Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Frank_Wx]

You can clearly see the phasing taking place on the CMC model in the Midwest when it comes to the storm early next week. Polar and southern jet meet up. It looks very likely the storm next week will cut to our west, bringing rain to our area. Some snow or wintry precip is possible at the start, especially north and west of NYC

[Artechmetals]

Hi Frank , why is this happening this season ? Seems like when everyone hypes up winter ( everyones been saying this winter will be snowy ) it turnes out to be a bust very depressing !

[algae888]

frank storm is now jan 3rd-4th. there looks to be some front end snow esp interior which could get several inches before change to ice then rain. here is nws disco this morning....

LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/CMC/GFS/UKMET AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOMEWHAT PHASED NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...AS STRONG PAC ENERGY DIGS THE JET STREAM
DOWN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. SOME SUBTLE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE...WITH MORE DIFFERENCE
IN STRENGTH BASED ON DEGREE OF PHASING. THIS REFLECTS IN SIMILAR
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

SBU CSTAR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATING THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY
LIES MORE SO WITH THE STRENGTH OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING...AND SECONDLY WITH SOUTHWESTERN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. A STRONGER PAC SHORTWAVE ULTIMATELY LEADING TO MORE
PHASING OF ENERGIES AND A STRONGER LOW.

WITH THAT SAID...MEAN SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATING PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY
INTO QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH WEAKER SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. ALL WHILE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY LEANING IN
THAT DIRECTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FORECAST TO ABOVE
THINKING.

THIS SCENARIO SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING
TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN (INTERIOR) AND RAIN(COAST)SAT NIGHT...BEFORE
PRECIP TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND GULF CONNECTION BRINGING IN PWATS OF
2 TO 3 STDS ABOVE NORMAL. SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR. WAA WOULD CHANGE ANY PRECIP TO LIQUID OVERNIGHT
SAT...BUT DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW...SURFACE COLD AIR
MAY BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT OF INTERIOR NW VALLEYS RESULTING IN SOME
ICING ISSUES.

[sroc4]

This is how it works during El Niño.

Not at all. This has been far from a Nino pattern. It's closer to La Nina

I thought La Niña is when we see more snow and El Niño is less? Forgive me, I was living in LA during the last El Niño (when they received more rain in one month than in like 50 years)...Constant mudslides, flooding, was nuts.

Typically we see bigger storms during El Niño and more lighter events during la nina.

True, but we have seen quite a few good La Nina events also. More recent was 10/11

Lets make something very clear WE ARE NOT IN A La Nina Pattern.  La nina is defined by cooler than normal Waters in the tropical Pac , which is NOT the case here.  Just like a mod to strong El Nino a mod to strong La Nina tends to be a strong or primary driver to the overall pattern.  That being said there is no questioning the fact that we have a weak El Nino in place, but clearly it has not been a major driver to the pattern; but rather a small part to the the sum of all the parts which has led to an anomalously cold Nov followed by a warm Dec. and the first 8-10 days are looking to be below normal temp wise. Here is a good post by Isotherm in another forum discussing some of the the El Nino analogues.    

"The 500mb composite for warmer than normal El Nino Januarys since 1975 denotes a strong +EPO / +AO / +NAO pattern with the mean ridge located over SE Canada:
" />

Progged pattern for the first 5 days of January at H5:
" />

Progged pattern for the Jan 5-10th period at H5:
" />

Temperature departures for the warm Nino year Januarys:
" />

Point being, the first 10 days of January don't appear to be following the warm "camp" of analogs for El Nino years, with the most notable difference being the polar opposite NPAC/AK EPO signature.



For El Nino's, the time of divergence among years tends to occur in January, that is, we're entering a very telling period in terms of the ultimate fate of the winter. Warm El Ninos tended to continue to blowtorch from December through much of January. Cold El Ninos like 1976, 2002, and 2009, stayed cold for most of the DJF period. Transition El Nino's like 2004, 1986 and 1987 featured a warm Dec and much colder January and February



So this winter will be showing its cards shortly, and at least for the next 10 days, it doesn't appear to be moving toward the wire to wire warmth analog camp."

