Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[Frank_Wx]

Of course the hot weather gets here just as school starts.

[mako460]

Go figure, lol. Fortunately for me i just put a pool in for my kids and this heat only helps to warm up the water.

[amugs]

Go figure, lol.  Fortunately for me i just put a pool in for my kids and this heat only helps to warm up the water.

Looks like you will be getting some use out of that pool next month:

[algae888]

mugs next week (9th-16) looks to be very cool with highs in the 60's and several chances for rain. as for the end of the month into October, even though that map looks hot, temps probably in upper 70,s to low 80,s.

[amugs]

mugs next week (9th-16) looks to be very cool with highs in the 60's and several chances for rain. as for the end of the month into October, even though that map looks hot, temps probably in upper 70,s to low 80,s.

Al, I see that and things will be interesting as you have so pointed out - is it the lack of data due to the holiday weekend? Could be and if so I think come Tuesday's 12z runs we have a better picture going forward. I hear you on the map I showed not 90's due to climo and longer nights shorter days but 80's and Indian Summer - maybe.

70's/80's would be above normal by about 10*+ for this time of year since the average is 70* if it gets to 80 or higher.

[Isotherm]

Hey guys - what's up. Some of you might know me from American or Usawx.

There's an enormous amount of heat contained in the SST's across the nern hemisphere right now. These will likely cool as we head toward winter as is climo, but I expect the PDO and AMO will remain positive. Definite implications for the winter regime but that's awhile down the road.

For the shorter/medium term, I'm going +2 to +3 for temperature departures in the Northeast DCA-BOS corridor for September. If it's not in that range I'd expect the bust to be warmer not cooler than +2 to +3. The next week or so should rack up positive departures on the order of +5 to +10 when we couple the torrid days with the elevated minima/overnight lows. Second half of September will get cooler - duh - climo begins to plummet, but relative to normal I think the mean ridge stays near the East Coast for most of the next few weeks.

[Dunnzoo]

Hey guys - what's up. Some of you might know me from American or Usawx.

There's an enormous amount of heat contained in the SST's across the nern hemisphere right now. These will likely cool as we head toward winter as is climo, but I expect the PDO and AMO will remain positive. Definite implications for the winter regime but that's awhile down the road.

For the shorter/medium term, I'm going +2 to +3 for temperature departures in the Northeast DCA-BOS corridor for September. If it's not in that range I'd expect the bust to be warmer not cooler than +2 to +3. The next week or so should rack up positive departures on the order of +5 to +10 when we couple the torrid days with the elevated minima/overnight lows. Second half of September will get cooler - duh - climo begins to plummet, but relative to normal I think the mean ridge stays near the East Coast for most of the next few weeks.

Welcome! When you get a chance, would you mind adding your location to your profile? It helps when we all start posting obs, especially snow

Nice write-up....things are trending warmer.....

[amugs]

Hey guys - what's up. Some of you might know me from American or Usawx.

There's an enormous amount of heat contained in the SST's across the nern hemisphere right now. These will likely cool as we head toward winter as is climo, but I expect the PDO and AMO will remain positive. Definite implications for the winter regime but that's awhile down the road.

For the shorter/medium term, I'm going +2 to +3 for temperature departures in the Northeast DCA-BOS corridor for September. If it's not in that range I'd expect the bust to be warmer not cooler than +2 to +3. The next week or so should rack up positive departures on the order of +5 to +10 when we couple the torrid days with the elevated minima/overnight lows. Second half of September will get cooler - duh - climo begins to plummet, but relative to normal I think the mean ridge stays near the East Coast for most of the next few weeks.

WELCOME ABOARD Tom!!!

I hope you enjoy and share many tremendously informative w rite ups and predictions/analysis on this board as well.
I ver much look forward to your posts. 

I believe you will really like the folks on this board, very family oriented and many passionate weather weenie's!! 

A wonderfully great group of people on here.

Again, welcome.

Mugs ( aka Self Proclaimed - King Snow Weenie)

[amugs]

Looks like a hot one tomorrow like low to mid 90's then mid to upper 80's on we'd maybe 90 then we rebound to
the heat for fri and sat then a cold front moves through sat night into sun and we cool down and the above normal temps look to
try and return middle of next week - we shall see.

[Isotherm]

Thank you for the warm welcome and nice words mugs and dunnzoo! I added my location in my profile for future reference. Extended summer weather on the way this week.

[Frank_Wx]

Welcome aboard Tom! I think many people on here will appreciate your insight / knowledge / intelligence in regards to the weather, specifically long  range. 

This week continues to look warm with the -PNA in the west leading to ridging in the east. Definitely one of, if not the warmest, week of the summer for some folks. 

I do think by the weekend temps return back to normal. That's pretty consistent on guidance right now.

[HectorO]

Welcome aboard Tom! I think many people on here will appreciate your insight / knowledge / intelligence in regards to the weather, specifically long  range. 

