Official Long Range Thread 5.0
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
This is for CP and anyone else still sad about December and who is standing at the edge of the bridge contemplating the proverbial snow weenie mass suicide. Do you remember how warm it was in December 2013? Do you happen to remember the temperature for CP on the 20, 21st, and 22nd of last year? Check the image. Thats right your eyes are not deceiving you...50's 60's and yes 70's. Remember it's not even winter yet. That starts tomorrow. The cold and snow will come...Step away from the edge everyone...step AWAY from the edge.
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Image compliments of Rich Hoffman News 12
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Image compliments of Rich Hoffman News 12
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:This is for CP and anyone else still sad about December and who is standing at the edge of the bridge contemplating the proverbial snow weenie mass suicide. Do you remember how warm it was in December 2013? Do you happen to remember the temperature for CP on the 20, 21st, and 22nd of last year? Check the image. Thats right your eyes are not deceiving you...50's 60's and yes 70's. Remember it's not even winter yet. That starts tomorrow. The cold and snow will come...Step away from the edge everyone...step AWAY from the edge.
" />
Image compliments of Rich Hoffman News 12
Good work,Doc, sanity and reason backed by fact!
Winter starts tomorrow and there are three full months of possible snow time coming.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
One thing you forgot to point out in that chart Doc, Central Park also had 8.6 inches of snow before Christmas last December, this year 1.0 inch. I stand by statement, that this December blows.
Pattern change? We shall see, I'm like everyone else and still hoping.
BTW that 70 last year was only the 3rd time in 145 years it ever topped 70 in CPK in December. That was weird I'll grant you that. I'll grant you one other thing, after that 70 degree last year soon after we did go into a nice prolonged period of cold and snow.
Pattern change? We shall see, I'm like everyone else and still hoping.
BTW that 70 last year was only the 3rd time in 145 years it ever topped 70 in CPK in December. That was weird I'll grant you that. I'll grant you one other thing, after that 70 degree last year soon after we did go into a nice prolonged period of cold and snow.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:One thing you forgot to point out in that chart Doc, Central Park also had 8.6 inches of snow before Christmas last December, this year 1.0 inch. I stand by statement, that this December blows.
Pattern change? We shall see, I'm like everyone else and still hoping.
BTW that 70 last year was only the 3rd time in 145 years it ever topped 70 in CPK in December. That was weird I'll grant you that. I'll grant you one other thing, after that 70 degree last year soon after we did go into a nice prolonged period of cold and snow.
Exactly. Trust me if this winter ends up with avg or below avg snowfall for my area I will be as disappointed as the next snow weenie, but to give up before the winter solstice as many seem to have done is ludicrous IMHO.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
We need to bring the positive vibes or Joo Joo as it referenced to the winter months. Let 's stop hugging models - well if they are of the attractive sex then by all means go right ahead - and let the pattern happen. Cp I hear and totally understand your factual sentiments of the December factor - one to rectify this is Tom must return his snow blower under the cloak of darkness by 00z tomorrow night and anyone else on this board for God 's sake!
To the shortest sunlight day of the year tomorrow and let the winter begin. May that cutter reboot our pattern and clean out this crap set up we r in. - EPO, NAO and AO pay a lengthy visit while the west coast torches under a nice ridge and mr nino keeps the juice flowing our way.
You can dethrone me by saying this BUT we actually need this strong cutter to change the pattern so syosnow - you and me and everyone else who wants a white Xmas boo hoo but .......... this storm may be our Xmas present going forward.
To the shortest sunlight day of the year tomorrow and let the winter begin. May that cutter reboot our pattern and clean out this crap set up we r in. - EPO, NAO and AO pay a lengthy visit while the west coast torches under a nice ridge and mr nino keeps the juice flowing our way.
You can dethrone me by saying this BUT we actually need this strong cutter to change the pattern so syosnow - you and me and everyone else who wants a white Xmas boo hoo but .......... this storm may be our Xmas present going forward.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
EPO takes a big nosedive right after Christmas
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
FWIW, hr 240 of the 12/20 12Z EURO OP has a ridge over Greenland. I looked at the weatherbell image and I was like
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Everybody is on edge waiting to see what will happen after the Christmas storm. I for one believe the pattern will change for us snow weenies.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
skinsfan1177 wrote:Everybody is on edge waiting to see what will happen after the Christmas storm. I for one believe the pattern will change for us snow weenies.
Hope so. NWS has us in mid to upper 40'3 all the way through the 28th.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Pretty stark contrasts between the GEFS and EPS around New Years. The GEFS shows an elongated PV over the NAO region that results in a +NAO, with a strong signal for a -EPO.
The EPS locks in a -NAO between the 26th and 31st of December while also maintaining a -EPO signal.
I would much prefer the EPS solution, so we'll have to check back after the weekend and see where things trended.
And for those curious, the GFS-PARA looks more like the EPS though it's more east-based than the EURO (EPS looks slightly east-based as well).
The EPS locks in a -NAO between the 26th and 31st of December while also maintaining a -EPO signal.
I would much prefer the EPS solution, so we'll have to check back after the weekend and see where things trended.
And for those curious, the GFS-PARA looks more like the EPS though it's more east-based than the EURO (EPS looks slightly east-based as well).
