February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

3K NAM is MUCH Colder and has more confluence the N with a Northern Vort that has just swung down.
Snow map is drool worthy for the region

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can we trust the nam model? Especially with the euro and gfs being different? Is the nam usually correct or incorrect?

I'd say a couple things. One: I don't think there is a dominant model anymore that is more correct than the others. They all seem to have their good moments and bad moments. I've alternatively in any give storm recently heard people say the Euro, GFS, and NAM are rubish. So have to just really be careful about buying into any of them verbatim and can't really throw any model out or bank entirely on any model. Two: The GFS and Euro both trended south/colder on their last runs (12z) so they're not as far out of step with the NAM as you might think. Although clearly this particular NAM run is a big shift so I'd want to see more agreement from other models in the next couple runs before buying in completely.

billg315 wrote:18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:

Thats too far south lol, lets hope. Of course I am sure LI peeps won't complain, not bad here either but that cut out for NE NJ and westchester is kinda strange. I know not taking it verbatim, it is the nam afterall.

aiannone wrote:Still snowing:

Well if that happened verbatim would have to release the monster! Thats the only model showing like that so far I believe. SR models are always fun but stressful too.

billg315 wrote:18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:

Hey what’s that snow hole doing over my house?

Sign me up for either the 18zNAM or the HRRR. LOL. I would take either IMBY.

billg315 wrote:

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can we trust the nam model? Especially with the euro and gfs being different? Is the nam usually correct or incorrect?

I'd say a couple things. One: I don't think there is a dominant model anymore that is more correct than the others. They all seem to have their good moments and bad moments. I've alternatively in any give storm recently heard people say the Euro, GFS, and NAM are rubish. So have to just really be careful about buying into any of them verbatim and can't really throw any model out or bank entirely on any model. Two: The GFS and Euro both trended south/colder on their last runs (12z) so they're not as far out of step with the NAM as you might think. Although clearly this particular NAM run is a big shift so I'd want to see more agreement from other models in the next couple runs before buying in completely.

Well said. The n/s is busy. There is an EPO and PNA acting as slide for n/s energy. There is a stout TPV lobe above the area coupled with HL blocking. If this thing produces it's not a fluke as the pieces are there, but I'm NOT confident this is an imminent snow threat for the I95 and coastal plain yet. yet...

HREF AT 7AM Tuesday morning and it says holy molly - 1-3" per hour rates for NNJ, NEPA, HV, LHV

nutleyblizzard wrote:

billg315 wrote:18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:

Hey what’s that snow hole doing over my house?

Haha! Like I said above. Don't worry about the snow totals verbatim on this run. It's more the trend in the dynamics: south, colder, stronger. It's also possible this is an over-correction south and it slides a bit back north in future runs.

0Z suite tonight should be telling.

Dr Ryan Maue posted this yesterday and he got lots of blow back......maybe not.

A massive climate-fueled "bomb cyclone " will explosively develop off Northeast coast into Tuesday.

Up to 2-feet of snowfall away from the coast. NYC on the razor's edge between crippling [12"-18"] to conservational [3"-6"] snowfall.

Boston 15-18" w/blizzard conditions pic.twitter.com/W8fKoHXbGr

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) February 10, 2024

Also this SOI continues it consistency indicative of a very active subtropical jet. This storm is not a fluke.

Also this SOI continues it consistency indicative of a very active subtropical jet. This storm is not a fluke.

Winter storm warning for 8-12 inches here 45 miles north of NYC. similar to January 7-8 event here if it verifies. Hope the majority cash in this time.

amugs wrote:0Z suite tonight should be telling.

Dr Ryan Maue posted this yesterday and he got lots of blow back......maybe not.

A massive climate-fueled "bomb cyclone " will explosively develop off Northeast coast into Tuesday.

Up to 2-feet of snowfall away from the coast. NYC on the razor's edge between crippling [12"-18"] to conservational [3"-6"] snowfall.

Boston 15-18" w/blizzard conditions pic.twitter.com/W8fKoHXbGr

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) February 10, 2024

Hope he is right and that we can get in the 12-18, though 6-12 would be fine too. 3-6 would me meh but still better than nothing, it's likely go come down to a nowcast.

If you do get accumulating snow from this it may hang on as snow cover for awhile. Colder air behind this storm. My current 10 day forecast has Lows in the low to mid 20s each day through the start of next week with Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Probably even colder than that for folks in NWNJ and the Hudson Valley.

heehaw453 wrote:Also this SOI continues it consistency indicative of a very active subtropical jet. This storm is not a fluke.

Record breaking - these minus numbers are gonna "cattle prod" the atmosphere to bigly levels in the PAC ....hopefully!!

snowfall per hour rates - ready oneself when looking at this - gonna thump like thumper!!

4AM RGEM



5AM


READY??



KABOOOOM! 6-7AM



8-9AM


9-10AM
GTHO 4" would surpass the Great Blizzard of 83!!



10-11AM

Mugs, if those per hour rates are accurate, you would have whiteout like conditions across much of NNJ and the NYC metro from about 6 am to 11 am Tuesday. There will be some wind with this as well which would add to that. That would be something to see.

Interesting thing with this, you could get several hours of rain and rain/snow mix leading into Tuesday morning, but once it changes over to snow Tuesday morning, if you get intense rates before it starts to pull away, you could still end up with 6" of snow even if you only got about 3 or 4 hours of heavy snow from the storm.

18z GFS now running. Cold Press to the north looks more stout on this model run also. I'm guessing this run will be colder, further south as well.

H5 track on 18z GFS does indeed appear to be south from last run.

This n/s piece is strong and further south. It's pushing the storm east and strengthening. That's the biggest thing I see now with guidance.

850s start to crash around daybreak and much of NJ below 0* on the 850s by midmorning. Surface temps at or just above freezing in Central/North Jersey, NYC metro in the AM, which we can work with if the rates are heavy.

18z GFS not as far south as the NAM -- which frankly may be too far south -- but it has come south enough to give much of Central and Northern NJ and NYC metro and LI a decent snow event of several inches.

Say what you want about the verbatim outputs of these models today, but all of them have trended south and colder. There has been no trend northward. That says something.

Just have to see how this n/s piece interacts. If it comes faster and further south, then this could be a 980mb bomb right off AC. All bets would be off if that is where this going. For now confidence is going up a bit in something more meaningful for the I95 and coastal plain.