Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

by **Artechmetals** Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:33 pm

Hey Franks , congrats on finishing school !! Best of luck ! How's your confidence in the weather pattern change ? Are you still sticking by your original thoughts ? Again I think your forecasting knowledge is amazing

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:35 pm

Artechmetals wrote:Hey Franks , congrats on finishing school !! Best of luck ! How's your confidence in the weather pattern change ? Are you still sticking by your original thoughts ? Again I think your forecasting knowledge is amazing

Since Thanksgiving I have been saying Dec. 20th - Jan. 10th. I then originally though Dec. 20th-24th would be a transition period, but the new transition period is now Dec. 20th-Dec. 26th. I feel by New Years we will be in a great pattern with a couple storm chances between Dec. 27th-Jan. 5th

by **Artechmetals** Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:41 pm

Great was hoping your still confident , wishing you and your family a merry christmas and a healthy and prosperous new year

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:42 pm

Artechmetals wrote:Great was hoping your still confident , wishing you and your family a merry christmas and a healthy and prosperous new year

Thank you, same to yours!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:52 am

When I look to see how the pattern evolves after Xmas on the 00z GFS tonight, I notice is struggles with how it wants to handle the -NAO. Does the high latitude ridge anchor itself over the NAO ridge so it actually is a true -NAO, or does it begin to retrograde west toward the Pacific making it a transient block? Interesting.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:55 am

Brings back memories of Jan 1996 Blizzard in the early part of the month.May your analysis work out, Frank.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:02 am

Inaccurate weather now showing a mild ending to the month vs the 20's for highs they were showing just yesterday.

I'm getting a sinking feeling between this torching Christmas Eve rainstorm and now this. I may take a mental health brake for a few days and hope this is all just a bad dream. Hopefully when I check back we have some semblance of a winter pattern setting up. Until then I am heading back to OTI to plan the overthrow of an incompetent Snow Miser Monarch.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:36 am

The population of OTI share in your assesment of the Miserly Monarch who is strangely nowhere to be seen! The subjects are miserable at the prospects of a whiteless Christmas with rain and warmth and torches and pitchforks will be the order of the day with a march on the Monarch's Palace!!!!

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:33 am

Sorry What Is oti? I'm taking it all at face value now. Innaccuwx does howe've shoe consistent cold in jan and several snow possibilities. All we can do is wait patiently or not is dependent on how stressed u want to be about it.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:45 am

Nws upton mentions wind advisory criteria wed afternoon into thurs. That's a long time for strong winds wouldn't be suprise if met warning criteria but advisory possibility is a good bet at this time. I know no one cares about a wind and rain event but thought I'd just let people know secure decorations! Looks like this will not just be coastal winds either. May be more than one Santa flying by lol

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:15 am

Yawn... Sorry guys I knew buying a snowblower was going to jinx us into a nothing pattern.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:31 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Yawn... Sorry guys I knew buying a snowblower was going to jinx us into a nothing pattern.

Bastard!! JK

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:33 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Yawn... Sorry guys I knew buying a snowblower was going to jinx us into a nothing pattern.

Hmm so its your fault.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:55 am

NJ Jinx!!

Frankie - congrats and best of luck!!

I said this before and I am going to harp on the Jan 7-10 time frame for a HECS when the NAO relaxes a bit - 1996 redux. We will have some planetary alignment perigee at that time from what Jim Witt showed us back in November.

We have the euro ensembles now showing the pattern we have been harping on - another good sign

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 10 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 10 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:29 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Yawn... Sorry guys I knew buying a snowblower was going to jinx us into a nothing pattern.

Yep...curses!

by **amugs** Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:35 am

docstox12 wrote:The population of OTI share in your assesment of the Miserly Monarch who is strangely nowhere to be seen! The subjects are miserable at the prospects of a whiteless Christmas with rain and warmth and torches and pitchforks will be the order of the day with a march on the Monarch's Palace!!!!

Easy now you two (CP) - I have brought you a surprise with November but as the saying goes " you only as good as your last ..............." awe heck to OTI it is.

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:18 am

GFS shows some flakes flying for Christmas for NYC and the coast

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:25 am

Snow88 wrote:GFS shows some flakes flying for Christmas for NYC and the coast

Is that mother nature's way of apologizing to us or is it a further kick to the balls?

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:31 am

Its a kick in the balls in my book. I hope we turn it around soon

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:50 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Its a kick in the balls in my book. I hope we turn it around soon

The period after the 27th has 1-2 storm chances. It's a long way out though. Let's enjoy the weekend and see where we stand Monday

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:15 pm

I'll take some flakes flying and if the winds are into 50's like you said are possible Frank they will be really flyin'! Mugs I hope you are right!

by **aiannone** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:19 pm

Back home and ready for this pattern change! Hopefully we can get a storm shortly after Christmas. Teleconnections look to be favorable after this cutter Christmas Eve that should be our "pattern changer."

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:36 pm

Looks like you may miss out on some big snows from this one and 27th time frame up there in VT Alex, that stinks. Hoipefully mugs is right and we get a HECS before you gotta go back lol.

by **aiannone** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like you may miss out on some big snows from this one and 27th time frame up there in VT Alex, that stinks. Hoipefully mugs is right and we get a HECS before you gotta go back lol.

Ehh, i don't think i'll miss out on much. This storm next week should be mainly rain up there too. Crappy pattern for the NE now, but it looks to be changing.

by **HectorO** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:44 pm

I feel like everytime they talk about heavy gusts, that they always overplay it. We'll see how this turns out. I gotta work Christmas Eve and day. Sucks. Remember my name guys. This time next year I could have a design that will make me a very wealthy person. I'll have an estate in the snowbelt and invite you guys over during Christmas

by Guest Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:50 pm

On today's NWS long range page the cutter on Christmas Eve looks to be even further west than yesterday's run. The parent low is up in northern WI and our surface low is near Cleveland OH. Frank is this a good thing? I remember you saying the further west it cuts the better for our pattern going forward. It also shows an inch less QPF for the storm and another storm located in Tennessee on the 27th. What say you Frank.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:55 pm

The track for this cutter is all over the place, like all our other systems I would not expect this to have any real consensus until next week, not answering for Frank but from what I have been reading its still quite uncertain.

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