Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[sroc4]

Thanks Frank. I also found Doc Martuccis latest blog. Incredibly informative read on all the major patterns that govern the atmosphere. Oh and if you still want a good winter this will restore your faith. https://doctoochweather.wordpress.com/2014/12/23/winter-cancel-not-by-a-long-shot/

[Frank_Wx]

The period between Dec. 28th and Jan. 7th continues to look like a favorable period to get our first widespread snow accumulation of the season. The 12z EPS is not as bullish as the OP models in bringing the PV so far south, and I also have a hard time believing that too because of the +AO. Last season, the AO was solidly negative in conjunction with the EPO so the PV was dealing with a lot of force. I always preach "extreme" is not good, meaning a signal too negative or too positive will not be very beneficial for us. Take the extreme negative QBO for instance. The Pac. Jet is very fast and taking s/w's and digging them into the SW CONUS. Once the upper Stratosphere zonal winds shift from west to east, we should see the QBO make its march toward neutral territory and finally get some high latitude blocking. LR projections recently are showing the PV at 50 hPa splitting, which if true, could finally help turn things around.

Best thing to do right now is follow the period between the 28th and 7th - it has good potential despite the -PNA/+NAO - then we'll worry about the pattern once we get some more answers.

[Frank_Wx]

Good ol' Doc. Love that guy.

[nutleyblizzard]

Last nights run of the 0z Euro continues to show a PV split after the new year. If that were to verify, we would be looking at longterm cold and storminess. That's why I think the models are having such a tough time in the medium range… they may be in disarray with the impending pattern change.

[skinsfan1177]

Great stuff by everyone on here explaining the QBO amazing how the weather comes together. I hope so nutleyblizzard that it changes soon

[Frank_Wx]

Euro continues to split the PV in Day 6-10 range. It does a full split by day 9. Really cool to see on WxBell.

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[Frank_Wx]

GFS has a coastal storm for new years eve. This model is more focused on the 31st storm, whereas the euro model is focused on the 29th. 

Hmmmm

[jmanley32]

Yeah bodes well for inland but coastal plane and pretty far inland get skunked on that run. Do you think they are the same system, but spaced that far apart from a different timing perspective or two separate systems to watch?

[chief7]

in my humble opinion i believe we have to wait for the MJO to get into more of favorable phases aka(8-1) with the european model until then enjoy the slightly above average temperatures and and the rain... thank you southeast ridge. Merry Christmas everyone!

[Guest]

[quote="chief7"]in my humble opinion i believe we have to wait for the MJO to get into more of favorable phases aka(8-1) with the european model until then enjoy the slightly above average temperatures and and the rain... thank you southeast ridge.  Merry Christmas everyone![/quote
Unfortunately you seem to be correct.

[Frank_Wx]

It looks like Dec. 30th will be the official date of the pattern change when we enter a much cooler than normal regime. The question becomes...will we remain cold/dry or cold with a couple storm chances? Unfortunately, with the fast Pacific Jet I talked about due to the extremely negative QBO, this will keep our PNA negative as well so all the energy gets buried in the southwest U.S. We have to see if any of it can eject into the Midwest and eventually the northeast while cold air is still intact.

New Years Day remains an interesting time period for a possible storm. Right now, I would bet against once but the pieces are there for one to come together. The reason I feel we may not see one is due to the energy at H5 closing off in the southwest U.S. which means there is no southern stream energy for the northern stream to work with.

Besides NYD storm threat, there is another around the 4th. Way too early to even analyze that one. We'll see if models come around to the NYD storm idea at all, but it will take some work on their part.

[Frank_Wx]

More detailed write-up from me...

Buon Natale - Merry Christmas everyone.

The 00z suite runs tonight were pretty demoralizing, despite the 00z CMC/GFS Para showing some measurable precip. in the area on the 29th. However, judging off H5 I would say they are trending toward the EURO which hardly shows a storm. At this point, I am not feeling optimistic about any precip. on the 29th, and if we do get any it would likely come in the form of light rain. It all depends on how much energy makes it from the Gulf coast to the northeast. I'm not completely discounting the CMC, but when I look at the overall pattern I just do not see how the energy does not shear itself out. There is no northern stream energy diving in to help enhance the storm or anything of that nature. One thing this front will do is drag down an arctic air mass toward the coast and we will enter a below normal temp. regime beginning on the 30th.

Now that we are establishing cold temps. in the area, this would be a good time to look for a possible storm to get some snow. The 00z EURO/Para runs tonight both show a potent piece of s/w energy closing off at H5 in the southwest U.S. The unfavorably tilted EPO ridge in combination with a fast Pac. Jet is what allows the energy to dig so much into that section of the country and eventually close off. What this does to the pattern is split the flow (separate the STJ & PJ) so you have a mild air mass in the southern CONUS and an arctic air mass in the northern tier of the country. A split-flow pattern with sufficient blocking can often times lead to large storm threats along the east coast. The NAO, however, looks to stay positive. As the split-flow pattern is getting established, the PV is now over the Hudson Bay and rotating pieces of arctic H5 energy into the CONUS.

