Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:11 am

Frank its been a very unusual summer thus far with all the troughs in the eastern US. The bermuda high is no where to be found. I know its a long way off, but let's hope this pattern holds up this upcoming winter. Can you imagine the potential with a Rex Block along with a weak El Nino! Should be an interesting next several months to see how everything unfolds.

by **amugs** Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:38 am

nutleyblizzard wrote: Frank its been a very unusual summer thus far with all the troughs in the eastern US. The bermuda high is no where to be found. I know its a long way off, but let's hope this pattern holds up this upcoming winter. Can you imagine the potential with a Rex Block along with a weak El Nino! Should be an interesting next several months to see how everything unfolds.

From your post to God's ears as they say! Nuts this would be epic if this were to occur in late Jan to mid feb timeframe that is the snowiest period of our winter here, historically speaking.

Also, looks to be a wet period as well the first week or two in Aug we look to be near normal temps doing wonders for my electric bill not using the a/c!! Very Happy

by **jmanley32** Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:24 am

It will be interesting especially if this new tropical development(see tropics section) goes on its current path which per the GFS brings it on the directly same path as Bertha in 1996, but if the block is there won't be able to continue into and up the EC like it did in 1996. It would be awesome to have some good godzillas and maybe a roidzilla too, shoot lets go for a frankroidzilla!

by **amugs** Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:10 pm

HEAT WAVE over the next 10 days - NCEP says.........................NO Friggin Way!!

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 9 Post-7472-0-82452900-1406572522

by HeresL Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:16 am

Please tell me that summer temps will return! It's 53 here this morning. This is nuts! We're going camping in a few weeks... I'd like to be able to swim.

by **amugs** Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:33 am

57* here this morning at a very pleasant and September like 75* here for the end of July.

HereL we should back to some humidity and 80's over the 10 day period with some unsettled wet weather from Fri to Sun.

Hey, you may be asking for 53* in a few weeks?

by HeresL Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:49 pm

I hope you are right, Mugs! As you can see in my profile pic, I've got some boating to do Very Happy

It's much better when it's hot and the kids would rather be in the water! Lol

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:09 pm

HeresL wrote:Please tell me that summer temps will return! It's 53 here this morning. This is nuts! We're going camping in a few weeks... I'd like to be able to swim.

When are you camping? Mid August?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:28 pm

Wow, Euro is robust on precip for 10 day, 6 inches in some paces, due to a combo of this weekend and another low that looks similar to the one that spawned the severe weather (not here) but looks to affect us much more directly, not sure if I right about that park but it shows a low rotating through around 210 hours so osomething to watch. Noted Euro alos developing 93L much more now but no threat to land at this point.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 9 Euro_p10

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 9 Euro_p10

by HeresL Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:57 pm

When are you camping? Mid August?[/quote]

Yes... Lake George Aug 16th...

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:08 am

I'm expecting it to warm up significantly mid August. This coolness won't last forever.

by HeresL Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm expecting it to warm up significantly mid August. This coolness won't last forever.

From your mouth to Mother Nature's ears, Frank!!!

by **amugs** Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:57 pm

HeresL wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I'm expecting it to warm up significantly mid August. This coolness won't last forever.

From your mouth to Mother Nature's ears, Frank!!!

We have to watch what this Cyclone Halong does in the Pacific after it recurves up and then drops down into into Canada - does it drop down as a strong cold front and cool us down for a period (3-4 days or does it moderate? My guess is it it cool us down around the 14th and we bounce out of this by the 17-18 and we get some heat and humidity - only time will tell. bounce

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:47 pm

Joe bastardi says on his private blog that tropics will heat up after August 18th (maybe warmth too?) in near the coast. I dunno what to think about that but I did notice with 00z Euro shows a huge low developing off the Carolinas and at this time going OTS. Is this a frontal low or is it possibly some tropical charecteristics like Arthur did? Would it possibly be of any concern to us, it certain drops a immense amount of rain in the 10 day to the south thats for sure.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:04 am

Mid to late August looks pretty warm and sticky. This may last into September as well. I'll have a better update sometime this week with a blog.

by **docstox12** Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:47 pm

Interesting obs. from Channel 7 weather a few days ago.They said the last four summers were all above average but this one is average.It seems cool, they reason, in comparison to the hotter ones prior.Wonder how that affects winter? Hotter summer,colder winter? more snow?

