Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[mako460]

Hence the KOD, LOL. It's a long ways away. Let's just hope they are right for this one time.

[docstox12]

Here is the ultimate KOD (kiss of death)  New Farmer's Almanac predictions are out.  Entire NE area "Super Cold" and way above normal snowfall totals.

Mako, I was thinking after your post.We need our statistician CP (where are you?) to run a study of Farmer's Almanacs the last 50 years on what they predicted for the winter in our area and what actually occured.I'd be curious to know what their accuracy rating would be.

Personally, I have no idea on the coming winter at this point.Frank will be on that one, he can figure all the teleconnections (ElNino?) and give us an idea in a few months.

[docstox12]

Hence the KOD, LOL.  It's a long ways away.  Let's just hope they are right for this one  time.

LOL, wondering if they are that bad, you can use them as a guide for having the exact OPPOSITE happen for what they are predicting.

[HectorO]

This summer kind of reminded me of the summer of 2009 except that summer was cooler. I believe it was the 4th or 5th coolest summer recorded. It was followed by a decent winter. Not sure how all this will pan out but we'll see. This summer has been nice, followed by periods of humidity and heat. Looks like this coming week will be toasty and the patter might go into early September. As far as a polar vortex making an appearance in September/October, although Frank disagrees, I don't see it as impossible, since during early August there were periods where I woke up in the morning seeing my breath because of how chilly it was. It's all wishcasting from here on out.

[Frank_Wx]

We know this week is going to be warm, but how about September?



The GFS, as well as other guidance, is suggesting September is going to start out warmer than normal. Given that our summer has been around average, with some cool days mixed in, this does not surprise me and I think it has merit.

I think September will start off warm and it could continue into most of the month. In fact, there is a chance Central Park sees their first heat wave in early September. Imagine that. A heat wave in Meteorological Fall after not having one the entire summer!

[Frank_Wx]

I agree with others that September is likely to open above normal. After almost an entire summer of Atlantic blocking, we are seeing that subside for September which allows the positive heights to build into the northeast. A mid-level trough in the upper midwest with higher heights off the east coast will put us under a southwesterly flow which will usher in the warmer temps. That being said, once that trough over Alaska moves out it will allow the -EPO to flex its muscles again which leads me to believe the second half of September will not be as warm. Probably around average. Overall, probably a warm month though. +1 to +2

[HectorO]

I always got a kick out of "meteorological fall" The beginning of September to me is anything but fall. December 1st for the meteorological winter sounds about right since things take a big cool down by then. Second half of the month cool down sounds about right. By then it fall will start. It's going to be interesting to see how the foliage reacts. Those chilly mornings we had in August, I see many trees in my area that have started turning. I drove through section of yellow colored leaves and leaves all over the ground ready to be raked.

[jmanley32]

IMO we are going to have a cold and snowy winter (knocking on wood to please those who are superstitious). I am hoping for some decent 6+ storms, one or two 12+ and maybe we can even squeeze out a roidzilla if we are lucky. Only time will tell but the seasons changing the way they are I also wouldn't be surprised at another early season snow like in October or early november. But per our discussion with frank at lunch there is alot to work out and we have to watch for certain this he discussed that I am still learning about. SO I will watch for updates and see what happens.

[docstox12]

I always got a kick out of "meteorological fall" The beginning of September to me is anything but fall. December 1st for the meteorological winter sounds about right since things take a big cool down by then. Second half of the month cool down sounds about right. By then it fall will start. It's going to be interesting to see how the foliage reacts. Those chilly mornings we had in August, I see many trees in my area that have started turning. I drove through section of yellow colored leaves and leaves all over the ground ready to be raked.

I think you are right about those chilly mornings.I'm seeing early changes in some trees and bushes.We have a two trees shedding leaves already up in Monroe and an oak dropping acorns.Perhaps this warm-up slated for the next couple of weeks will slow that down.

[Frank_Wx]

Breaking news:

The latest weekly ONI for niño region 3.4 is up to +0.3

For those who went to the lunch, you will remember I said last week it was at 0.0 

This is a significant warming. Once it reaches +0.5, that would be El Niño territory.

[sroc4]

It has to be + 0.5 or higher for 3 months to be official El Niño right?

[Frank_Wx]

It has to be + 0.5 or higher for 3 months to be official El Niño right?

Correct.

3 consecutive months.

[mako460]

ou are right about those chilly mornings.I'm seeing early changes in some trees and bushes.We have a two trees shedding leaves already up in Monroe and an oak dropping acorns.Perhaps this warm-up slated for the next couple of weeks will slow that down.

