Official Long Range Thread 5.0
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
This type of jet streak over China is not what you want to see (pictured).Literally disrupting the entire configuration of our winter pattern at H5.
In my opinion, if you want to salvage winter I would use the models to look at the H2 and H5 levels in the Pacific. Forget the Atlantic, because blocking is not going to come until a successful SSWE takes place and that may not happen.
In my opinion, if you want to salvage winter I would use the models to look at the H2 and H5 levels in the Pacific. Forget the Atlantic, because blocking is not going to come until a successful SSWE takes place and that may not happen.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Screw winter. Today feels great, I'm ready for spring after this beautiful day. Like I said in November, if the supposed "pattern change" is going to happen, its going to happen late IMO. Still sticking to a wet milder winter, like I said in early November.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Yeah Frank absolutely. You were def all over that before most if not all of the prof mets. If you have a chance to cont your discussion with Isotherm(Tom) and/or Earthlight on the USAWx site I would love to know what there thoughts are on what Steve D points out about how the QBO is behaving with its slow decent back towards Neutral instead of of its more reflexive rapid descent following a peak like what was pointed out for Oct. Ill also be interested in what the Dec QBO value comes in at. Usually that number comes in around the end of the first week in Jan right? Frank where can I find the QBO values past and present? Do you have a link?
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Hector:
You may be right but you had nothing to base it on except a hunch.
Meaningless. Anyone can take a wild guess with nothing to back it up.
You may be right but you had nothing to base it on except a hunch.
Meaningless. Anyone can take a wild guess with nothing to back it up.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
HectorO wrote:Screw winter. Today feels great, I'm ready for spring after this beautiful day. Like I said in November, if the supposed "pattern change" is going to happen, its going to happen late IMO. Still sticking to a wet milder winter, like I said in early November.
Yeah your kind of full of it my friend. You may end up right, but not because you knew something others didnt.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Hector:
You may be right but you had nothing to base it on except a hunch.
Meaningless. Anyone can take a wild guess with nothing to back it up.
I could care less honestly what anyone thinks I based my so called "hunch" on. 99% of the time I post from my phone because about 20 hours a day I am never home between work and starting my own business, which is why I'm silent sometimes 2 weeks at a time. I don't have time to find out how to post maps or anything on a phone. Good to know that most of my "hunches" have been right. Please carry on.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:HectorO wrote:Screw winter. Today feels great, I'm ready for spring after this beautiful day. Like I said in November, if the supposed "pattern change" is going to happen, its going to happen late IMO. Still sticking to a wet milder winter, like I said in early November.
Yeah your kind of full of it my friend. You may end up right, but not because you knew something others didnt.
Once again I could care less please read the above. I'll remember the whole "you're full of it" next time anyone posts what their opinion of winter will be. Or next time someone whines about it "only being early January and I'll eat my words soon."
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Doc when I get home I'll give you some links. Earthlight has gone quiet the last two weeks. Tom is around, I'll see if he wants to chime in
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Hector I mean no disrespect at all, although I can see how what I posted before could be interpreted that way. I apologize for the phrasing of the comment. I guess Im just frustrated because I work so hard to come up with an idea and you simply follow a hunch. I feel like I may be going at this all wrong. I guess if your hunch is general enough one could be correct 99% of the time.
Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Dec 26, 2014 4:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Doc when I get home I'll give you some links. Earthlight has gone quiet the last two weeks. Tom is around, I'll see if he wants to chime in
Thanks Mucho appreciated
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
It's fine, as Doc said, we will live through milder winters and colder/snowier ones. There was a stretch where we got spoiled quite a bit.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
HectorO wrote:It's fine, as Doc said, we will live through milder winters and colder/snowier ones. There was a stretch where we got spoiled quite a bit.
Cant say I wont give you a told you so come March if Im correct.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:Hector I mean no disrespect at all, although I can see how what I posted before could be interpreted that way. I apologize for the phrasing of the comment. I guess Im just frustrated because I work so hard to come up with an idea and you simply follow a hunch. I feel like I may be going at this all wrong. I guess if your hunch is general enough one could be correct 99% of the time.