Still waiting for the obligatory one week heat wave 90 plus/high humidity each day.Time is passing!

by **devsman** Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:27 pm

Read In newsday today that Long range forecasters are predicting cold waves in september dropping temps to low 60's during the day and low 40's at night. About 10 degrees below avg. And also predicting that december and january are going to be very cold with possible big coastal storms. But October is supposed to be beautiful.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:12 am

docstox12 wrote:Interesting obs. from Channel 7 weather a few days ago.They said the last four summers were all above average but this one is average.It seems cool, they reason, in comparison to the hotter ones prior.Wonder how that affects winter? Hotter summer,colder winter? more snow?

Still waiting for the obligatory one week heat wave 90 plus/high humidity each day.Time is passing!

I think we may get a week like that in late August or early September. That's when I see a mini pattern change taking place. Until then, relatively beautiful weather. Especially the evenings. As for the winter, time will tell, a lot will depend on the El Niño and whether or not it comes to fruition.

devsman wrote:Read In newsday today that Long range forecasters are predicting cold waves in september dropping temps to low 60's during the day and low 40's at night. About 10 degrees below avg. And also predicting that december and january are going to be very cold with possible big coastal storms. But October is supposed to be beautiful.

Not sure I agree with those forecasts.

by **algae888** Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:32 pm

frank accu weather has there fall outlook and says polar vortex can make an appearance in sept as devsman wrote about yesterday. what are your thoughts? I would prefer that it moves down into our area in late nov and dec. why waste cold air early on.

by **algae888** Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:52 pm

models back off the big storm idea for mid week. looks like mainly a 1" rain event without any severe weather. nws wording backed off of the wind and possible tornadoes with this system. we shall see

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:45 pm

algae888 wrote:frank accu weather has there fall outlook and says polar vortex can make an appearance in sept as devsman wrote about yesterday. what are your thoughts? I would prefer that it moves down into our area in late nov and dec. why waste cold air early on.

I disagree for now. I'll have my own outlook out this week.

algae888 wrote:models back off the big storm idea for mid week. looks like mainly a 1" rain event without any severe weather. nws wording backed off of the wind and possible tornadoes with this system. we shall see

Sounds about right. I never was enthused.

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:29 pm

Posting here because this is mostly long range but responds to nutleys post in August observations:

Ohh nutley you got the snow weenie goin in me : ) Just wish I had a garage so I didnt have to dig two cars out every time I move to go to work etc. And I get it now of course the higher totals are due to higher convection. Yes so a stall would be necessary. Doesn't seem all that likely to me but hey, Sandy happened and we never expected a storm like that. FYI I know we do not believe really in the Farmers almanac but it calls for a hurricane in September to move inland in the midatlantic NY area (that wouldn't be good), and a "halloween trick, stormy weather" Havent had many halloweens past 5 years work out, wonder what this year holds. Also says strong noreaster in November around thanksgiving I believe, just food for thought on the fact that could be active up here fall and winter, although yes I understand its fartmers almanac and its as good a guess as any that far out years in fact. Hoping for some good blizzards this year. Bastardi also calling for above average snowfall, another bit zealous to say the least long range forecaster lol. Cannot wait to see Franks Ideas in November, man thats a long ways off.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:59 pm

Sorry to wake the snow weenies up from there slumbers… normally I'd be in full gear into hurricane season by now; things have been slow to say the least. A lot of forecasters expect it to remain that way with the impending El Nino. That's okay, I'm more of a snow weenie at heart, and any potential El Nino for the upcoming winter would only add to the potential for big snows. Still that's over 3 months away, so until then I hope for at least a couple of hurricanes to track.

by **mako460** Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:00 pm

Here is the ultimate KOD (kiss of death) New Farmer's Almanac predictions are out. Entire NE area "Super Cold" and way above normal snowfall totals.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:14 pm

The Almanac predicted a very humid and warm summer. They were wrong.

by **mako460** Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:34 pm

Hence the KOD, LOL. It's a long ways away. Let's just hope they are right for this one time.

by **docstox12** Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:07 am

mako460 wrote:Here is the ultimate KOD (kiss of death) New Farmer's Almanac predictions are out. Entire NE area "Super Cold" and way above normal snowfall totals.

Mako, I was thinking after your post.We need our statistician CP (where are you?) to run a study of Farmer's Almanacs the last 50 years on what they predicted for the winter in our area and what actually occured.I'd be curious to know what their accuracy rating would be.

Personally, I have no idea on the coming winter at this point.Frank will be on that one, he can figure all the teleconnections (ElNino?) and give us an idea in a few months.

by Sponsored content