February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Say what you want about the verbatim outputs of these models today, but all of them have trended south and colder. There has been no trend northward. That says something.

Just have to see how this n/s piece interacts. If it comes faster and further south, then this could be a 980mb bomb right off AC. All bets would be off if that is where this going. For now confidence is going up a bit in something more meaningful for the I95 and coastal plain.

amugs wrote:snowfall per hour rates - ready oneself when looking at this - gonna thump like thumper!!

4AM RGEM



5AM


READY??



KABOOOOM! 6-7AM



8-9AM


9-10AM
GTHO 4" would surpass the Great Blizzard of 83!!



10-11AM

Umm, wow....I could imagine t-snow could be possible?

Very impressive 18Z GEFS h5 vorticity. It's showing closed off ULL on a mean. Negative tilt indicative of more intense winter storms.

Well I'm not sure we could have gotten much better out of the model trends than we did so far today. I'm not going to push my luck. lol. I'm going to tune out and just settle in for the Super Bowl. I'll check in later to make sure nothing has gone awry.
Huge day of model runs late tonight and tomorrow also.

The trends between 12z and 18z today have been overwhelmingly positive for significant snowfall making its way south across EPA, NNJ and NYC.

The underdogs (colder solution) fell behind in the 1st quarter but made a dramatic comeback in the 2nd quarter against the favorites (warmer solution). Tonight at 00z we enter the 3rd quarter and hope the underdogs carry the momentum forward. The game will be decided by 4th quarter, or 12z, tomorrow.

aiannone wrote:

Really nice illustration. Sums it up pretty well. The biggest revelation is the northern s/w energy dropping into earlier for a phase/partial phase to bring the trough negatively tilted.

Well Upton finally showing a bit of interest for the coast, lets see if WSW will eventually be issued at very least WWA, hopefully.

jmanley32 wrote:Well Upton finally showing a bit of interest for the coast, lets see if WSW will eventually be issued at very least WWA, hopefully.

I was messaging with Bill Goodman, who works at Upton. He worked the day shift today and said they are in no rush to issue any additional warnings or watches. The only reason they updated the northern watches to warnings was because the Boston office was doing their updates today. He doesn't trust the models as far as he can throw them since this winter has been so difficult. We will see what tomorrow brings.

Here is Mount Holly's update, they aren't biting on the 18z either.

Dunnzoo wrote:Here is Mount Holly's update, they aren't biting on the 18z either.

Man that 6-8 and 8-12 are within about 25 miles or less north of me, so close. Hoping tonights models and tomorrows hold with the south solution, 4-6 is still pretty good but as frank had said it won't be 10:1, especially down here. My daughter is so funny she has no interest in football but is a total Swifty so watching purely because of Taylors boyfriend and hoping they show a camera shot of her (I don't get it but hey shes 10 what can I say) lol.

The trend to shift the surface low back to the south is attributed to the TPV press that happens as a function of a stout ridge over the Hudson Bay. Here’s the 18z GFS comparison of today and yesterday valid for Tuesday morning. Night and day difference with TPV placement and trough axis (more negatively tilted in todays run)

Today 18z GFS





Yesterday 18z GFS

The 00z models will be my Super Bowl tonight

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z models will be my Super Bowl tonight

Frank what time does it run ?

18Z Euro. Look at the cyclonic curvature of the ULL. This is cold conveyor belt of snow signature right to the coast. You have a closed off ULL cut off from the flow. This thing could stall. This is compliments of the injection of n/s energy. I don't think this is model incorrectness, but most likely better data fidelity.

Also Euro has ~ 1 QPF with such a negative tilt and deepening might be underdone.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z models will be my Super Bowl tonight

This is one heck of a storm brewing. Snow or not it's going to be potent.

JMAN need a 20 mile Shift SE by 850 and 700.mb LP.

EPS says HOLD tour hats!!!

This is major, warm front shunted south with massive latent heat convection to tue N. Bodes well for us.

18Z EPS Closed off ULL as storm is hitting the coast. wow. wow. wow. wow.

I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous?? I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest? An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east? I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

IMO the phase of the n/s energy is the key here. It makes sense that it's showing up like this with the EPO/PNA having a lot of ridging forcing n/s to slip south. If it works out I expect even philly would get tagged with several inches. But if that n/s isn't the real deal this will fail.

amugs wrote:JMAN need a 20 mile Shift SE by 850 and 700.mb LP.

Think we can get there mugs? EPS says so, wow and thats the blend, id like to see the extreme members lol. I am still doubting this but it is looking better and better than it was days ago and we are basically within a little over 24 hrs.

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

You are suffering from the last 2 winters, PTSD brother. Don't be so down kid let it ride.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:JMAN need a 20 mile Shift SE by 850 and 700.mb LP.

Think we can get there mugs? EPS says so, wow and thats the blend, id like to see the extreme members lol. I am still doubting this but it is looking better and better than it was days ago and we are basically within a little over 24 hrs.

Only if 0Z shows it. EPS  looks phenomenal,  time will tell.