[sroc4]

Of the years Isotherm has listed as transition analogues 2004-2005 has a similar analogue with relation to the MJO seen here.  The red line in the MJO in JAN.  The last week of Dec in 2004 it was in phase 3.  Looks somewhat familiar.                                                                    

 

Here is the stat line for snow fall totals for 2004-2005
2004-05 :  Dec 3.0  Jan 15.3  Feb 15.8   March 6.9   Total = 41.0

CP as far as your Dec indicator it is right on the cusp with 3".  Now I am sorry my friend but there are huge flaws in that statistic.  You must break down for me some of the other major pattern drivers, and more importantly deciding which of those factors or combinations of were responsible for driving the overall pattern during all the years that were under your Dec snow criteria vs above.  In addition we need to know the physical drivers that were responsible for the overall pattern during those years as well as the years that have bucked your trend (Ie: such as the state of the ENSO, MJO, EPO, AO, NAO, PDO, AMO, PNA, QBO, SOI, SST Pac/Atl Strat warming events, solar cycles, etc etc etc)

Until this is broken down for me as such this Dec prognosticator, esp for this year, has no statistical relevance to me.  My analogy to this prognostic indicator would be this:
A dog with Cushings disease is one characterized by an excessive amount of a steroidal hormone circulating in the blood called cortisol.  Cortisol is one of many stress hormones that goes up in the body when under stress.  (All of our cortisol levels have prob been slightly higher than normal up to this point).  One of the symptoms we see in dogs with cushings is minor tomod skin infections and thinning hair.  The owner will often bring the dog in because he/she has been chewing himself all over because of the infection.  The result of all this biting/chewing, and licking is almost always leading to a skin infection, sometimes minor, sometimes moderate.  The intensity of the biting and chewing is our Dec snow prognosticator index.  One can argue that its the biting and chewing and how much or little chewing is taking place is what leads to the skin infection most if not all of the time.  However if you dig deeper its actually the cortisol levels as well as other hormone levels that are also thrown off balance because of this anomalous level of cortisol.  The higher than normal cortisol levels leads to disruption in the hair follicle growth cyle as well as a dampening/weakening of the immune system.  As a result you have a dog that will sometimes develop an infection in his skin much easier than a dog without cushings disease.  So this infection in the skin which was driven by the hormone level imbalances has now induced an immune response in the skin which results in inflammatory mediators(chemicals) which cause the dog to be itchy.  Now he/she starts to bite at himself sometimes agressively sometimes not so much and makes the infection much worse and its snowballs from there.

So in reality with a dog with cushings it can be argued that the hormone levels are what drove the infection and the chewing was a result of it.  It just so happens that once there are inflammatory mediators inciting the itch the biting and chewing that ensues will invariably lead to worsening of the infection to the point where the owner takes notice. Not all dogs with cushings; however, come in with skin issues but many do.  Its the sum of all the other factors that will govern if a dog with cushings comes in with bad skin not if the dog bites or scratches himself.    


If you can show me multiple years with even half of the current drivers we have in place then maybe I buy into it for this year.  Until then I will continue to buy all of your winter stocks for pennies.

[skinsfan1177]

So let me understand something here janruary will not warm up or will it. Thought I read we will torch the month of jan or is it still up in the air I know the first week is cold but after I thought the warm up comes

[algae888]

So let me understand something here janruary will not warm up or will it. Thought I read we will torch the month of jan or is it still up in the air I know the first week is cold but after I thought the warm up comes

skins from what I have been hearing we will be below normal through jan 10th or so. then we should warm for a brief period to normal or above before heading back below to close out the month. I do not trust what will happen after jan. 10th but for now expect below normal temps. next week could end up well below normal. however this doesn't mean we will get any snow. that's always a crap shoot

[Guest]

You can clearly see the phasing taking place on the CMC model in the Midwest when it comes to the storm early next week. Polar and southern jet meet up. It looks very likely the storm next week will cut to our west, bringing rain to our area. Some snow or wintry precip is possible at the start, especially north and west of NYC

YES!! Awesome.

[sroc4]

So let me understand something here janruary will not warm up or will it. Thought I read we will torch the month of jan or is it still up in the air I know the first week is cold but after I thought the warm up comes

The post above is showing that of years past when El Niño years torch Jan they tend do so strait through dec into Jan. The post point out that the EPO is typically in the positive phase when Dec and Jan torches which is exactly the opposite of what we have now. So the point is most likely the warm up advertised after jan 10 will prob be less pronounced and shorter than currently advertised.

[Frank_Wx]

Doc the problem is we lose the -EPO signal or it displaces west near the Aleutians. Once the western ridge collapses, the Pac. Jet is going to flood the country with mild air. 


The 300+ hour maps are in the thread you started, but the process begins around the 9th and mild air probably reaches us by the 12th or so. Could this be trasnsient? Yea, but I don't see how right now.

[Frank_Wx]

Hi Frank , why is this happening this season ? Seems like when everyone hypes up winter ( everyones been saying this winter will be snowy ) it turnes out to be a bust very depressing !

There will probably be a case study done at the end of the season, especially if February also ends up snow-less, but my bet is the Stratosphere and the Sun. 2 anomalies that are very difficult to forecast, if not impossible (mainly the sun). Stratsophere can be forecasted but it's highly volatile. Those 2 features are vital drivers in our overall weather pattern.

