February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

This n/s wild card has sucked me back in.

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:There is clearly a tick south with all of the 12z runs. GEFS as well.  Will be interesting to see if overnight we cont to tick south vs windshield wiper back north. Yeah. With the depth of cold to our north a colder soln wouldn’t surprise me. But with trends this winter neither would the warmer soln.

Agree 100%. I see a CCB feature developing on this. There's evidence of an h5 close off too before it gets to the coast. That consolidation would further support a colder scenario.  Going to be close. Expectations in check.

know its impossible to know where ccb sets up but does it have any chsnce to be nj to nyc and ne?

heehaw453 wrote:This n/s wild card has sucked me back in.  

i can see that u were stead fast on it not work out for coastal areas like my area now if nam is right ill see a wsw if i can get a high end wwa ill b okay with it. Honestly its pretty to watch but getting over 6 is when the real shoveling and street parking sucks. I must be getting old to be talking myself down from a big snowstorm lol

12z Euro rolling. Looks like this might be a positive trender as well - also a tick south? Let’s see.

12z Euro is a positive trend also. Not a big difference but noticeable improvement on southern cutoff location for measurable snow. I’ll take it. Especially since it is now joining positive trends on the other 12z models.

Quite a jump south in the 12z suite. Euro is most notable

12Z Euro has this n/s piece even more pronounced (1st pic).
How quickly does this n/s piece move east? It will intensify the storm rapidly and cool the mid-levels. Note the progression of the 850's (second pic) is more toward Mason Dixon Line. Would love to see it south of there. 45 hours folks nothing is set in stone.

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This n/s wild card has sucked me back in.  

i can see that u were stead fast on it not work out for coastal areas like my area now if nam is right ill see a wsw if i can get a high end wwa ill b okay with it. Honestly its pretty to watch but getting over 6 is when the real shoveling and street parking sucks. I must be getting old to be talking myself down from a big snowstorm lol

If it bombs and stays far enough south your area will be 4-6" with possibly more.

Nice bump south.

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

MattyICE wrote:NE NJ certainly not likely to be in any more than an advisory unless there are shifts.

12zNam looks great for northern half of NJ. Widespread warning criteria snows.

what do you think are the chances southern westchester, which is due east across the hudson from NE NJ is able to get a warning level snow? Rn like zoo said not even a hwo. Shes prolly right that nws isnt sure but its odd that there isnt even a hwo suggesting snow is even a possibility. Verbatim that nsm run gives me 6 to 8 but is there any confidence on that at all. Hate these razor shap cut off storms. Os it possible it slips further south?

Per Bernie Rayno a few minutes ago...

"One consistent theme I have seem by looking at the soundings is how tricky this from southern RI/ CT to the northern suburbs of NYC. temps from 850 mb to near the surface is right along the freezing line into Tue am resulting in mixing. North of there, cold enough for just snow."

All the models have the n/s piece. Here the Ukie at h3 is clearly the most aggressive with it and hence it's furthest SE with the snow.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Nice bump south.

That’s what I was hoping for. Let’s see what happens overnight now! We want a smooth handoff to the short range now!

MattyICE wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Nice bump south.

That’s what I was hoping for. Let’s see what happens overnight now!  We want a smooth handoff to the short range now!

I wouldn’t mind another bump south like that for good measure!

FWIW, 18z HRRR went south

Still snowing:

Still looking at 18z NAM as it comes in, but the map Alex posted is consistent with what I'm seeing. Another move south with the snow for the second straight run.

This is all i need to see with the 18Z NAM. The mid-levels are about 50 miles south of 12Z and closed off. Very nice. Part of it is the northern resistance is noticeably stronger.

18z NAM: Cold press to the North is more stout; Storm is further south coming out of the Tennessee Valley; 850s are colder further south; 850s below 0*C all the way down to the South Jersey coast early Tuesday AM; H5 energy is further south and comes off the coast at southern tip of Delmarva (last run was off Delaware proper near Cape May).
This run would move axis of heavy snow south of last couple runs for sure.

Negative tilt h5 and ellipse (showing resistance) is stronger and broader than 12Z. That h5 would be a significant snowstorm right on the I95.  Also realize the negative tilt will throw abundant moisture back to the coast. CCB can set up and dump for several hours.

18z NAM. Now that’s a southern shift:

Can we trust the nam model? Especially with the euro and gfs being different? Is the nam usually correct or incorrect?

I would not read too much into the 18z NAM snow map verbatim. What's more important is that the dynamics are going colder, stronger and further south. And none of that is inconsistent with the shifts we saw in the other models at 12z.

3K NAM is MUCH Colder and has more confluence the N with a Northern Vort that has just swung down.
Snow map is drool worthy for the region

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can we trust the nam model? Especially with the euro and gfs being different? Is the nam usually correct or incorrect?

I'd say a couple things. One: I don't think there is a dominant model anymore that is more correct than the others. They all seem to have their good moments and bad moments. I've alternatively in any give storm recently heard people say the Euro, GFS, and NAM are rubish. So have to just really be careful about buying into any of them verbatim and can't really throw any model out or bank entirely on any model. Two: The GFS and Euro both trended south/colder on their last runs (12z) so they're not as far out of step with the NAM as you might think. Although clearly this particular NAM run is a big shift so I'd want to see more agreement from other models in the next couple runs before buying in completely.