Re: February 18th Storm Discussion

by **Grselig** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:14 pm

Taffy wrote:Winter weather advisory is posted for my area..snowfall one inch tonight with a of 3-5 expected during the day.. This is more than I anticipated.

A bit more than I expected as I have to drive to work tomorrow. But mugs did inspire me in one of his posts to make homemade baileys and it is great.

by **Taffy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:17 pm

I never made the Bailey's but I have made Kahlua. It really was very good. I bottle it and give it out for Christmas...at least I think it's good. No one's died yet! lol careful into work..commute may be bad

by **oldtimer** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:19 pm

Radar looks good Storm over Chicago Most with pass way to our N When and where will the secondary form?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:23 pm

sroc4 wrote:If there is a heavy band of snow that makes it over LI esp early it may cool the surface temps enough to drop the 2-4" line a tad further south and east, but overall I do not think LI as a whole sees all that much accumulating snow with this due to warm surface temps. Id be fine busting low though.

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Solid call ATM, looks similar to mine.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:25 pm

My map I posted earlier for those who may have missed.

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 8 2_18st11

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:27 pm

I like your map doc....I hope that banding stays north of me!

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:28 pm

Very similar lines Tom.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:29 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:I like your map doc....I hope that banding stays north of me!

I don't, I could use an excuse to go to work late again.

by **aiannone** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:32 pm

I'm up in SVT for this storm. Ill post what i get here, but i won't be on the island for this one

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:34 pm

RAP has a .1" event, trending drier yet again from the all time peak of .75-1" the NAM showed at 12z, it's going to be a nowcast because the models are all over the friggin place unsurprisingly.

by **docstox12** Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:11 pm

Wow, dry to wet to dry again. Got to figure this will be less than expected, probably back to the original 1 to 3 they had posted at NWS yesterday.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:12 pm

docstox12 wrote:Wow, dry to wet to dry again. Got to figure this will be less than expected, probably back to the original 1 to 3 they had posted at NWS yesterday.

I wouldn't be surprised.

by **Joe Snow** Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:25 pm

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 8 A99k

Current Radar, Looks robust...........

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:11 pm

The past 3 RAP runs which have been in range for the whole event continue to show a less than .1" QPF snowhole in the northern half of NJ, southern HV, NYC and LI.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:22 pm

Latest trends since 12z have undoubtedly been dry. Looks like a nowcast type event but given these I am making a revision to my call for 1-3" where I previously had 2"+ to allow for possible lower amounts which are looking more likely and considering the past few clipper type events have underperformed.

by **pdubz** Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:23 pm

from twitter
February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 8 494ad6ef54

by **Joe Snow** Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:27 pm

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 8 H7d2

Current Radar

Precipitation field looks like it grew

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:05 pm

21z SREFs trended drier as well, it now appears that strong plume of moisture on the 12z NAM and 15z SREF runs will form too far to the south and go out of sea off the NJ coast, we are now looking at a 1-2" event IMO.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:20 pm

Radar looks pretty meh. We originally thought 1-3 inches, then models trended stronger today and we though 3-6 inches. Now it's back to a 1-3 inch event for most with isolated zones of 4-5 inches

by **pdubz** Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:44 pm

watch it flip again later tonight Neutral

and i hear some people say arctic cold coming not just cold

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:53 pm

pdubz wrote:from twitter

This is going to bust terribly in my humble opinion. Can't get 3-5" of snow or even 5-8" like this map shows with .1-.2" QPF especially with marginal surface temps and southeast fetch.

by **dad4twoboys** Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:00 pm

what time does southern Westchester see precip ??

wondering if I need to sleep in the truck again tonight.

by **pdubz** Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:03 pm

Mt Holly http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:06 pm

Final call, I made a mistake, the light blue inside the dashed line should be mainly rain T-1"

February 18th Storm Discussion - Page 8 2_18210

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:16 pm

I will now go to bed expecting 2-4 inches.

Anything up to 8 and as little as 1 inch will not surprise me either. I've seen maps and models in the last 24 hours supporting either extreme. The middle ground 2-4 most on this forum are predicting especially with the models trending dry then wet then dry seems reasonable, but this winter who knows.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:31 pm

I just spoke with my friend from Detroit, who was expecting to get 6-9 inches. He ended up getting only 3 and its been snowing there all day. A lot of dry air with this storm. Big bust potential tomorrow. Warning all of you now. NYC Metro may only get C-1 inch, 2 inches max, I think. Pretty crazy turn of events

by **pdubz** Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:14 pm

great... another clipper that fades away but its break week anyway then back to the cold

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