2nd call snow map / timing, March 3rd Storm Discussion 3.0

VERY GOOD READ BY EPAWA!!!
http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-2/

epawa not sold on the south solution.  I like that.

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 58m
In fact the moisture transport is clearly further north than the 12Z models suggest.

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 20m
But I still likely the idea of a more robust storm from NYC/LI on south.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Looking at the national radar the first batch of precip is still so far north in Michigan, can't imagine it can dive so far south being so close to us now.....looks like it should have heading south by ow if it is going to be a jackpot for mid-atlantic, I know we have a second piece coming, but I don't know about this....

http://www.weather.gov/current

Not the same system really, just an overrunning batch, it's exactly where it's supposed to be per 18z NAM

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrf06.html

What I was thinking is if this moisture is still this far north, the PV might not have as strong a push south...

I read that EPAWA blog and it holds some hope for a north bump.Lot's of mixing issues in areas getting the most snow.Don't understand that if this thing is going south and east of us with all this cold air.

I want a big storm as much as anyone else but the fact is it's still looking grim if not trending grimmer.

Tom, just curious, did you read EPAWA's blog?

Mets2695 wrote:Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

Who knows, maybe the WRF will pull it out for us. Maybe this could be another boxing day blizzard redux. Remember tracking that storm well. On christmas eve afternoon went to check out the 12z runs. The GFS was hinting at a possible major storm. All the experts kept saying to ignore it, was just initialization errors. All the mets were calling for a few inches. I was totally bummed out. When I left the house at around 5pm, the thread on the storm on the American wx weather site was 12 pages long. By the time I came back home at 11:30 that night, the thread grew to 38 pages!!! Right there I knew. My wife called me from downstairs to open up the gifts. I replied back to her, I already did!

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Mets2695 wrote:Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

Who knows, maybe the WRF will pull it out for us. Maybe this could be another boxing day blizzard redux. Remember tracking that storm well. On christmas eve afternoon went to check out the 12z runs. The GFS was hinting at a possible major storm. All the experts kept saying to ignore it, was just initialization errors. All the mets were calling for a few inches. I was totally bummed out. When I left the house at around 5pm, the thread on the storm on the American wx weather site was 12 pages long. By the time I came back home at 11:30 that night, the thread grew to 38 pages!!! Right there I knew. My wife called me from downstairs to open up the gifts. I replied back to her, I already did!

Please dont use BDB as a example. Totally different setup and probability with this one. Honestly, BDB was luck, this is just the pattern itself.

Hoping I can still pull out 4 to 6 with northward shift, but, as you say Tom, it's looking grim at this point. Maybe the hope is stronger because we are really running out of time and next week is pretty dry except for a possible rainstorm later on.

Yes I did, they think a trend north due to the southern energy not being fully sampled and enhanced moisture stream to the north. It's just a groups opinion and I respect that but I do not agree with it. Just airing on the side of caution here, if I see a trend with the models tonight into tomorrow I'll jump on it but with every storm people try to come up with minute differences between obs and the models and try to form a conclusion that the models are wrong, but this is usually just wishcasting. I've seen it with almost every storm when the solution isn't jackpot in someone's BY then they look for everything to prove it wrong. Saw it with 2/6/2010 where people said that current radar trends or something suggest further north movement but in the end the PV still won out and pushed the storm and the precip shield southeast. Notice it's EASTERN PA weather authority, sure the DC groups are seeing things much different. Wanting snow so much can sometimes distort reality.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I want a big storm as much as anyone else but the fact is it's still looking grim if not trending grimmer.

While true that may be, we are all Weenies looking for a crack in the armor that would give up the proverbial 10' feet of snow.

Scientifically what is happening (I made this out of boredom)

Quietace wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Mets2695 wrote:Can we hug this?
http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

Who knows, maybe the WRF will pull it out for us. Maybe this could be another boxing day blizzard redux. Remember tracking that storm well. On christmas eve afternoon went to check out the 12z runs. The GFS was hinting at a possible major storm. All the experts kept saying to ignore it, was just initialization errors. All the mets were calling for a few inches. I was totally bummed out. When I left the house at around 5pm, the thread on the storm on the American wx weather site was 12 pages long. By the time I came back home at 11:30 that night, the thread grew to 38 pages!!! Right there I knew. My wife called me from downstairs to open up the gifts. I replied back to her, I already did!

Please dont use BDB as a example. Totally different setup and probability with this one. Honestly, BDB was luck, this is just the pattern itself.

i know, that storm was in a different setup. The point I was trying to make was although pretty rare, there have been cases where storms can make pretty dramatic changes even inside 36 hours. Another storm that comes to mind was the blizzard of '83. I never said this storm is a blizzard, its just you never know when it comes to the weather.

Lol Tom!!

Tom that is fantastic!