The closed off vort in the southwest U.S. means business. Where it tracks is the million dollar question. Does it cut to our west like today's Christmas storm, or is the PV enough of a block to track it toward our coast with perhaps a piece of northern stream energy phasing into it? The time frame for this possible storm would be Dec. 31st-Jan. 1st. No matter how you slice or dice it, this is still a progressive pattern and the +NAO/-PNA duo to me screams cutter. It all depends on how far south the PV settles. There also remains the possibility that the energy in the SW U.S. does not close off, which would enable it to eject east faster and lessen the likelihood of it cutting. Hopefully guidance trends in that direction.

From an optimist standpoint, this can be considered a step-down process. Now that we are beginning to establish an arctic air mass in central and southern Canada, it will not take much to get it to our coast for future events beyond New Years Day. The Stratospheric PV is also expected to split in the Day 6-8 time frame, but where is sets up shop will also be important.

[Guest]

More detailed write-up from me...

Buon Natale - Merry Christmas everyone.

The 00z suite runs tonight were pretty demoralizing, despite the 00z CMC/GFS Para showing some measurable precip. in the area on the 29th. However, judging off H5 I would say they are trending toward the EURO which hardly shows a storm. At this point, I am not feeling optimistic about any precip. on the 29th, and if we do get any it would likely come in the form of light rain. It all depends on how much energy makes it from the Gulf coast to the northeast. I'm not completely discounting the CMC, but when I look at the overall pattern I just do not see how the energy does not shear itself out. There is no northern stream energy diving in to help enhance the storm or anything of that nature. One thing this front will do is drag down an arctic air mass toward the coast and we will enter a below normal temp. regime beginning on the 30th.

Now that we are establishing cold temps. in the area, this would be a good time to look for a possible storm to get some snow. The 00z EURO/Para runs tonight both show a potent piece of s/w energy closing off at H5 in the southwest U.S. The unfavorably tilted EPO ridge in combination with a fast Pac. Jet is what allows the energy to dig so much into that section of the country and eventually close off. What this does to the pattern is split the flow (separate the STJ & PJ) so you have a mild air mass in the southern CONUS and an arctic air mass in the northern tier of the country. A split-flow pattern with sufficient blocking can often times lead to large storm threats along the east coast. The NAO, however, looks to stay positive.  As the split-flow pattern is getting established, the PV is now over the Hudson Bay and rotating pieces of arctic H5 energy into the CONUS.

The closed off vort in the southwest U.S. means business. Where it tracks is the million dollar question. Does it cut to our west like today's Christmas storm, or is the PV enough of a block to track it toward our coast with perhaps a piece of northern stream energy phasing into it? The time frame for this possible storm would be Dec. 31st-Jan. 1st. No matter how you slice or dice it, this is still a progressive pattern and the +NAO/-PNA duo to me screams cutter. It all depends on how far south the PV settles. There also remains the possibility that the energy in the SW U.S. does not close off, which would enable it to eject east faster and lessen the likelihood of it cutting. Hopefully guidance trends in that direction.  

From an optimist standpoint, this can be considered a step-down process. Now that we are beginning to establish an arctic air mass in central and southern Canada, it will not take much to get it to our coast for future events beyond New Years Day. The Stratospheric PV is also expected to split in the Day 6-8 time frame, but where is sets up shop will also be important.

TALK ABOUT WAKING UO TO COAL IN YOUR STOCKING!! THE WINTER THAT HASN'T BEEN AND MIGHT NOT BE!!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Merry Christmas Frank:

Thanks for always giving us a heads up and the real deal.

It's an extremely complex weather world out there and no one knows for certain whats going to happen a day from now. Certainly two weeks and a month from now is a good scientific guess, or analysis of current trends at best. No one does either better than you and the pros on this forum.

On this Christmas day I now ask God to give me the strength to accept things weather wise I cannot change. Something at age 53 I still cannot seem to do.

[Frank_Wx]

PV is still splitting in the day 6-6-10 range. This is very good news. 

[jmanley32]

Looks like in long rage a very intense cutter, and the Euro wind gusts are insane, I have not seen something like this in a long time but I do not believe it, although a 985mb cutter in upstate NY like it shows I guess could produce winds high but this is just rediculous.

[Frank_Wx]

A threat around the 4th of Jan..where the PV is positioned will depend on whether or not this storm cuts. I am expecting it to cut or be an apps runner for now.

[jmanley32]

Para gfs shows this one producing snow. Euro still showing high winds too but not like above a bit lower but it's way too early I've seen like with this last non event that euro seems to exaggerate wind gusts.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

After all the hype the news media gave this Santa bomb, what a dud it turned out to be. I'm not buying into any wind or snow hype on these models until it actually happens.

