Re: 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:53 pm

pdubz wrote:no matter what...

i think first time we can use this both

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 14 E0ffe6fe3ee58054aacadef84427f5aa

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:55 pm

Wall clouds being reported in Florida. Bernie Rayno's last video say thundersnow is likely. It's a hard forecast though so I'm pretty much 50/50 on it, someone tell me when heaviest snow is supposed to arrive? I don't feel like doing UTC conversion haha. Gonna set an alarm, 8am good or too late?

by **pdubz** Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:57 pm

Florida

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 14 Post-21746-1392251847

by **2004blackwrx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:57 pm

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:59 pm

Frank I see that map says 7pm, is that before the CCB comes through? If so I am gonna get hammered has 9.8 in Yonkers.

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:00 pm

the one by blackwrx at 7:49pm a bit above.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:02 pm

Dry air is working into the core of the storm. Maybe this is a temporary situation. If not, qpf amounts would be lessened

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 14 Wv-animated

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 14 Wv-animated

The orange is the dry air

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:02 pm

nutley I hope you are right!

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:04 pm

No No thats no good frank, hope its temporary!

by **2004blackwrx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:06 pm

Yea the map I posted from NWS only goes that far in time with the snow but this is total qpf for storm 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 14 2-13-114

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 14 2-13-114

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:09 pm

Wow black if it stays mostly snow easily 12-15 inches.

by **cooladi** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:09 pm

Still haven't decided if I should try to make it into NYC to work in the morning or not. Really concerned that even if I make it in, I might not make it back home. Then of course there's Friday to worry about. This is seriously a nowcast storm, so will be checking back here around 4 am to see what this board's thoughts are.

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:11 pm

cooladi i asked the same earlier. If I don't go in tomorrow I will have to go in Friday and vice versa. Hard to know.

by meeka312 Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:16 pm

I can tell everyone now I commute to NYC from Monmouth county and academy bus is starting to cancel buses already for the am. So check your bus schedules.

by **cooladi** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:17 pm

Absolutely hard to know, this has been a total roller coaster ride. I have great confidence in Frank's forecasts, he called SuperStorm Sandy accurrately and way ahead of everyone else and over the years has been so spot on that I now have people asking me for his forecasts. So assuming his forecast on this is correct, sad truth is travel will be highly challenging starting tomorrow morning and continuing through Friday until this mess is cleared and we're all back up and running. Just don't feel responsible making the decision until I hear tomorrow morning if the forecast is truly holding since this system is so complex.

by **2004blackwrx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:18 pm

My decision is easy I have to be at work.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:19 pm

You know what is ridiculous? This storm is a few hours from starting and the EURO and GFS are still worlds apart on how everything happens. Just embarassing.

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:19 pm

theres our storm, love this map!

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-78.78,36.46,2177

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:20 pm

EURO has support though, GFS does not.

NAM comes in around 9pm. I wonder if it still shows crazy 12+ amounts from eastern PA to NYC.

by **cooladi** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:20 pm

Where does funding come from to upgrade the software for the models?

by **Quietace** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:21 pm

cooladi wrote:Where does funding come from to upgrade the software for the models?

My weather life goal is to get the GFS replaced.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:22 pm

cooladi wrote:Where does funding come from to upgrade the software for the models?

Tax

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:24 pm

latest from upton.. A WEAK SE FLOW/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN LI HAS
RESULTED IN FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN JUST NOW
ENTERING SOUTHERN VA. TIMING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP
IS STILL ON COURSE FOR AROUND MIDNIGHT...SPREADING FIRST ACROSS
NYC METRO..NE NJ...AND LI.

INTERESTING TO NOTE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS GULF COAST STATES, MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS ANALYZED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH THE FORMER THE PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON THU.

NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING FORECASTS THIS
WINTER FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...WITH THE TIMING AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. HEAVIEST PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH A CHANGEOVER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. EXACTLY WHEN THAT HAPPENS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:26 pm

Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

by **docstox12** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:27 pm

Upton will still not commit to the location of the rain/snow line.

by **docstox12** Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Due to the faster pace of the storm, I am now expecting heaviest snows to fall between 2am-8am with a changeover for coastal sections (and maybe a dry slot) around 10-11am

Guess I'll be waking up around 4 AM to check.

by HEATMISER Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:28 pm

algae888 wrote:latest from upton.. A WEAK SE FLOW/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN LI HAS
RESULTED IN FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN JUST NOW
ENTERING SOUTHERN VA. TIMING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP
IS STILL ON COURSE FOR AROUND MIDNIGHT...SPREADING FIRST ACROSS
NYC METRO..NE NJ...AND LI.

INTERESTING TO NOTE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS GULF COAST STATES, MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS ANALYZED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH THE FORMER THE PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ON THU.

NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING FORECASTS THIS
WINTER FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...WITH THE TIMING AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. HEAVIEST PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH A CHANGEOVER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. EXACTLY WHEN THAT HAPPENS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

Sounds to me upton may be setting us up for a bump is numbers

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