Maybe when the storm hits the ocean it comes to a complete stop, strengthens, and moves the slowest a storm has ever moved north east, and all the northeastern states get snow till Wednesday morning and we all have 60" of snow. That's my wish cast. I have no facts to back it up except hope.................
 
Lol

Scullybutcher wrote:Maybe when the storm hits the ocean it comes to a complete stop, strengthens, and moves the slowest a storm has ever moved north east, and all the northeastern states get snow till Wednesday morning and we all have 60" of snow. That's my wish cast. I have no facts to back it up except hope.................
 
Lol

I have always wondered what is the set up to stall a storm out and just go completely nuclear and get 30+ inches

This is what i see the NAM and GFS trending back to tonight or early tmw. Middle-ground solution like the 6z GFS had today

Mets2695 wrote:This is what i see the NAM and GFS trending back to tonight or early tmw. Middle-ground solution like the 6z GFS had today

wow it can come back to this solution? ugh i havent been able to be at my computer or phone all day lol

Just got word models will have extra data in them tonight and Upton feels models will change. Either adjust north or continue south. I won't be home until 11:30. We'll see what happens

Mets2695 wrote:This is what i see the NAM and GFS trending back to tonight or early tmw. Middle-ground solution like the 6z GFS had today

Wouldn't exactly consider that middle ground at this juncture. Middle ground ATM would be to bring Philly back into the heavy snows and possible moderate up this way from NYC and south, north would still be light.

From Garrett Bastardi on AWE
Some encouraging news for those who want to see this come farther north. After some studying of the 500mb maps, on the left is the actual 500mb map valid 00z. On the right is the GFS's thoughts as to what the 500mb would look like at 00z. Clearly the S/W in the southwest is stronger and a tad farther SE with a min height of 551dm. While the GFS depicted 555dm at the same time. Like I mentioned its also a bit farther east which will help with the system at the SFC becoming deeper. Now with the PV, it is a tad farther west, weaker and the wave of energy that has been being depicted by the models that suppresses the system once it gets in the east is much weaker than modeled which is a good thing. This is not grasping at straws, this is facts at what is actually going on in the atmosphere, compared to what computers are saying. So with this being said I am willing to be we see a trend N tonight, and see the system continue to move north all the way through to the storm. Maybe not a gigantic jump, but i could see at least another 75miles left of shifting. A may not happen that far, but that is definitely on the table IMO.

Mets2695 wrote:From Garrett Bastardi on AWE
Some encouraging news for those who want to see this come farther north. After some studying of the 500mb maps, on the left is the actual 500mb map valid 00z. On the right is the GFS's thoughts as to what the 500mb would look like at 00z. Clearly the S/W in the southwest is stronger and a tad farther SE with a min height of 551dm. While the GFS depicted 555dm at the same time. Like I mentioned its also a bit farther east which will help with the system at the SFC becoming deeper. Now with the PV, it is a tad farther west, weaker and the wave of energy that has been being depicted by the models that suppresses the system once it gets in the east is much weaker than modeled which is a good thing. This is not grasping at straws, this is facts at what is actually going on in the atmosphere, compared to what computers are saying. So with this being said I am willing to be we see a trend N tonight, and see the system continue to move north all the way through to the storm. Maybe not a gigantic jump, but i could see at least another 75miles left of shifting. A may not happen that far, but that is definitely on the table IMO.

Guess it runs in the family lmao

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Mets2695 wrote:From Garrett Bastardi on AWE
Some encouraging news for those who want to see this come farther north. After some studying of the 500mb maps, on the left is the actual 500mb map valid 00z. On the right is the GFS's thoughts as to what the 500mb would look like at 00z. Clearly the S/W in the southwest is stronger and a tad farther SE with a min height of 551dm. While the GFS depicted 555dm at the same time. Like I mentioned its also a bit farther east which will help with the system at the SFC becoming deeper. Now with the PV, it is a tad farther west, weaker and the wave of energy that has been being depicted by the models that suppresses the system once it gets in the east is much weaker than modeled which is a good thing. This is not grasping at straws, this is facts at what is actually going on in the atmosphere, compared to what computers are saying. So with this being said I am willing to be we see a trend N tonight, and see the system continue to move north all the way through to the storm. Maybe not a gigantic jump, but i could see at least another 75miles left of shifting. A may not happen that far, but that is definitely on the table IMO.

Guess it runs in the family lmao

Lol Guess so.

Honestly what I can see is what I was expecting on current radar

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=default&animate=true

You can see how the precipitation was fairly flat earlier today and is now beginning to bow southeast. This is the PV beginning to pivot to the south which will ultimately end up steering the storm tomorrow as it pushes further south. I agree maybe it may not be as extreme south as it was today but IMO it's just going to wiggle a bit to the north if anything, maybe instead of the .3" QPF we saw on the 18z GFS it'll go up to .4-.5 maybe .6, IMO nothing drastic and we get a bit of moderate snow at best. Philly I think will see 8" or so and DC will do the best out of the big cities potentially surpassing a foot.