Poor people in the Midwest, their promised Santa Bomb to bring a white Christmas and it never brought anything but rain.

Through all the hype of this pathetic cutter Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland are still without any measurable snow through December. At least were all suffering.

They should have listened to Frank.

[Frank_Wx]

There's a few things I am watching:

1. For the most part, the El Nino has not responded well with our atmosphere.  This has been very La Nina-like and the biggest reason for that has been the lack of tropical forcing in key regions of the MJO. According to Tom (Isotherm), that may change by mid month as convection looks to build over the dateline. This may be able to help us get into more of a Nino pattern than Nina. This is why the NWS has not declared this an El Nino winter, the atmosphere is simply not responding. 

2. The PV will split within the next week, but where does it set up afterward and will it be enough to keep the southeast ridge muted? 

3. We're definitely moving into a colder pattern after the 28th but the question always remains how long does it last? The storm around the 4th would be a great snowstorm with the right track since we now have the cold, but the lack of blocking may force it to cut to our west. Again, depends where the PV tracks. Maybe it could act as a block. 

4. I said in my winter outlook there will be a Godzilla but I did not give a time stamp. Researching some analogs and patterns, I feel this storm will occur somewhere between Jan. 25th-February 12th.

[sroc4]

There's a few things I am watching:

1. For the most part, the El Nino has not responded well with our atmosphere.  This has been very La Nina-like and the biggest reason for that has been the lack of tropical forcing in key regions of the MJO. According to Tom (Isotherm), that may change by mid month as convection looks to build over the dateline. This may be able to help us get into more of a Nino pattern than Nina. This is why the NWS has not declared this an El Nino winter, the atmosphere is simply not responding. 

2. The PV will split within the next week, but where does it set up afterward and will it be enough to keep the southeast ridge muted? 

3. We're definitely moving into a colder pattern after the 28th but the question always remains how long does it last? The storm around the 4th would be a great snowstorm with the right track since we now have the cold, but the lack of blocking may force it to cut to our west. Again, depends where the PV tracks. Maybe it could act as a block. 

4. I said in my winter outlook there will be a Godzilla but I did not give a time stamp. Researching some analogs and patterns, I feel this storm will occur somewhere between Jan. 25th-February 12th.

I would be interested to hear what his thoughts are on the QBO. There are some who believe that the MJO is in response to the QBO. As the neg QBO relaxes it will allow the MJO to come out of its current unfavorable funk and very quickly shioft the 500mb pattern into what should be our winter pattern in the east given the state of all the rest. (SST weak west based el nino, etc) The point is the MJO is not the problem but in response to the problem.

[Frank_Wx]

There's a few things I am watching:

1. For the most part, the El Nino has not responded well with our atmosphere.  This has been very La Nina-like and the biggest reason for that has been the lack of tropical forcing in key regions of the MJO. According to Tom (Isotherm), that may change by mid month as convection looks to build over the dateline. This may be able to help us get into more of a Nino pattern than Nina. This is why the NWS has not declared this an El Nino winter, the atmosphere is simply not responding. 

2. The PV will split within the next week, but where does it set up afterward and will it be enough to keep the southeast ridge muted? 

3. We're definitely moving into a colder pattern after the 28th but the question always remains how long does it last? The storm around the 4th would be a great snowstorm with the right track since we now have the cold, but the lack of blocking may force it to cut to our west. Again, depends where the PV tracks. Maybe it could act as a block. 

4. I said in my winter outlook there will be a Godzilla but I did not give a time stamp. Researching some analogs and patterns, I feel this storm will occur somewhere between Jan. 25th-February 12th.

I would be interested to hear what his thoughts are on the QBO.  There are some who believe that the MJO is in response to the QBO.  As the neg QBO relaxes it will allow the MJO to come out of its current unfavorable funk and very quickly shioft the 500mb pattern into what should be our winter pattern in the east given the state of all the rest. (SST weak west based el nino, etc)  The point is the MJO is not the problem but in response to the problem.  

I had a minor discussion with him about how strongly easterly (negative) the QBO has been and he said its normal. QBO episodes come in cycles, some as high as 16 months. Most analogs have a turn around of the QBO by mid winter

[sroc4]

There's a few things I am watching:

1. For the most part, the El Nino has not responded well with our atmosphere.  This has been very La Nina-like and the biggest reason for that has been the lack of tropical forcing in key regions of the MJO. According to Tom (Isotherm), that may change by mid month as convection looks to build over the dateline. This may be able to help us get into more of a Nino pattern than Nina. This is why the NWS has not declared this an El Nino winter, the atmosphere is simply not responding. 

2. The PV will split within the next week, but where does it set up afterward and will it be enough to keep the southeast ridge muted? 