Doc, that friggin' QBO is f_____g up the whole machinery here.Frank has expounded on that one.
Hector's hunch is not a bad one just statistically wise.You always revert back to the mean and last year was a blowout snow year around these parts.Also, these early,early accumulating snows have a bad record for snowy winters.I think Hector had that figured in as well.
That period in the early to mid 2000's with four snowy winters in a row spoiled us all.
KCACO ( keep calm and carry on)
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:HectorO wrote:It's fine, as Doc said, we will live through milder winters and colder/snowier ones. There was a stretch where we got spoiled quite a bit.
Cant say I wont give you a told you so come March if Im correct.
Hope you're right LOL
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
One heck or mess can cover a whole season so until march I have hope
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
I believe this December has some of us, myself among them, like a bunch of drunk teenagers just looking for a fight. Hector I apologize for throwing those unripe bananas at you, it was uncalled for.
If something doesn't break for us soon I fear the worst. I may exile myself to OTI for the next week until cooler heads prevail.
Docstox I need a temp to fill in for me until New Years to head the Treasury and the Tourism Board. I need some time to clear my head.
If something doesn't break for us soon I fear the worst. I may exile myself to OTI for the next week until cooler heads prevail.
Docstox I need a temp to fill in for me until New Years to head the Treasury and the Tourism Board. I need some time to clear my head.
Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Got your back, CP.Since every Government Agency in OTI is in one room, it will be easy.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
No worries. Sorry for my words too. Pretty crazy how central Canada is hogging that old air. Even eastern Canada like Toronto and Montreal have been milder and wet.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Doc when I get home I'll give you some links. Earthlight has gone quiet the last two weeks. Tom is around, I'll see if he wants to chime in
Thanks Mucho appreciated
Doc as you requested. ..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
well after reading the previous posts I see we are all getting closer to the edge as December is likely going to bust big time. temps 2+* above normal and if the 29-30th doesn't work out then we end up with very little snow. so the odds seem against us for having an epic winter. what interests me is that we have several indicators (snow cover, west based el-nino, warm sst off the west coast and favorable sst in the atlantic which favors a -nao to name a few)coming into this winter overwhelmingly in our favor but one signal seems to override all the others(qbo). I guess it's similar to last year as the one signal (-epo) drove our pattern and we were rewarded with 60" of snow. when pondering this it amazes me how complex long range forecasting is(even mid range for that matter) and we need to give our long range forecasters some leeway. i mean how could they know which one would out weigh all the other signals. my question is how often does this happen(one indicator over riding all others)? as far as the rest of winter who knows but odds are we will see snow and maybe even more than average(I personally still think this will happen given all the aforementioned data). remember last year we got most of our snow in a 6 week period 48" from jan 1st until feb 15th. so while things look bleak now we still have time for a fun and descent winter. btw today was a beautiful day and if we don't get snow this winter I would want days like today. big wind and rain storms we can have in the other seasons.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
algae888 wrote:well after reading the previous posts I see we are all getting closer to the edge as December is likely going to bust big time. temps 2+* above normal and if the 29-30th doesn't work out then we end up with very little snow. so the odds seem against us for having an epic winter. what interests me is that we have several indicators (snow cover, west based el-nino, warm sst off the west coast and favorable sst in the atlantic which favors a -nao to name a few)coming into this winter overwhelmingly in our favor but one signal seems to override all the others(qbo). I guess it's similar to last year as the one signal (-epo) drove our pattern and we were rewarded with 60" of snow. when pondering this it amazes me how complex long range forecasting is(even mid range for that matter) and we need to give our long range forecasters some leeway. i mean how could they know which one would out weigh all the other signals. my question is how often does this happen(one indicator over riding all others)? as far as the rest of winter who knows but odds are we will see snow and maybe even more than average(I personally still think this will happen given all the aforementioned data). remember last year we got most of our snow in a 6 week period 48" from jan 1st until feb 15th. so while things look bleak now we still have time for a fun and descent winter. btw today was a beautiful day and if we don't get snow this winter I would want days like today. big wind and rain storms we can have in the other seasons.
