12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

bah, sounds like nada for us al.

Winds have REALLY underperformed for this storm here in the city, per usual lately. It was windier Sat late night/early Sun am post the rain.

soul up here in yonkers, it got windy up to about 20mph or so for about an hour and that was it. there was no need for a wind advisory and yet it is still in effect.

TWC is saying 1-3 inches of snow for West Milford tomorrow. What are all of your thoughts on that?

HeresL wrote:TWC is saying 1-3 inches of snow for West Milford tomorrow. What are all of your thoughts on that?

Its possible but its tough to say, its really gonna be a nowcast and we need to see if the storm doed indeed retrograde as modeled and throw precio back into the region when the cold air is here tomorrow. If so, we could pick up some snow but i would just have to say for the greater area of N half of NJ C-4" possible high voliatility and maybe a coating possible along the immediate coast.

Frank_Wx wrote:On my phone...storm seems to be done? Impressive wind reports on Long Island. Now let's see what part 2 brings tonight into tomorrow

I NEED!!!! a Frank snow map for part 2 beginning tomorrow thru Thursday. Hoping for a couple of inches here on LI to break the doldrums. WHAT DO YOU THINK BUDDY???

Well there is a massive dry slot heading towards LSC, so it seems like we are going to bust way low.

We have an inch and were forecast to get 6-10"

So as you can see the surface LP is currently just east of LI modeled at around 998mb but the deformation band has set up way N and W of the surface LP just NW of the Albany area.  Precip shield is also expanding in NEPA down into the DelMarVa


The reason for this is that the deformation band sets up shop to the NW of the 850mb and 700mb closed circulation.  If I am not mistaken if those levels of the atmosphere were open the precip would be much further towards the coast right now.  Here is the 850mb and 700mb closed Low position respectively.  Notice they are not quite vertically stacked but rather each successive layer in the atmosphere, from surface to 850mb to 700mb, the closed circulation centers are layered from E/SE to W/NW.  Notice where the def band is with respect to the 700mb low (NW Quadrant)



Now the million dollar question is when or if the 500mb layer closes off.  Here is the current analysis at 500mb


Notice this little area of convection firing up around the Va/NC border.  Here is the link for the loop:
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html
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This could be an indication that 500mb is trying to close off.  If it does it should start to tug at the system and begin all sorts of craziness to the track that the Euro has been showing over the last few days.  Def a now cast for crashing 850's and precip (notice in the image above the slow movement of the 0*C line is headed towards the coast again.) going into Wed and wed night

sroc great heads up.....wuts ur take? cud snowweenies be looking at sumthing similar the euro was showing a couple of days ago and maybe NYC/coast gets sum unexpected snow accumulations?

scott what about that little wrinkle over south Dakota. how will it interact and effect 500mb and surface? steve d mention it this morning but didn't elaborate on it to much

Did anyone see snow accumulations or did mid-layers stay too warm?

1.25" total here, 40° and light winds

I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

essexcountypete wrote:I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

This storm was a nightmare for every forecaster known to man. Seriously.

LB3147 wrote:sroc great heads up.....wuts ur take?  cud snowweenies be looking at sumthing similar the euro was showing a couple of days ago and maybe NYC/coast gets sum unexpected snow accumulations?

Honestly I have no idea how it all shakes out.  This is an extremely complex set up and I am relying on observations at this point.  I def think that areas along the NJ Coast, NYC and western LI have a chance to see some light accum, but I think its more isolated vs widespread from Wed afternoon into the evening.  We are just going to have to watch closely.  

@ Al.  Im not sure what to make of that little area that is trying to close off at 500mb over S Dakota.  We will see if it has any influence at all.  There is so much going on at all levels of the atmosphere that it goes beyond my level of expertise.  Like I said before I am looking at current observations and trying to predict how it shakes out.  Watch the 850mb freezing line over the next 12 hrs; watch to see if the 500mb closes off.  and watch to see what happens to the tracks of the closed circulations from the surface to 700mb if it does and hence where I believe unexpected bands of precip will form(squalls) in a relatively short periods of time.  A true nowcast!

essexcountypete wrote:I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

That's awesome! Makes me feel better for saying I have no clue..lol

BTW the 0*C Line is already down to NYC at 850mb

AFD from NWS

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html

Cliff notes saying dusting/ snow showers coastal plain, NYC
N and W 2-4"

RGEM..heads up Alex in VT

Even snow for areas just north and west of NYC

sroc4 wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:I think Mt Holly sums it up well...
DON`T HAVE REALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT FORM OF PRECIP OR WHERE IT MAY OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

That's awesome!  Makes me feel better for saying I have no clue..lol

Yeah, nice to know that with all the knowledge even the experts can always make sense of it all, and I give them credit for admitting it. As Frank said, this one was tough.

00z GFS still popping some snow showers in NW NJ and NEPA tomorrow afternoon

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS still popping some snow showers in NW NJ and NEPA tomorrow afternoon

Rotates down and chances for snow showers thru about hr 54 if im reading the GFS right.

Yea, you're right. Probably not much accumulations for us though. Areas to our north have a cold surface

Yeah this was certainly interesting; a GREAT learning experience though. When this happens again, I can say that I'll be prepared to give the warm air advection much more credit, and weigh it much more heavily than the vertical velocities and precipitation rates. As we just had demonstrated for us today, those ascent rates cannot overcome strong low level WAA in a marginal temperature profile, especially when the closed lows are either directly overhead or just east of the region. Ok Mother Nature, you may be up 1-0 on this one, but I think I can say with certainty, we'll get ya back :p

Idk if you guys would be interested, and it would probably take me a little to get it out, but for those of us who would like to see why everybody was so warm, I could probably put together a small case study concerning just the evolution of the temperature profile in the Northeast; though I think most (if not all) of us understand what happened. Let me know. Btw, has anybody tried accessing the case study I put up for the Feb. 2010 blizzard? Can you get to it, or should I try putting it up again? Let me know about both of these, and if anybody would be interested. Thanks, and have a great night all!!!!