3. We're definitely moving into a colder pattern after the 28th but the question always remains how long does it last? The storm around the 4th would be a great snowstorm with the right track since we now have the cold, but the lack of blocking may force it to cut to our west. Again, depends where the PV tracks. Maybe it could act as a block. 

4. I said in my winter outlook there will be a Godzilla but I did not give a time stamp. Researching some analogs and patterns, I feel this storm will occur somewhere between Jan. 25th-February 12th.

I would be interested to hear what his thoughts are on the QBO.  There are some who believe that the MJO is in response to the QBO.  As the neg QBO relaxes it will allow the MJO to come out of its current unfavorable funk and very quickly shioft the 500mb pattern into what should be our winter pattern in the east given the state of all the rest. (SST weak west based el nino, etc)  The point is the MJO is not the problem but in response to the problem.  

I had a minor discussion with him about how strongly easterly (negative) the QBO has been and he said its normal. QBO episodes come in cycles, some as high as 16 months. Most analogs have a turn around of the QBO by mid winter

Steve D claims the way the QBO has behaved thus far is somewhat unprecedented.  IE: not the absolute value but the fact that is has remained sustained in the -20's for as long as it has.  According to Steve D at least in the past 65 yrs once the QBO peeks as high as it does it it should rapidly fall thereafter.  Here is a write up from earlier in the week.  
"   Never in any recorded cases going back to 1950 has the QBO ever constantly increased or decreased for more than 6 months.  Further, there are no cases of the QBO being this strong and then not rapidly weakening there after.  We appeared to have reached that peak back in October at -23.86. The idea was the QBO would start to weaken in November, which it did, but just not fast enough.  The raw data suggest the QBO is slowly but steadily weakening this month as well, but again not as fast as I had thought it would. "

And this was his write up from this morning.  

"This morning I figure I show you the cause of the poor December forecast where we have mild temperatures and not much if any snow for the coast.  Interior has done nicely though. (FYI I ADDED THE IMAGES YOU SEE)
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Different view:
[img][/img]

You see that area of red and white in the Pacific?  That is called a jet streak and that jet streak is messing up the whole weather pattern.  You see, the QBO becoming strongly negative can enhance certain parts of the Polar jet stream.  Sometimes this works in our favor if that enhancement happens to be over North America.  This time though, that enhancement is over Asia, specifically China.  As a result, the base of the trough due to the enhanced Hadley Cell, is producing an unusually strong jet streak.  This jet streak then drives into the western North America and before you know it, the whole pattern over North America is forced northward and Pacific air floods the United States.

The Polar Vortex splits but doesn’t drop very quickly and high latitude blocking, although favored, is stunted in development as the whole 500 MB pattern is shifted northeast.  This whole process prevents our winter pattern to develop and also shifts tropical convection further east, thus the MJO phases of 4, 5, and 6.

We know what needs to happen.  The QBO must weaken and all research data suggest that is exactly what should be happening now.  The weakening QBO will have a rapid and abrupt influence on the 500 MB pattern.  We will know that the QBO has weakened  when that jet streak collapses.  Then the pattern snaps in like a over taunt rubber band with major implications on the 500 MB pattern.  The MJO jumps and locks into phases 7, 8, and 1 after that.

So now we ask, will the MJO behave as suggested by research of over 50 years or are we dealing with a new QBO characteristic that we are seeing for the first time that we can record at least.

That is the question.  The failure of the winter forecast thus far is not because something was missed.  It is because what we are seeing has not been recorded before in such a fashion.  Interesting times ahead."

[Frank_Wx]

Doc a few pages back I made the correlation between -QBOs and fast Pac. Jet streaks. That's why our PNA is strugglng to go positive.

[Frank_Wx]

And I do hope people take the time to read what Steve D says in the post Sroc just made. Some people on other forums are calling out all the forecasters who made their predictions of a colder and snowier than normal winter. Fact of the matter is, everything that we were researching IS THERE but one important teleconnector, the QBO, is behaving in a manner we have not seen in the last 50 years. We as forecasters were not able to see this coming when we were making our outlooks. NO ONE WAS ABLE TO SEE THIS COMING.  

When or if the QBO weakens is when the winter pattern becomes permanent

Hopefully it happens before January is over.

[Frank_Wx]

This type of jet streak over China is not what you want to see (pictured).Literally disrupting the entire configuration of our winter pattern at H5.

In my opinion, if you want to salvage winter I would use the models to look at the H2 and H5 levels in the Pacific. Forget the Atlantic, because blocking is not going to come until a successful SSWE takes place and that may not happen.

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[HectorO]

Screw winter. Today feels great, I'm ready for spring after this beautiful day. Like I said in November, if the supposed "pattern change" is going to happen, its going to happen late IMO. Still sticking to a wet milder winter, like I said in early November.

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