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
I hope you're right Frank I trust you. Could someone explain this NWS forecast?
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 6 mph.
Monday A chance of rain after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Wind chill values between 30 and 40. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Rain. High near 57. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday Night Rain. Low around 42. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Breezy.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 47.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Saturday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
That's significantly above average forecast through the 28th
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind around 6 mph.
Monday A chance of rain after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Wind chill values between 30 and 40. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Rain. High near 57. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday Night Rain. Low around 42. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Breezy.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 47.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Saturday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
That's significantly above average forecast through the 28th
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
6z GFS is cold and stormy for NYE into the first week of January.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Yep big storm around 30/31st 990mb to 978 into candaian maritimes that is inside benchmark and snow for many, coast is rain/ice to snow, and again a weaker storm on Jan 4th.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Geez, idk what is going on with the Stratosphere this season but its not cooperating. A few days ago I reported there is a SSWE (sudden stratospheric warming event) taking place at the 10 mb level. While that still is true, the warmth is not propagating to the other levels (30mb, 50 mb, and 70 mb). This means we may be dealing with our THIRD straight failed SSWE of the season.
Why is this important? Well, the PV will not split and is likely to remain bottled up in the Arctic (+AO). While the period between Dec. 28th-Jan. 8th looks cold with some storm threats, I'm becoming concerned that mid January could be warm.
But that's way out in time and things can still change. Let's try and see if we can get something in the aforementioned period after Xmas.
Why is this important? Well, the PV will not split and is likely to remain bottled up in the Arctic (+AO). While the period between Dec. 28th-Jan. 8th looks cold with some storm threats, I'm becoming concerned that mid January could be warm.
But that's way out in time and things can still change. Let's try and see if we can get something in the aforementioned period after Xmas.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Additionally, MJO wants to go in phases 4-5-6 by Jan. 8th which correlates to warmer than average weather on the east coast. Euro ensembles, which as I showed yesterday showed a -NAO, trended last night toward the GEFS with a +NAO.
Negative developments overnight. Maybe it was a blimp. Who knows
Negative developments overnight. Maybe it was a blimp. Who knows
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
jmanley32 wrote:Yep big storm around 30/31st 990mb to 978 into candaian maritimes that is inside benchmark and snow for many, coast is rain/ice to snow, and again a weaker storm on Jan 4th.
Jman:
To start talking about snow inland,and rain ice to snow on the coast for a storm 10 days out, if there is a storm at all, is just a waste of time. Let's be real here.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
CP i was just stating the image instead of posting it verbatim (what it showed), sheesh, I am well aware its nothing set in stone or if it will even happen you should know I know this. Would u rather I say its gonna be all rain? Was just trying to make some hope here by mentioning the possibility of snow. But from what Frank just posted it looks ugly, lets hope it is a blip.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
I do know that Jman, the pattern has me irritable that's all. Plus I am growing tired of these so called snow storms 10 days out that never come close to materializing, at least snow wise. I'm starting to believe the people that programmed these models built in these fantasy storms in the northeast 10 days out just to torture us.
Like I've been saying all year I don't take any of them seriously anymore until they're 3 days out, and even then with a grain of salt.
Like I've been saying all year I don't take any of them seriously anymore until they're 3 days out, and even then with a grain of salt.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Nothing a blockbuster whiteout snowstorm won't cure.Jan and Feb coming up.Hope is a good thing.....
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
im being optimistic at this point I know where hearing it could be warm middle jan. im not buying any of it especially since everything in the LR changes
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Yes CP, I understand I am just trying to stay positive, trying not to get irritated myself enough to be irritated about with shoppers traffic etc lol. Anyways LR 10 day does show storm around 30th, lets just leave it at that a possibility, and hopefully one day soon one of these LR events will come around, and I bet anything it will. Just grit and bear it this week, today is our most holiday feeling day I think we will have.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
I like the fact that GFS and CMC both show a storm at that timeframe, if Euro does too it will be the first time I can remember in a while that all 3 showed a similar event in LR, just saying.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
12z Euro today shows a rain to snow storm for the area on the 28th. Again, the period after Xmas to about the 6th-8th of Jan. bares watching as we go into a winter pattern by then. The question becomes can we keep it past the 8th? At this point I'm sure most of us would take out 10-day winter pattern even if it is transient.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Frank_Wx wrote:12z Euro today shows a rain to snow storm for the area on the 28th. Again, the period after Xmas to about the 6th-8th of Jan. bares watching as we go into a winter pattern by then. The question becomes can we keep it past the 8th? At this point I'm sure most of us would take out 10-day winter pattern even if it is transient.
YES I WOULD!!!!!
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Euro ensembles like the storm idea around the 28th. Colder than the Euro OP
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Per the request of some users I am posting the useless snow map, just to add insult to injury for something that probably will not happen, its not a huge snowfall but its something and east gets hammered, plenty of time to watch this, Al if NWS says all liquid I dunno what to think, Frank its a very good sign that the ensembles like the 28th. But I am losing faith in any of the long range, which is why the map is FOR FUN ONLY! Some of you will not be happy but I see it as a potential for the area, havent looked at ensembles but I am sure some are easst some are west. No one better say anything I was ASKED to post this : )
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Very few of the ensembles show accumulating snow FWIW 180 hrs out. But some do show a LP.
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