Re: Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
Snow88 wrote:GFS is always the last model to come on board

Goo Fu S - SUCKS - when are we going to realize this with these complex phased type storms - I am sorry but even last winter I had these sentiments and the Euro kicked its but when are we getting the update on this going? 2015? Is the para replacing this - i forget but I read it is being delayed - what else is new.

I saw someone post this on FB describing the GFS. Pretty funny:

Gfs is like a crack head living in the projects trying to stay clean. Living in a halfway house by day, tempted for the rock by night. Trying to do right, gets wrapped back up into it's b.s, and sh-ts the bed. You never know what's going through its mind.....

Lol, it just cant compute these types of situations, was showing Sandy OTS for a while until it finally realized it was wrong but it did that whole storm wrong as it was happening...

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:44 pm

That literally made me lol ahaha So based on what I'm seeing in the EURO OP, it looks like the upper-levels (H7/H5) are modeled to close off too early for most of us to see any really decent snow, except maybe those of us in the extreme NW. This is because the deformation axis is kept further north over northern and central NY state with the low(s) positioned almost overhead. That said, I cannot recall a time where we have seen a binary low system develop anywhere; there is always one that takes over very rapidly. As such, because the "second", or closed low that is west of the "first" is associated with the main and deepening polar energy, I would tend to think that is the one that we need to watch. I think the EURO is having issues with this right now, which is why the precip shield is so broad in coverage. I agree that there will be a nice comma-head, but not one that is so disorganized. IF that polar energy waits to close off another 12-18 hours, then we would all be in the money for a heck of a storm. To be honest, we may still see that happen, especially if the initial energy ends up being weaker than modeled, because that is what is allowing the ridge to cyclonically break over the deepening trough, and thus the closing off of the western energy. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but either way, this is going to change with each run until late this weekend. Just my two cents.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:50 pm

The ensembles close off too late, which is why only northern New England get snow. However, there is a portion (maybe about 25% or so?) that close off in the opportune window. We will have to see if we can gain support for that cluster over the next several runs, specifically tomorrow and Sunday.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:07 pm

MT HOLLY just tweeted possible coastal storm Mon-Wed, rain and wind main impacts, poss. snow in the poconos.

by **algae888** Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:31 pm

euro similar to cmc however much colder and a day later.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 F120

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:48 pm

12z EURO OP=GORGEOUSSSSSSSSSSS RUN.......How I wish this was Monday morning ahahaha I will say, though, notice the lack of the binary mid-level lows. In my opinion, this is much more reasonable than the previous run; not that it will happen this way, but it certainly is more feasible.

by **algae888** Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z EURO OP=GORGEOUSSSSSSSSSSS RUN.......How I wish this was Monday morning ahahaha I will say, though, notice the lack of the binary mid-level lows. In my opinion, this is much more reasonable than the previous run; not that it will happen this way, but it certainly is more feasible.

rb it is slower than other models. is this what you were saying in previous post that you wanted to see happen.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:02 pm

Yes, the fact that it is slower means that it is able to close off later, which also means that 1) it's further south, which puts our region in a more dynamic area of ascent. Secondly, with it being slower, the coastal is able to deepen more in response to the sharpening trough and reverse the warm air advection from the northern branch into more of a cold air damming event with the turning of the winds from the N/NNE. Then, when H5 finally DOES close off, the coastal rapidly deepens and draws in even colder air behind it. This run would likely dry-slot the city/Long Island, though.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:07 pm

I gotta be honest, I'm not wildly crazy about the euro or CMC at 12z. If this low goes OVER NYC, here in the city will be tranquil, mild, with little rain and light winds. Lol

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:38 pm

12z EURO

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

Stalls over the area.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:12 pm

Looks like quite bit precip and high winds for city for a while. Whether or nor any snow to be determined. Nw has a good shot and possibly even just north of city.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:42 pm

Soul looking at Franks posts looks like beginning major precip for NYC area and wow talk about high wind gusts. Remember it has to come through first and even then I do not think it will be like a eye of a hurricane but we could get a dry slot but the duration if as modeled we will get prolonged precip.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 Ecmwf_14

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 Ecmwf_14

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:52 pm

According to that map I have a mild NW wind while eastern LI could have strong winds with a SE flow, obviously people furthest to the NW are in best position for snow, im pretty low in elevation so prob rain but oh well.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:06 pm

Yep general 40-60mph gusts depending on your location and looks warm for coast but still could change, I do not think you have to thrown in the towel yet NJ. This storm this weekend has to pass first and we see how strong it is.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:51 pm

pton going with the cranking CCB idea with everyone changing to snow with significant accumulations, especially north and west

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT
THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW
TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS
AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT
COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:52 pm

amugs wrote:Upton going with the cranking CCB idea with everyone changing to snow with significant accumulations, especially north and west
HOLY SMOKES BY UPTON AT THIS POINT IN TIME -

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT
THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW
TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS
AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT
COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:54 pm

Sweet mugs sounds like a hum dinger and damn that's long!

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:02 pm

Had to add the excited faces lol

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:32 pm

amugs wrote:
amugs wrote:Upton going with the cranking CCB idea with everyone changing to snow with significant accumulations, especially north and west
HOLY SMOKES BY UPTON AT THIS POINT IN TIME -

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT
THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW
TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS
AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT
COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

Wellllll, not really lol. They are saying mix in NYC for changeover with 'light snow'. This will be a far north and and west biggie IMO.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:36 pm

15z SREFs, in the long range so take it FWIW but a good look compared to the NAM.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 F8710

by **amugs** Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:37 pm

Soul the city metro and east are not in the game along with south of NYC sorry but north and west 20-25 miles plus away will do good IMO

You folk in these areas will get a deluge unless something changes with the HP, strength of lp or more importantly track of the slp.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:55 pm

What about about southern westchester mugs? Any possibility of frozen precip?

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What about about southern westchester mugs? Any possibility of frozen precip?

There's no way to know exactly where what who yet my friend. This is a crazy complex phasing setup and none of the models agree 4 days out.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:02 pm

Yeah soul cmc and euro are most consistent though

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:34 pm

Northern westchester (10 miles north of me) has this HWO:

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
424 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:00 pm

Busy day for me. Will update the storm later tonight. Hopefully you can get an idea of possible impacts of the storm by reading my blog. But as of now heavy rains and wind seems to be the biggest impacts

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:02 pm

Accuwx has a interesting map, hey Al, we may just be on the cusp of snow.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 Accuma10

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