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Mahwah NJ
Winter 2013-2014
Snow Total 62.00 inches to date

docstox12
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Doc, how many times are we going to have the acorn discussion? LOL. Actually if they started falling already, the warmer weather would only enhance it. I know that sounds weird but the process has already started and nothing can stop it. The warmer weather only increases the transpiration rate of the rest of the tree and causes the axillary buds to shut down so they dont lose too much moisture. Think of it this way, when a woman reaches menopause, her hormones start shutting down and they will decrease every year for the rest of her life. Each tree goes thru menopause every year and shed their linings. Once it starts nothing is going to stop the process.. Sorry for the awful metaphor but it is what it is.

[Dunnzoo]

One thing I noticed, the squirrels are tearing apart pine cones....they are shredding them I think looking for the pine nuts....never seen anything like it before. Are they short of food now and eating them or are they storing it up....

[Frank_Wx]

Mako, you may wanna fix your signature :o

[docstox12]

ou are right about those chilly mornings.I'm seeing early changes in some trees and bushes.We have a two trees shedding leaves already up in Monroe and an oak dropping acorns.Perhaps this warm-up slated for the next couple of weeks will slow that down.

_________________
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Mahwah NJ
Winter 2013-2014
Snow Total    62.00 inches to date

docstox12
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Doc, how many times are we going to have the acorn discussion? LOL.  Actually if they started falling already, the warmer weather would only enhance it.    I know that sounds weird but the process has already started and nothing can stop it.  The warmer weather only increases the transpiration rate of the rest of the tree and causes the axillary buds to shut down so they dont lose too much moisture.  Think of it this way, when a woman reaches menopause, her hormones start shutting down and they will decrease every year for the rest of her life.  Each tree goes thru menopause every year and shed their linings.  Once it starts nothing is going to stop the process..  Sorry for the awful metaphor but it is what it is.

[docstox12]

Uh,oh,Mako, now I know a button I can use on you with those acorns,LOL! I'm going to have to work that in to my "Snow Weenie" postings somehow.Only teasing,Mako, you are right on the whole thing.

Love that menopausal oak tree discussion.I could have used that when my SO was going through that.At the time, she would "throw" a lot of those "acorns" in my face,LOL!

[sroc4]

Uh,oh,Mako, now I know a button I can use on you with those acorns,LOL! I'm going to have to work that in to my "Snow Weenie" postings somehow.Only teasing,Mako, you are right on the whole thing.

Love that menopausal oak tree discussion.I could have used that when my SO was going through that.At the time, she would "throw" a lot of those "acorns" in my face,LOL!

I almost spit my coffee out reading the last few posts. Lol. Thanks Mako and Doc.

[docstox12]

Hey, Doc, good to hear! Nothing like starting your day with a laugh.Mako threw me a nice fat one down the middle of the plate,LOL!

Have a great day, Doc!

[mako460]

Glad i could make everyone laugh. Frank, what do u mean by checking my signature.?

[Frank_Wx]

Glad i could make everyone laugh.  Frank, what do u mean by checking my signature.?

Haha, for some reason the post you made the page before showed up beneath the dotted line so I thought you accidentally messed up your signature. Anyways, it was a funny post. Got a laugh out of it.

[amugs]

Frank and all check out the sst's of the NA - holy smokes it is on fire up
there - wonder what this means going forward?? - NAO perhaps? Interesting.

[nutleyblizzard]

Frank and all check out the sst's of the NA - holy smokes it is on fire up
there -  wonder what this means going forward?? - NAO perhaps? Interesting.

That's a classic western based Greenland block. Too bad its only late August. If that block stays persistent into the winter though, we'll be locked and loaded!

[amugs]

Frank and all check out the sst's of the NA - holy smokes it is on fire up
there -  wonder what this means going forward?? - NAO perhaps? Interesting.

That's a classic western based Greenland block. Too bad its only late August. If that block stays persistent into the winter though, we'll be locked and loaded!

Beautiful, Now like you Sid if we get this from early Dec and can hold until late Zfebruary our chances are then good for this and ll snow weenie's   - NAO persists going forward wrong frickin season like a baby getting his days n nights mixed up or is that doc?? Hahha 

[HectorO]

Yea doc, I don't mind warmer septembers and cooler Octobers. It's better than the other way around which is what happens at times. I've seen cool septembers lead in to warm balmy Octobers.

[Frank_Wx]

Of course the hot weather gets here just as school starts.

[mako460]

Go figure, lol. Fortunately for me i just put a pool in for my kids and this heat only helps to warm up the water.

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