This week continues to look warm with the -PNA in the west leading to ridging in the east. Definitely one of, if not the warmest, week of the summer for some folks. 

I do think by the weekend temps return back to normal. That's pretty consistent on guidance right now.

Yea, looks like late weekend. By starting Sunday and Monday the trend changes a little, still might be some low 80s next week maybe even mid 80s, but not like this week.

[Isotherm]

Welcome aboard Tom! I think many people on here will appreciate your insight / knowledge / intelligence in regards to the weather, specifically long  range. 

This week continues to look warm with the -PNA in the west leading to ridging in the east. Definitely one of, if not the warmest, week of the summer for some folks. 

I do think by the weekend temps return back to normal. That's pretty consistent on guidance right now.

Thanks Frank! It seems like you have some great people on this board. I agree about this coming week. As everyone heads back to work/school, now summer actually begins.

[nutleyblizzard]

Hey guys - what's up. Some of you might know me from American or Usawx.

There's an enormous amount of heat contained in the SST's across the nern hemisphere right now. These will likely cool as we head toward winter as is climo, but I expect the PDO and AMO will remain positive. Definite implications for the winter regime but that's awhile down the road.

For the shorter/medium term, I'm going +2 to +3 for temperature departures in the Northeast DCA-BOS corridor for September. If it's not in that range I'd expect the bust to be warmer not cooler than +2 to +3. The next week or so should rack up positive departures on the order of +5 to +10 when we couple the torrid days with the elevated minima/overnight lows. Second half of September will get cooler - duh - climo begins to plummet, but relative to normal I think the mean ridge stays near the East Coast for most of the next few weeks.

Good to see you on this weatherboard, Tom. American WX can get a little testy at times with all the bickering going around. With the upcoming winter coming up, you will be a great addition to this site.

[Vinnydula]

Heavy rain for about ten minutes. Tamp went from 94 to 78?

[Dunnzoo]

Had that quick downpour here too, the cell developed practically right over me...

[algae888]

we just have to get through these next 3-4 days and then we have a nice cool down. here is nws disco for early next week.

A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

[Frank_Wx]

we just have to get through these next 3-4 days and then we have a nice cool down. here is nws disco for early next week.

A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

Not sure I agree with them just yet. It depends how entrenched the trough gets over the northeast. There could be quite a bit of moderation before it gets here. We'll see how things look in a couple of days.

[Frank_Wx]

In my opinion, I do not think we see a noticeable cool down until mid to late September. We will remain above average to average through mid month.

[Frank_Wx]

The Canadian model says that once this warm regime moves out, the -EPO returns and a broad-scale trough invades the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, while the coast remains around average. If the trough gets to the coast (or even if it comes to fruition at all), will depend on the -EPO and +PNA.

[Frank_Wx]

Heavy rain for about ten minutes. Tamp went from 94 to 78?

After it rains in a very humid / muggy atmosphere it is not uncommon to see temps take a tumble like that. It may even warm up again depending on the time of day. Nice to see you post, Vinny.

[HectorO]

I agree, as I said above. Next week, starting Sunday, temps will be cooler and we'll see 70s but I think we'll still see some mid 80s even high 80s for another few days. Today was hot, but is it weird that I was expecting it to feel worse? Maybe it's just my Caribbean blood.

[Frank_Wx]

I agree, as I said above. Next week, starting Sunday, temps will be cooler and we'll see 70s but I think we'll still see some mid 80s even high 80s for another few days. Today was hot, but is it weird that I was expecting it to feel worse? Maybe it's just my Caribbean blood.

I thought today sucked. 

Maybe it is, haha

[Dunnzoo]

This morning was worse....after the downpour we had, it didn't seem as oppressive, much more tolerable.... I have to laugh at the media, saying 85*- 88* is hot....I don't consider it hot until it is at least 90*, we have been so spoiled with the temps this summer, hi 80's is not hot!

[Frank_Wx]

This morning was worse....after the downpour we had, it didn't seem as oppressive, much more tolerable.... I have to laugh at the media, saying 85*- 88* is hot....I don't consider it hot until it is at least 90*, we have been so spoiled with the temps this summer, hi 80's is not hot!  

Some areas did see low 90's today. I think Newark hit it.

[jmanley32]

I do not care if it was 80 or 90, the humidity is what drives me nuts, it was awful today!

[amugs]

This morning was worse....after the downpour we had, it didn't seem as oppressive, much more tolerable.... I have to laugh at the media, saying 85*- 88* is hot....I don't consider it hot until it is at least 90*, we have been so spoiled with the temps this summer, hi 80's is not hot!  

Some areas did see low 90's today. I think Newark hit it.

We hit it 91.4* in Hillsdale today   ,!! 

Janet temps wise no but with the dew pt and humidity in the 70's it was gross out today.

[Sponsored content]