Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:38 am

Well, while we wait for the models to figure out this weekend, looks like bitter cold comes in after Christmas, NYE is going to be in the teens in Times Square. Glad I stay home with my munchies and adult beverages, oh and Dick Clark's Rockin' Eve!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:03 am

The period between Xmas and New Years continues to be an interesting one. This is when I think we'll officially be in our winter pattern. Keep in mind I've been saying all along the Dec. 20th storm is coming in a transition time. That storm, as well as another one around X-Mas eve, will help Jumpstart the pattern I'm expecting to dominate for most of the winter.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:44 pm

EURO still showing a large storm around X-mas Eve. Signal is there.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO still showing a large storm around X-mas Eve. Signal is there.

It's a cutter. We need that pattern change to have these storms produce good snows down to the coast. Until that happens, I fear we will have continued heartbreaks with these systems.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:53 pm

I thought in the long range models where showing the trough in the east and ridge out west and the signal where going in the right direction.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:07 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I thought in the long range models where showing the trough in the east and ridge out west and the signal where going in the right direction.

They are, but the transition period (18th-24th) has 2 storms that can go either way.

Anything after the 25th I think has a good chance of bring white than wet.

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I thought in the long range models where showing the trough in the east and ridge out west and the signal where going in the right direction.

They are, but the transition period (18th-24th) has 2 storms that can go either way.

Anything after the 25th I think has a good chance of bring white than wet.

That sounds good I hope we get into a white pattern

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:41 pm

I think I mentioned in here last week that we have gone through 2 failed SSWE. I also brought it up in my latest blog. If we look ahead to our next SSWE, I think this one finally has a chance to come to fruition by the end of this month. The 18z GFS, from 10 mb to 70 mb, is showing a classic split of the PV. I said in my blog that the Stratosphere is not letting up until a successful SSWE occurs. All the analogs that ive seen, especially the ones from my winter outlook, had a SSWE occur in late Decembee to mid January. The state of the SAI and QBO support one, and once it does, we could be in for quite a ride.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 1503353_852444218140672_1742705486652640895_n

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 1503353_852444218140672_1742705486652640895_n

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:52 pm

Ahh the long range, gotta love it, did you see the GFS today?

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Post-210

Gotta love these fantasy storms.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:00 pm

Yea, haha worth monitoring

by **amugs** Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think I mentioned in here last week that we have gone through 2 failed SSWE. I also brought it up in my latest blog. If we look ahead to our next SSWE, I think this one finally has a chance to come to fruition by the end of this month. The 18z GFS, from 10 mb to 70 mb, is showing a classic split of the PV. I said in my blog that the Stratosphere is not letting up until a successful SSWE occurs. All the analogs that ive seen, especially the ones from my winter outlook, had a SSWE occur in late Decembee to mid January. The state of the SAI and QBO support one, and once it does, we could be in for quite a ride.

Here at the 70 mb level too

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Post-90-0-34501500-1418770418

by **amugs** Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:38 pm

From Judah Cohen great news about the SSW, AO and NAO state going forward

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Arctic-oscillation

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:01 pm

Pretty complex stuff Mugs.

It makes me long for the days where Tex Antoine would draw a Big L in the Gulf of Mexico and I'd get all excited thinking it was gonna take a run up the east coast which of course in my limited thinking meant a big snow storm. Ignorance is sometimes bliss.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:04 am

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_47

At least the GEFS maintain a strong, favorable signal post Xmas

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:13 am

00z CMC has a low southeast of the BM on Xmas

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 GZ_D5_PN_192_0000

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:10 am

The X Mas system looks like it will be one heck of a system. To bad it has heavy rain for most if not all of us written all over it. Obv a long way to go. The good news is that it looks like it is going to act as one heck of a block going forward and hopefully pump heights into Greenland.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:27 am

sroc not to mention a possible damaging wind event on Euro and GFS, CMC has some nutty 971 hurricane looking thingy OTS, lol CMC. But Euro has a prolonged 18-24 hour period from the GL storm and system over us with a very tight pressure gradient pushing winds in excess of 70mph in some spots, overdone, well like last time if that is the case sure is. But its two big strong LP systems crashing into each other is what it looks like with NYC area smashed in between. I only have to travel on 27th so as long as that day is good I am fine with whateverr happens, well we could do without 70mph winds and rain, I might take 70mph winds and snow though! but looks to be torching.

