NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

+28
sabamfa
cooladi
crippo84
Aiosamoney21
LB3147
SoulSingMG
leimatt95
Dunnzoo
NjWeatherGuy
Sunflowers138
HectorO
Snow88
essexcountypete
Dtone
aiannone
mako460
sroc4
nancy-j-s
CPcantmeasuresnow
skinsfan1177
amugs
rb924119
HeresL
jmanley32
Quietace
algae888
Math23x7
Frank_Wx
32 posters

Page 6 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:21 pm

soul up here in yonkers, it got windy up to about 20mph or so for about an hour and that was it. there was no need for a wind advisory and yet it is still in effect.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by HeresL Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:06 pm

TWC is saying 1-3 inches of snow for West Milford tomorrow. What are all of your thoughts on that?
HeresL
HeresL

Posts : 122
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-20
Location : West Milford, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:18 pm

@HeresL wrote:TWC is saying 1-3 inches of snow for West Milford tomorrow. What are all of your thoughts on that?

Its possible but its tough to say, its really gonna be a nowcast and we need to see if the storm doed indeed retrograde as modeled and throw precio back into the region when the cold air is here tomorrow. If so, we could pick up some snow but i would just have to say for the greater area of N half of NJ C-4" possible high voliatility and maybe a coating possible along the immediate coast.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Guest Tue Dec 09, 2014 7:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:On my phone...storm seems to be done? Impressive wind reports on Long Island. Now let's see what part 2 brings tonight into tomorrow

I NEED!!!! a Frank snow map for part 2 beginning tomorrow thru Thursday. Hoping for a couple of inches here on LI to break the doldrums. WHAT DO YOU THINK BUDDY???

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:29 pm

Well there is a massive dry slot heading towards LSC, so it seems like we are going to bust way low.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:47 pm

We have an inch and were forecast to get 6-10"
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:48 pm

So as you can see the surface LP is currently just east of LI modeled at around 998mb but the deformation band has set up way N and W of the surface LP just NW of the Albany area.  Precip shield is also expanding in NEPA down into the DelMarVa
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Pmsl12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Hfd_None_anim

The reason for this is that the deformation band sets up shop to the NW of the 850mb and 700mb closed circulation.  If I am not mistaken if those levels of the atmosphere were open the precip would be much further towards the coast right now.  Here is the 850mb and 700mb closed Low position respectively.  Notice they are not quite vertically stacked but rather each successive layer in the atmosphere, from surface to 850mb to 700mb, the closed circulation centers are layered from E/SE to W/NW.  Notice where the def band is with respect to the 700mb low (NW Quadrant)
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 850mb
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 700mb

Now the million dollar question is when or if the 500mb layer closes off.  Here is the current analysis at 500mb
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 500mb

Notice this little area of convection firing up around the Va/NC border.  Here is the link for the loop:
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 <a href=12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Dec_9_10" />
This could be an indication that 500mb is trying to close off.  If it does it should start to tug at the system and begin all sorts of craziness to the track that the Euro has been showing over the last few days.  Def a now cast for crashing 850's and precip (notice in the image above the slow movement of the 0*C line is headed towards the coast again.) going into Wed and wed night

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by LB3147 Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:55 pm

sroc great heads up.....wuts ur take? cud snowweenies be looking at sumthing similar the euro was showing a couple of days ago and maybe NYC/coast gets sum unexpected snow accumulations?

LB3147

Posts : 31
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-11-11

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:05 pm

scott what about that little wrinkle over south Dakota. how will it interact and effect 500mb and surface? steve d mention it this morning but didn't elaborate on it to much
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5227
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:46 pm

Did anyone see snow accumulations or did mid-layers stay too warm?

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:52 pm

1.25" total here, 40° and light winds

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by essexcountypete Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:54 pm

I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 590
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:56 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

This storm was a nightmare for every forecaster known to man. Seriously.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:04 pm

@LB3147 wrote:sroc great heads up.....wuts ur take?  cud snowweenies be looking at sumthing similar the euro was showing a couple of days ago and maybe NYC/coast gets sum unexpected snow accumulations?

Honestly I have no idea how it all shakes out.  This is an extremely complex set up and I am relying on observations at this point.  I def think that areas along the NJ Coast, NYC and western LI have a chance to see some light accum, but I think its more isolated vs widespread from Wed afternoon into the evening.  We are just going to have to watch closely.  

@ Al.  Im not sure what to make of that little area that is trying to close off at 500mb over S Dakota.  We will see if it has any influence at all.  There is so much going on at all levels of the atmosphere that it goes beyond my level of expertise.  Like I said before I am looking at current observations and trying to predict how it shakes out.  Watch the 850mb freezing line over the next 12 hrs; watch to see if the 500mb closes off.  and watch to see what happens to the tracks of the closed circulations from the surface to 700mb if it does and hence where I believe unexpected bands of precip will form(squalls) in a relatively short periods of time.  A true nowcast!
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 500mb

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:08 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

That's awesome! Makes me feel better for saying I have no clue..lol

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:11 pm

BTW the 0*C Line is already down to NYC at 850mb
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 850mb_sf

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6974
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by amugs Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:14 pm

AFD from NWS

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html

Cliff notes saying dusting/ snow showers coastal plain, NYC
N and W 2-4"

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:18 pm

RGEM..heads up Alex in VT

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Post-42-0-52702500-1418181272

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Post-42-0-20788600-1418181279

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:18 pm

Even snow for areas just north and west of NYC

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by essexcountypete Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

That's awesome!  Makes me feel better for saying I have no clue..lol

Yeah, nice to know that with all the knowledge even the experts can always make sense of it all, and I give them credit for admitting it. As Frank said, this one was tough.
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 590
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:34 pm

00z GFS still popping some snow showers in NW NJ and NEPA tomorrow afternoon

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS still popping some snow showers in NW NJ and NEPA tomorrow afternoon

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

Rotates down and chances for snow showers thru about hr 54 if im reading the GFS right.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:52 pm

Yea, you're right. Probably not much accumulations for us though. Areas to our north have a cold surface

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 09, 2014 11:31 pm

Yeah this was certainly interesting; a GREAT learning experience though. When this happens again, I can say that I'll be prepared to give the warm air advection much more credit, and weigh it much more heavily than the vertical velocities and precipitation rates. As we just had demonstrated for us today, those ascent rates cannot overcome strong low level WAA in a marginal temperature profile, especially when the closed lows are either directly overhead or just east of the region. Ok Mother Nature, you may be up 1-0 on this one, but I think I can say with certainty, we'll get ya back :p

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 09, 2014 11:36 pm

Idk if you guys would be interested, and it would probably take me a little to get it out, but for those of us who would like to see why everybody was so warm, I could probably put together a small case study concerning just the evolution of the temperature profile in the Northeast; though I think most (if not all) of us understand what happened. Let me know. Btw, has anybody tried accessing the case study I put up for the Feb. 2010 blizzard? Can you get to it, or should I try putting it up again? Let me know about both of these, and if anybody would be interested. Thanks, and have a great night all!!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum