Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[HectorO]

I wonder what the pattern was going into the 1995-1996 killer winter we had here.There was snowpack from late-November to early April.Seems to me you want the favorable pattern locked in by late November and not have to keep pushing it further and further down the line.

Exactly what I've been saying since I joined this forum.  In a nutshell screw science and models.  If we get cold and snow early it sets the stage and we get future storms and corresponding weather.  The snowcover lowers temps and storms follow the same path.  We haven't had that and I would Respectfully point out that many forecasts of upcoming storms and cold potential keep busting and being delayed.  docstox12 put my feelings into words perfectly!!

Talking about a pattern lock not really early snow. Early snow has been a curse for us over the past few decades. 2011 is an example. I think we were all spoiled by 08/09, 09/10 and 10/11. Those were 3 great years. I think this winter will resemble 11/12 but not as mild or snowless.

[GreyBeard]

Wow,just pop my head in here on occasion to get the skuttlebut. Haven't been in a while and boy how things have changed. Looks more like Easter weather on Christmas Eve with rain and temps approaching 60.

Don't see any more posts on pattern changes that Frank was hyping and his blog describing why that was going to occur has mysteriously disappeared.(either that or I can't find it).
Guys are saying wait until mid January or even February 'til things start happening.We shall see.

As I said I'm more of an observer here than a poster, but that's the vibe I'm getting. I'm also not it the best of moods as I took a fall in the shower Monday night and fractured rib #6 in the back. It hurts just to breathe. Wouldn't wish this on anybody,but on the up side, I've got more time to study the board as I recuperate. Sorry for the rant, regards and best wishes to all.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow,just pop my head in here on occasion to get the skuttlebut. Haven't been in a while and boy how things have changed. Looks more like Easter weather on Christmas Eve with rain and temps approaching 60.

Don't see any more posts on pattern changes that Frank was hyping and his blog describing why that was going to occur has mysteriously disappeared.(either that or I can't find it).
Guys are saying wait until mid January or even February 'til things start happening.We shall see.

As I said I'm more of an observer here than a poster, but that's the vibe I'm getting. I'm also not it the best of moods as I took a fall in the shower Monday night and fractured rib #6 in the back. It hurts just to breathe. Wouldn't wish this on anybody,but  on the up side, I've got more time to study the board as I recuperate. Sorry for the rant, regards and best wishes to all.

The blog is in the locked thread, but I'll post it here again. If you read it carefully, I said the 20th-24th would be a transition period (wild card storm being on thr 20th but obviously that's not happening). 25th and on is when I expect us to get in a better pattern. And just because the long range models say otherwise, does not mean I'm agreeing with it. 

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/12/december-20th-21st-coastal-storm.html

[Frank_Wx]

I wonder what the pattern was going into the 1995-1996 killer winter we had here.There was snowpack from late-November to early April.Seems to me you want the favorable pattern locked in by late November and not have to keep pushing it further and further down the line.

Exactly what I've been saying since I joined this forum.  In a nutshell screw science and models.  If we get cold and snow early it sets the stage and we get future storms and corresponding weather.  The snowcover lowers temps and storms follow the same path.  We haven't had that and I would Respectfully point out that many forecasts of upcoming storms and cold potential keep busting and being delayed.  docstox12 put my feelings into words perfectly!!

Where exactly do you think we live? This is the NYC Metro area not Canada. You're right about the snow cover but that mainly applies to us between January and February. Plus, the most important regions to have snow cover are western Canada because as troughs come down the air temperature does not moderate as much.

[GreyBeard]

Thanks for the blog link, Frank. Just rustling your feathers a little bit, all in fun

[Frank_Wx]

There's guidance that shows a favorable pattern after Xmas, such as the 6z Gefs, and others that do not such as the Euro. The key will be the -NAO and where it sets up and that is dependent on where the strong Xmas Eve storm tracks to once it crosses our latitude. The models are struggling with its track and intensity, hence the long range has become volatile and inconsistent.

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks for the blog link, Frank. Just rustling your feathers a little bit, all in fun

No worries, people are nervously reacting all across the weather community not just here. Just like any storm, models will lose it then bring it back. I think that's the case here as well. And trust me, if by Xmas Eve or even as early as Monday of next week and the models still are showing a delay then I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. 

Another thing to keep I thr back of your minds is the Stratosphere continues to warm and those effects usually have a 2-week lag time.

[amugs]

This is encouraging. In the LR models struggle with all the change happening in the atmosphere - it is not clear cut as some would like it to be but this is good IMO - let that cutter cut big time and it will dislodge the cold air and cause the cross polar flow (-AO) and build the heights over greenland for a nice block and the EPO going neg all helps - I think the SE ridge is over done but we shall see

[Frank_Wx]

GFS at 10 mb level in the stratosphere is splitting the PV still. This would mean much colder than normal weather sometime first week of January

[amugs]

Frank here is the temp departure due to the pv splitting



Also notice the + PNA in the west with this as the temps roar out there - f them I say and give me the cold with an active STJ

Its taking shape

[amugs]

A muted/neutral PNA for the the later part of Dec - better than a -PNA .

The -EPO, -NAO and - AO can help overcome this if  need be

[Guest]

Wow,just pop my head in here on occasion to get the skuttlebut. Haven't been in a while and boy how things have changed. Looks more like Easter weather on Christmas Eve with rain and temps approaching 60.

Don't see any more posts on pattern changes that Frank was hyping and his blog describing why that was going to occur has mysteriously disappeared.(either that or I can't find it).
Guys are saying wait until mid January or even February 'til things start happening.We shall see.

As I said I'm more of an observer here than a poster, but that's the vibe I'm getting. I'm also not it the best of moods as I took a fall in the shower Monday night and fractured rib #6 in the back. It hurts just to breathe. Wouldn't wish this on anybody,but  on the up side, I've got more time to study the board as I recuperate. Sorry for the rant, regards and best wishes to all.

Not true. Frank has actually been really honest and accurate in his forecasts. IMO he's pretty good at what he does.

[amugs]

Ensembles agree on the change here - a good sign

[jmanley32]

I noticed xmas eve system has been all over the place since santabomb hyper started, lol. Its def go be some time before we know how strong it will be and where it goes. It could cause us major problems though with mainly prolonged period of wind looking somewhat likelyas that has not left the model runs just in terms of intensity is question.

[jmanley32]

Frank post good luck today lol, your done! Now we can both relax for a bit, are you graduating or still have semesters left? I have one left ugg.

[jmanley32]

Euro has both 24/25 and 27/28 as cutters, no good.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank post good luck today lol, your done!  Now we can both relax for a bit, are you graduating or still have semesters left? I have one left ugg.  

I'M SO DONE JMAN JUST GOT OUT OF THE EXAM!!!!! Praise Mary, Joseph, Jesus for getting me through college. 

Start work Jan 5th 

And the long range is flip flopping again. Go figure.

[jmanley32]

Yopu called a system on 27th, pretty good my man. I still see significant potential for major winds with both events but I'll wait for your official call on it even though weather sites are calling for it on 24/25th. Havent bothered to look at 26/27th although if that cutter happens I see same scenario, would that mean no good winter pattern setup and write it off or do will still have hope? Personally I would love to have a very windy xmas sunny and out measuring readings with my anemometer lol, yeah im selfish as I know a windstorm is not a good thing in most peoples books and I understand why, its just something that has amazed me since I was little and although I know its dangerous and damaging it still is exilerating for me. I dunno maybe I have some Jim Cantore in me, I'd do the 155mph wind tunnel lol

[sroc4]

Frank post good luck today lol, your done!  Now we can both relax for a bit, are you graduating or still have semesters left? I have one left ugg.  

I'M SO DONE JMAN JUST GOT OUT OF THE EXAM!!!!! Praise Mary, Joseph, Jesus for getting me through college. 

Start work Jan 5th 

And the long range is flip flopping again. Go figure.

Congrats Frank. That's a huge accomplishment. I remember my last final as well. What a huge wt lifted. Now comes the real world. The daily grind..lol. Head on over to Nonnas house and she if she will pour you a shot of some home made grappa. for your troubles.

[Frank_Wx]

Two things to watch:

1. The Xmas Eve to Xmas Day storm. I am really hoping the timing comes before Xmas. Right now models are split on whether on the timing of this storm and which day it comes on. My early forecast for this storm is 1.25-2.25 inches of rain with sustained winds between 20-25 mph with gusts on Xmas Day possibly getting into the 50's. Due to the potency of the upper level energy ejecting out of the Polar jet stream and phasing in with the STJ energy, this storm is likely to cut to our west. 

2. The Dec. 27th- Jan. 2nd time frame is worth watching. There could be 1 or 2 storms in this time period that I can see occurring. There's currently a train of cyclones in the Pacific that eventually have to make there way to the US west coast. Their remnant energy is then absorbed into the jet stream and works it's way through the U.S. Some models have the 27th storm cutting, others have it undercutting the block and approaching our area with plenty of cold air around. But let's focus on the Xmas Eve storm first because exactly where it tracks will be important to the evolution of the -NAO that develops.

[jmanley32]

Sounds like a decent forecast for the first system on xmas eve or day. Looks like strongest winds come xmas day, I could see them higher IF it really bombs out insanely like it had been the last several days but recent models have shown less of a impact on us, but its still not minor. The 18z GFS is horrible one cutter after another dear lord. Lucky its the 18z.

[skinsfan1177]

Are their other signs of the pattern changing such as the MJO and the signals seem to be correct

[sroc4]

Are their other signs of the pattern changing such as the MJO and the signals seem to be correct

MJO is not currently modeled to be in a favorable position any time soon.  But the MJO doesnt necessarily have to be perfect if other factors are present.  ie: -EPO, -NAO, weak to mode west based el nino, etc

[Frank_Wx]

Sounds like a decent forecast for the first system on xmas eve or day.  Looks like strongest winds come xmas day, I could see them higher IF it really bombs out insanely like it had been the last several days but recent models have shown less of a impact on us, but its still not minor.  The 18z GFS is horrible one cutter after another dear lord.  Lucky its the 18z.

Check out the upgraded GFS @ 18z

[Frank_Wx]

January 2015 analogs based on GWO plots
 

 
Source: Al Marinaro

[Artechmetals]

Hey Franks , congrats on finishing school !! Best of luck ! How's your confidence in the weather pattern change ? Are you still sticking by your original thoughts ? Again I think your forecasting knowledge is amazing

[Frank_Wx]

Hey Franks , congrats on finishing school !! Best of luck ! How's your confidence in the weather pattern change ? Are you still sticking by your original thoughts ? Again I think your forecasting knowledge is amazing

Since Thanksgiving I have been saying Dec. 20th - Jan. 10th. I then originally though Dec. 20th-24th would be a transition period, but the new transition period is now Dec. 20th-Dec. 26th. I feel by New Years we will be in a great pattern with a couple storm chances between Dec. 27th-Jan. 5th

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