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February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:40 pm

3K NAM is MUCH Colder and has more confluence the N with a Northern Vort that has just swung down.
Snow map is drool worthy for the region

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707858000-73wjfYsgY64

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:40 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can we trust the nam model? Especially with the euro and gfs being different? Is the nam usually correct or incorrect?

I'd say a couple things. One: I don't think there is a dominant model anymore that is more correct than the others. They all seem to have their good moments and bad moments. I've alternatively in any give storm recently heard people say the Euro, GFS, and NAM are rubish. So have to just really be careful about buying into any of them verbatim and can't really throw any model out or bank entirely on any model. Two: The GFS and Euro both trended south/colder on their last runs (12z) so they're not as far out of step with the NAM as you might think. Although clearly this particular NAM run is a big shift so I'd want to see more agreement from other models in the next couple runs before buying in completely.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:43 pm

billg315 wrote:18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Img_2942
Thats too far south lol, lets hope. Of course I am sure LI peeps won't complain, not bad here either but that cut out for NE NJ and westchester is kinda strange. I know not taking it verbatim, it is the nam afterall.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:45 pm

aiannone wrote:Still snowing:
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Sn10_a87
Well if that happened verbatim would have to release the monster! Thats the only model showing like that so far I believe. SR models are always fun but stressful too.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:47 pm

billg315 wrote:18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Img_2942
Hey what’s that snow hole doing over my house? Laughing
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:47 pm

Sign me up for either the 18zNAM or the HRRR. LOL. I would take either IMBY.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:48 pm

billg315 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can we trust the nam model? Especially with the euro and gfs being different? Is the nam usually correct or incorrect?

I'd say a couple things. One: I don't think there is a dominant model anymore that is more correct than the others. They all seem to have their good moments and bad moments. I've alternatively in any give storm recently heard people say the Euro, GFS, and NAM are rubish. So have to just really be careful about buying into any of them verbatim and can't really throw any model out or bank entirely on any model. Two: The GFS and Euro both trended south/colder on their last runs (12z) so they're not as far out of step with the NAM as you might think. Although clearly this particular NAM run is a big shift so I'd want to see more agreement from other models in the next couple runs before buying in completely.

Well said. The n/s is busy. There is an EPO and PNA acting as slide for n/s energy. There is a stout TPV lobe above the area coupled with HL blocking. If this thing produces it's not a fluke as the pieces are there, but I'm NOT confident this is an imminent snow threat for the I95 and coastal plain yet. yet...

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:48 pm

HREF AT 7AM Tuesday morning and it says holy molly - 1-3" per hour rates for NNJ, NEPA, HV, LHV

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 GGEqsrFXsAECmWy?format=jpg&name=900x900


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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:50 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
billg315 wrote:18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Img_2942
Hey what’s that snow hole doing over my house? Laughing

Haha! Like I said above. Don't worry about the snow totals verbatim on this run. It's more the trend in the dynamics: south, colder, stronger. It's also possible this is an over-correction south and it slides a bit back north in future runs.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:51 pm

0Z suite tonight should be telling.

Dr Ryan Maue posted this yesterday and he got lots of blow back......maybe not.


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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:52 pm

Also this SOI continues it consistency indicative of a very active subtropical jet. This storm is not a fluke.



February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Soi19

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:52 pm

Also this SOI continues it consistency indicative of a very active subtropical jet. This storm is not a fluke.



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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:53 pm

Winter storm warning for 8-12 inches here 45 miles north of NYC. similar to January 7-8 event here if it verifies. Hope the majority cash in this time.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:55 pm

amugs wrote:0Z suite tonight should be telling.

Dr Ryan Maue posted this yesterday and he got lots of blow back......maybe not.

Hope he is right and that we can get in the 12-18, though 6-12 would be fine too. 3-6 would me meh but still better than nothing, it's likely go come down to a nowcast.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:19 pm

If you do get accumulating snow from this it may hang on as snow cover for awhile. Colder air behind this storm. My current 10 day forecast has Lows in the low to mid 20s each day through the start of next week with Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Probably even colder than that for folks in NWNJ and the Hudson Valley.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Also this SOI continues it consistency indicative of a very active subtropical jet. This storm is not a fluke.



February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Soi19

Record breaking - these minus numbers are gonna "cattle prod" the atmosphere to bigly levels in the PAC ....hopefully!!

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:26 pm

snowfall per hour rates - ready oneself when looking at this - gonna thump like thumper!!

4AM RGEM

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707814800-aOHMLBDe2L4

5AM
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707818400-CcY8EScV2og

READY??

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707822000-hsT7lGryM7Q

KABOOOOM! 6-7AM
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707825600-uPiFcE9fGO4


8-9AM
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707829200-YGCUoArwrZw

9-10AM
GTHO 4" would surpass the Great Blizzard of 83!!

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707832800-Oyg729rSJY4

10-11AM
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 1707836400-EJ92Z9rIqyI


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Post by frank 638 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:30 pm

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 Img_5312

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:32 pm

Mugs, if those per hour rates are accurate, you would have whiteout like conditions across much of NNJ and the NYC metro from about 6 am to 11 am Tuesday. There will be some wind with this as well which would add to that. That would be something to see.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:42 pm

Interesting thing with this, you could get several hours of rain and rain/snow mix leading into Tuesday morning, but once it changes over to snow Tuesday morning, if you get intense rates before it starts to pull away, you could still end up with 6" of snow even if you only got about 3 or 4 hours of heavy snow from the storm.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:53 pm

18z GFS now running. Cold Press to the north looks more stout on this model run also. I'm guessing this run will be colder, further south as well.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:54 pm

H5 track on 18z GFS does indeed appear to be south from last run.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:56 pm

This n/s piece is strong and further south. It's pushing the storm east and strengthening. That's the biggest thing I see now with guidance.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 5 18zgfs14

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:57 pm

850s start to crash around daybreak and much of NJ below 0* on the 850s by midmorning. Surface temps at or just above freezing in Central/North Jersey, NYC metro in the AM, which we can work with if the rates are heavy.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 5:00 pm

18z GFS not as far south as the NAM -- which frankly may be too far south -- but it has come south enough to give much of Central and Northern NJ and NYC metro and LI a decent snow event of several inches.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 11, 2024 5:02 pm

Say what you want about the verbatim outputs of these models today, but all of them have trended south and colder. There has been no trend northward. That says something.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 11, 2024 5:05 pm

Just have to see how this n/s piece interacts. If it comes faster and further south, then this could be a 980mb bomb right off AC. All bets would be off if that is where this going. For now confidence is going up a bit in something more meaningful for the I95 and coastal plain.

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