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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:50 pm

The ensembles close off too late, which is why only northern New England get snow. However, there is a portion (maybe about 25% or so?) that close off in the opportune window. We will have to see if we can gain support for that cluster over the next several runs, specifically tomorrow and Sunday.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:07 pm

MT HOLLY just tweeted possible coastal storm Mon-Wed, rain and wind main impacts, poss. snow in the poconos.
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:31 pm

euro similar to cmc however much colder and a day later.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 F120
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:48 pm

12z EURO OP=GORGEOUSSSSSSSSSSS RUN.......How I wish this was Monday morning ahahaha I will say, though, notice the lack of the binary mid-level lows. In my opinion, this is much more reasonable than the previous run; not that it will happen this way, but it certainly is more feasible.

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:53 pm

@rb924119 wrote:12z EURO OP=GORGEOUSSSSSSSSSSS RUN.......How I wish this was Monday morning ahahaha I will say, though, notice the lack of the binary mid-level lows. In my opinion, this is much more reasonable than the previous run; not that it will happen this way, but it certainly is more feasible.
rb it is slower than other models. is this what you were saying in previous post that you wanted to see happen.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:02 pm

Yes, the fact that it is slower means that it is able to close off later, which also means that 1)  it's further south, which puts our region in a more dynamic area of ascent. Secondly, with it being slower, the coastal is able to deepen more in response to the sharpening trough and reverse the warm air advection from the northern branch into more of a cold air damming event with the turning of the winds from the N/NNE. Then, when H5 finally DOES close off, the coastal rapidly deepens and draws in even colder air behind it. This run would likely dry-slot the city/Long Island, though.


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:12 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:07 pm

I gotta be honest, I'm not wildly crazy about the euro or CMC at 12z. If this low goes OVER NYC, here in the city will be tranquil, mild, with little rain and light winds. Lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:38 pm

12z EURO

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

Stalls over the area.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:12 pm

Looks like quite bit precip and high winds for city for a while. Whether or nor any snow to be determined. Nw has a good shot and possibly even just north of city.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:42 pm

Soul looking at Franks posts looks like beginning major precip for NYC area and wow talk about high wind gusts. Remember it has to come through first and even then I do not think it will be like a eye of a hurricane but we could get a dry slot but the duration if as modeled we will get prolonged precip.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 Ecmwf_14
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:52 pm

According to that map I have a mild NW wind while eastern LI could have strong winds with a SE flow, obviously people furthest to the NW are in best position for snow, im pretty low in elevation so prob rain but oh well.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:06 pm

Yep general 40-60mph gusts depending on your location and looks warm for coast but still could change, I do not think you have to thrown in the towel yet NJ. This storm this weekend has to pass first and we see how strong it is.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:51 pm

pton going with the cranking CCB idea with everyone changing to snow with significant accumulations, especially north and west

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT
THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN
...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW
TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING..
.WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS
AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT
COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:52 pm

@amugs wrote:Upton going with the cranking CCB idea with everyone changing to snow with significant accumulations, especially north and west
HOLY SMOKES BY UPTON AT THIS POINT IN TIME - affraid Shocked


IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT
THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN
...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW
TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING..
.WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS
AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT
COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:54 pm

Sweet mugs sounds like a hum dinger and damn that's long!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:02 pm

Had to add the excited faces lol
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:32 pm

@amugs wrote:
@amugs wrote:Upton going with the cranking CCB idea with everyone changing to snow with significant accumulations, especially north and west
HOLY SMOKES BY UPTON AT THIS POINT IN TIME -  affraid  Shocked  


IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT
THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN
...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING
WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW
TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING..
.WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO...COASTAL SECTIONS
AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN... BUT THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT
COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

Wellllll, not really lol. They are saying mix in NYC for changeover with 'light snow'. This will be a far north and and west biggie IMO.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:36 pm

15z SREFs, in the long range so take it FWIW but a good look compared to the NAM.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 F8710
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:37 pm

Soul the city metro and east are not in the game along with south of NYC sorry but north and west 20-25 miles plus away will do good IMO

You folk in these areas will get a deluge unless something changes with the HP, strength of lp or more importantly track of the slp.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:55 pm

What about about southern westchester mugs? Any possibility of frozen precip?
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What about about southern westchester mugs? Any possibility of frozen precip?


There's no way to know exactly where what who yet my friend. This is a crazy complex phasing setup and none of the models agree 4 days out.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:02 pm

Yeah soul cmc and euro are most consistent though
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:34 pm

Northern westchester (10 miles north of me) has this HWO:

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
424 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:00 pm

Busy day for me. Will update the storm later tonight. Hopefully you can get an idea of possible impacts of the storm by reading my blog. But as of now heavy rains and wind seems to be the biggest impacts

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:02 pm

Accuwx has a interesting map, hey Al, we may just be on the cusp of snow.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 4 Accuma10
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