:31 am

sroc4 wrote:Woke up this morning and saw this big yellow thing popping up above the horizon to the east....??

😂🤣
You are right grey to the west but brighter..I got up and looked out the front

Looks like we might get some 🌞🌞🌞 today!
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:42 am

When you get to my point in life, age 73, you will take ANY morning as long as you wake up,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJqjlFGZxtE

Thank you,Lord for the gift of another day!!
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Post by kalleg Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:50 am

docstox12 wrote:When you get to my point in life, age 73, you will take ANY morning as long as you wake up,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJqjlFGZxtE

Thank you,Lord for the gift of another day!!

And thank you for a beautiful song to start the day--couldn't ask for anything better, a grand reminder from my college days!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:46 am

Another mostly cloudy day.

I've never looked more pale in my life.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:52 am

kalleg wrote:
docstox12 wrote:When you get to my point in life, age 73, you will take ANY morning as long as you wake up,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJqjlFGZxtE

Thank you,Lord for the gift of another day!!

And thank you for a beautiful song to start the day--couldn't ask for anything better, a grand reminder from my college days!

Your very welcome.You were in college in 1968?
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