Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Guest]

On today's NWS long range page the cutter on Christmas Eve looks to be even further west than yesterday's run. The parent low is up in northern WI and our surface low is near Cleveland OH. Frank is this a good thing? I remember you saying the further west it cuts the better for our pattern going forward. It also shows an inch less QPF for the storm and another storm located in Tennessee on the 27th. What say you Frank.

[jmanley32]

The track for this cutter is all over the place, like all our other systems I would not expect this to have any real consensus until next week, not answering for Frank but from what I have been reading its still quite uncertain.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The less winds Christmas Eve the better. I have family coming in from Atlanta Christmas Eve morning and I would like to see them for Christmas. This stupid ass GLC is making that look doubtful.

This GLC like all GLC's are just an albatross in the Northeast. Like Alex was saying they won't even see snow in Northern NY and Northern NE, from this. It's the nightmare scenario and setup for northeast. The chance of snow from these setups are -100%.

With that said, the further west this thing ends up the happier I'll be. Hopefully it lessens the effect of the winds Christmas Eve.

[jmanley32]

Yep CP, it stinks would much prefer snow of course. It has weakened a bit since runs a day or two ago but of course models will shuffle all over, but I am betting on strong winds like frank said at least 40-50mph gusts possible. Looks to be after the rain when the system really winds up. I hope they make it in okay, I think there will be lulls but looks to be a fairly long duration event. Lets hope the good that comes out of it is a pattern change for a blockbuster snowstorm, CP I think you will be happy them right : )

[jmanley32]

Oh CP I reread your post, I am pretty sure winds don't pick up until later in the afternoon or evening xmas eve so if they are coming I nthe morning unless there is a time change in the system coming in the winds will be light enough for planes.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Jman, you're the wind guy, I hope you're right and I hope this monstrosity does bring about some kind of pattern change, for the better.

[jmanley32]

Well lol apparently not as I was dead wrong last time lol. Frank knew better. But this doesn't appear to be so much a forcing needed wind or convective as it does seem to be tight pressure gradiant, man GFS on instantweathermaps has winds over the ocean getting to almost 90mph! The other day they had us gusting 60-70, but it has come down now, probably to a more reasonable level unless a big change happens, I think Franks forecast of into the 50s possible on xmas day is good for now.

[jmanley32]

I'll be out there on our walk over bridge on xmas playing with my gift to myself my anemometer and reporting gusts to the forum lol. I am not celebrating until 27th as family cannot all get together until then, oh well. It has been that way for many years. Chinese food and movies on xmas I guess lol.

[jmanley32]

12z euro period of strongest wind gusts well into 50's in a lot of areas.

[sroc4]

I'll be out there on our walk over bridge on xmas playing with my gift to myself my anemometer and reporting gusts to the forum lol.  I am not celebrating until 27th as family cannot all get together until then, oh well.  It has been that way for many years.  Chinese food and movies on xmas I guess lol.

Fa rah rah, rah, rah...rah rah rah rah!

[jmanley32]

omg yes sroc! my fav movie!

[jmanley32]

innaccuwx has gusts on xmas eve day to 51mph (with the rain) and 43 at night, then 60mph (sheesh) all xmas day, luckily this is accuwx and their numbers change daily if not multiple times a day and even then they do not always verify. I will give them credit sometimes they do.

[jmanley32]

I want for Christmas (and it can come anytime this winter) A roidzilla blizzard winds gusting 60+, snowfall rates 2-4 inches per hour on a Friday or sat night totaling at least 24 inches. Thank you Santa, lol

[Frank_Wx]

Heads up:

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected.

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

[nutleyblizzard]

Heads up:

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected.

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

North Korea cyber attack?

[Frank_Wx]

Heads up:

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected.

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

North Korea cyber attack?

Seriously, they've had a ton of issues.

All pieces of guidance today say "game on" after the 27th. Hopefully this is true.

[nutleyblizzard]

Heads up:

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected.

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

North Korea cyber attack?

Seriously, they've had a ton of issues.

All pieces of guidance today say "game on" after the 27th. Hopefully this is true.

I hope so, Frank. We're all on the edge right now with this current pattern.

[jmanley32]

Sorry I knew about the outage a while ago, Maue posted it sorry I didn't mention it. Oh well at least our best models were not affected lol, game on Frank bring me my Christmas present : )

[nutleyblizzard]

Our Xmas cutter storm according to the latest guidance has trended west. If that comes to fruition, that will help to set up a western based block for us. It remains to be seen if this will be a transient block, or something more longterm.

[Frank_Wx]

Our Xmas cutter storm according to the latest guidance has trended west. If that comes to fruition, that will help to set up a western based block for us. It remains to be seen if this will be a transient block, or something more longterm.

Right now thinking transient then we will see another transition period maybe between January 6th-12th. Then once the SSWE comes to fruition we should be good to go with blocking. Long way out though. Just speaking off the top of my head

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Our Xmas cutter storm according to the latest guidance has trended west. If that comes to fruition, that will help to set up a western based block for us. It remains to be seen if this will be a transient block, or something more longterm.

The further west the better, I hope it hits Seattle before we're through. No good cutters.

[Frank_Wx]

-EPO/-NAO/-PNA pattern by 28th per euro ens

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[amugs]

Our Xmas cutter storm according to the latest guidance has trended west. If that comes to fruition, that will help to set up a western based block for us. It remains to be seen if this will be a transient block, or something more longterm.

The further west the better, I hope it hits Seattle before we're through. No good cutters.

LMAO CP!!

[jmanley32]

Wow would that be a epic fail for the models lol

[Radz]

I will gladly endure a wind swept 50* rainy Christmas eve as long as the Christmas Eve Great Lakes Blizzard delivers the ultimate gift - pattern change baby!!!

[sroc4]

This is for CP and anyone else still sad about December and who is standing at the edge of the bridge contemplating the proverbial snow weenie mass suicide.  Do you remember how warm it was in December 2013? Do you happen to remember the temperature for CP on the 20, 21st, and 22nd of last year? Check the image. Thats right your eyes are not deceiving you...50's 60's and yes 70's.  Remember it's not even winter yet. That starts tomorrow.  The cold and snow will come...Step away from the edge everyone...step AWAY from the edge.    
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Image compliments of Rich Hoffman News 12

[docstox12]

This is for CP and anyone else still sad about December and who is standing at the edge of the bridge contemplating the proverbial snow weenie mass suicide.  Do you remember how warm it was in December 2013? Do you happen to remember the temperature for CP on the 20, 21st, and 22nd of last year? Check the image. Thats right your eyes are not deceiving you...50's 60's and yes 70's.  Remember it's not even winter yet. That starts tomorrow.  The cold and snow will come...Step away from the edge everyone...step AWAY from the edge.    
" />
Image compliments of Rich Hoffman News 12

Good work,Doc, sanity and reason backed by fact!

Winter starts tomorrow and there are three full months of possible snow time coming.

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