[amugs]

This may sound crazy but the geomeagnetic activity with the sun has been high the past week and this will all correlate to our planet in the next few weeks resulting in us losing the -AO/-NAO state from mid January to when is anyone's guess - this activity lowered in mid December giving us hope of a rebuilding what we all thought of this -AO/-NAO but things are not looking all that rosy for January -AO/-NAO until the end of the month timeframe of the 1-25 week(?). This coincides what Cohen wrote up that SROC posted with his analysis - just looking into this and here is the chart - this will drive the qbo as well more negative IMO or stabilize its negative departure/level. Bite me!!!

[Guest]

So the sun being active makes us warmer eventually; First somewhere else than eventually here! Got it.

[algae888]

frank are you making a thread for the jan 3-4 storm. it looks like we could see some acc snow on the front end. esp inland. I like 1-3 or 2-4" right now. if the storm passes east of Chicago then we should have a warm front with over running snow for the first part of the storm with a strong cold arctic HP over maine holding its ground. as storm strengthens and moves n/e warm front should move through and change snow to rain and then become heavy as trailing cold front approaches. that's my thinking right now what are your thoughts...

[algae888]

also notice the thickness lines are more east /west than s/w to n/e which indicates hp holding its ground and minimal ocean warming influence to start this storm. WAA is likely to come from the south instead of the east which should allow low level cold air to hold longer even at the coast...

[Quietace]

I dont feel the coast is at play for more than a very short period of non accumulating frozen precip if any. Though NW areas in Central PA and Poconos up into the HV(Maybe include extreme NWNJ) have to watch out for a solid 2-4" front end thump, and some ice. Coastal plain will warm to quickly with 10m winds out of East and SE after 18z Saturday IMO.

[Frank_Wx]

I dont feel the coast is at play for more than a very short period of non accumulating frozen precip if any. Though NW areas in Central PA and Poconos up into the HV(Maybe include extreme NWNJ) have to watch out for a solid 2-4" front end thump, and some ice. Coastal plain will warm to quickly with 10m winds out of East and SE after 18z Saturday IMO.

Exactly right. 

I'll still make a thread though, maybe a map as well.

[sroc4]

Doc the problem is we lose the -EPO signal or it displaces west near the Aleutians. Once the western ridge collapses, the Pac. Jet is going to flood the country with mild air. 


The 300+ hour maps are in the thread you started, but the process begins around the 9th and mild air probably reaches us by the 12th or so. Could this be trasnsient? Yea, but I don't see how right now.

Im not not sure I buy into how pronounced it is currently advertised. End of the P GFS shows Blocking redeveloping over Greenland while the EPO rises

[Frank_Wx]

Winter outlook update coming this Saturday

[skinsfan1177]

Winter outlook update coming this Saturday

I don't think it's going to be great news as we are hearing the signals going in the wrong direction and a warm up after Jan 10th

[Frank_Wx]

Winter outlook update coming this Saturday

I don't think it's going to be great news as we are hearing the signals going in the wrong direction and a warm up after Jan 10th

Last season I didn't have to make an update because everything was going as planned. Anytime I have to make an update mid-winter, it means something about the original outlook is not going as planned.

[Guest]

Just saw the NWS 7 day forecast which had a LPS near the benchmark day 7 but now dropped it.(wow shocking)  But the good news is they are real confident about the storm Sat. and Sun. and only expect rain with about 1.25"  I'm psyched.  Happy New Years snow weenies. Stay patient!!

[amugs]

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

Winter outlook update coming this Saturday

I don't think it's going to be great news as we are hearing the signals going in the wrong direction and a warm up after Jan 10th

Last season I didn't have to make an update because everything was going as planned. Anytime I have to make an update mid-winter, it means something about the original outlook is not going as planned.[/quote
Frank,
I hear you it is not going as really anyone called and I am out of my castle as of tonite. Sun activity is ]off the charts with the package jet killing us!

[SoulSingMG]

Anyway, 'nuff about Sunday's soaker. How's that clipper looking mid-week? Maybe this rain storm sets us up for a colder spell after it with a couple of minor snow events? I'll take ANYTHING at this point..even a WWA event! ;-)

[aiannone]

do you guys think this storm is worth me taking up the drive to SVT to my vacation house about 1,200ft in elevation?

[Math23x7]

I looked at the CPC 6 to 10 day analogs (centered for January 8th, 2015) and one of those analogs is January 19th, 1994, which, to date, is the last CPK had a temperature reading below zero. I doubt that it gets that cold next week, but I thought it was interesting:

[amugs]

Winter outlook update coming this Saturday

I don't think it's going to be great news as we are hearing the signals going in the wrong direction and a warm up after Jan 10th

Last season I didn't have to make an update because everything was going as planned. Anytime I have to make an update mid-winter, it means something about the original outlook is not going as planned.

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