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:27 am

STJ starting to look really robust:

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Wv-animated

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Rb-animated

by **amugs** Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Pretty complex stuff Mugs.

It makes me long for the days where Tex Antoine would draw a Big L in the Gulf of Mexico and I'd get all excited thinking it was gonna take a run up the east coast which of course in my limited thinking meant a big snow storm. Ignorance is sometimes bliss.

Oh Tex what a great met and I to what get all excited when he did that - I know and then he would say after he drew it track up the coast 'folks this is going to be a rainmaker" POOOOOF!!!

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:06 am

I know Frank Locked the Sunday storm thread but I have a hunch we will be reopening it by tomorrow morning. The system that will interact with the STJ looks very robust(the swirl headed S towards NW Cali. Notice the blue to the east and the black to the west side of it. If it comes ashore today and tonight a cont to be strong the models will adjust and we will see a stronger interaction along the EC. In theory of course. Again the timing is everything. My point is its not looking good on models, but current observations say give it till tomorrow 12z to lay it to rest officially. For the record I am still not looking at a blockbuster, but a colder minor snowy soln still has a chance.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:11 am

sroc4 wrote:I know Frank Locked the Sunday storm thread but I have a hunch we will be reopening it by tomorrow morning. The system that will interact with the STJ looks very robust(the swirl headed S towards NW Cali. Notice the blue to the east and the black to the west side of it. If it comes ashore today and tonight a cont to be strong the models will adjust and we will see a stronger interaction along the EC. In theory of course. Again the timing is everything. My point is its not looking good on models, but current observations say give it till tomorrow 12z to lay it to rest officially. For the record I am still not looking at a blockbuster, but a colder minor snowy soln still has a chance.

Doc - I said this in Banter Thread wait until tomorrow to put this to rest - looking for minor event 1-3" possibly - must be the Itralian in both of us??

Check this out - two huge deep lows in the PAC - they are going to effect us one way or the other!

I am calling for a MECS/HECS Jan 7-10th - 1996 redux or comparable - these are the storms that may be it using the SOJ (Sea of Japan) theory 16-21 days to affect the east coast -more success in a nino year from some research I have read - storm wise and hey my Bearing Sea Rule call looks to happen as well for xmas timeframe bounce

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Index

by **Snow88** Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:34 am

Imagine if the Christmas cutter becomes a coastal storm. Wowza.

by **sroc4** Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:42 am

Snow88 wrote:Imagine if the Christmas cutter becomes a coastal storm. Wowza.

If the pre Xmas storm is stronger then what everyone thinks it just might. Could you imagine a 968mb low at the BM on Xmas eve? How would Santa make it in one night?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:08 am

Really liking the look of the ECM Ens in the long range. Cross polar flow, -EPO/-NAO/-AO more of a neutral look with the PNA but we will still be able to work with this.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Eps_z500a_noram_45

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 5 Eps_z500a_noram_45

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:17 am

Is there a chance that the xmas storm moves that far east and becomes a coastal, it kinda confuses me on surface models as it looks like a drawn out bunch of LP all lumped together.

by tigernumba1 Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:19 am

The polar jet stream looks like its really going to deepen around christmas time, whereas its more flat for this weekends storm. Won't that help in bringing enough cold air to support snow?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:Is there a chance that the xmas storm moves that far east and becomes a coastal, it kinda confuses me on surface models as it looks like a drawn out bunch of LP all lumped together.

Doubt it. Transition storms tend not to favor the east coast. Right now my forecast for Xmas eve is rain. But worth watching for sure just because of the magnitude of the storm and of course the day its expected to come.

tigernumba1 wrote:The polar jet stream looks like its really going to deepen around christmas time, whereas its more flat for this weekends storm. Won't that help in bringing enough cold air to support snow?

Oh yea. The period after Xmas looks really good. In the Dec. 20th-Jan. 10th time frame I've been preaching since Thanksgiving, it's clear Dec. 20th-24th is the transition period to our winter pattern and Dec. 25th and beyond we should be ready to rock

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