From a logical standpoint, everything starts from the top before it gets to the bottom. First comes the Stratosphere then comes the Troposphere, where our weather hppens, so if you have a bad pattern in the Stratosphere of course it's going to be bad in the troposphere. Due to this uncommon behaviour of the QBO, we are seeing it effect the El Nino and the rest of our upper air pattern for that matter. Hopefully zonal winds in thr stratosphere turn westerly before it's too late.
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Frank_Wx wrote:sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Doc when I get home I'll give you some links. Earthlight has gone quiet the last two weeks. Tom is around, I'll see if he wants to chime in
Thanks Mucho appreciated
Doc as you requested. ..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index
Thanks Frank
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
algae888 wrote:well after reading the previous posts I see we are all getting closer to the edge as December is likely going to bust big time. temps 2+* above normal and if the 29-30th doesn't work out then we end up with very little snow. so the odds seem against us for having an epic winter. what interests me is that we have several indicators (snow cover, west based el-nino, warm sst off the west coast and favorable sst in the atlantic which favors a -nao to name a few)coming into this winter overwhelmingly in our favor but one signal seems to override all the others(qbo). I guess it's similar to last year as the one signal (-epo) drove our pattern and we were rewarded with 60" of snow. when pondering this it amazes me how complex long range forecasting is(even mid range for that matter) and we need to give our long range forecasters some leeway. i mean how could they know which one would out weigh all the other signals. my question is how often does this happen(one indicator over riding all others)? as far as the rest of winter who knows but odds are we will see snow and maybe even more than average(I personally still think this will happen given all the aforementioned data). remember last year we got most of our snow in a 6 week period 48" from jan 1st until feb 15th. so while things look bleak now we still have time for a fun and descent winter. btw today was a beautiful day and if we don't get snow this winter I would want days like today. big wind and rain storms we can have in the other seasons.
And like you said Al last year the -EPO was able to over ride other unfavorable teleconnections. Remmeber the AO and NAO was in a + state for most of the snow fall events we had for the time frame you mentioned above(Jan1st-Feb15th) The -EPO also did that for November of this year as well. The fact that we still had warm SST off our coast meant the storms for many of us along the coastal plain in Nov meant wet vs frozen, but temps were still well below normal as a whole. Looking at the current readings the EPO is tanking as we speak. An arctic invasions into the CONUS is on the way. Once it gets here we will see what all these s/w's really do. I still believe we are not done watching the 29th-30th time frame (see my notes in the other thread).
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Wow last nights long range Euro, was yet another dram, but probably that, 3-4th. I do think Frank mentioned that time frame, was showing a cutter past few days with a very high wind and rain event now it goes offshore and is all cold. Frank didn't u say this creamed cutter? Do you think this change will hold or do u think its just the models playing another long range trick on us?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Jman the models, many times the Euro, keep showing fantasy storms 8-10 days out. Fun to look at but not to be taken seriously until they are finally correct with one. Even if that happens if you throw enough fantasy stuff out there in the long range the models are bound to be right at least once.
And so the wait goes on as the days in December tick away. If I have time this week I may do a detail write up on the December prognosticator. My only reason for doing it will be to accentuate how it is usually correct to hopefully jinx it into being incorrect this year.
Yes if I have to resort to Vodoo I will. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
And so the wait goes on as the days in December tick away. If I have time this week I may do a detail write up on the December prognosticator. My only reason for doing it will be to accentuate how it is usually correct to hopefully jinx it into being incorrect this year.
Yes if I have to resort to Vodoo I will. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
CP- Oh and how it does - my time as the are numbered and dwindling fast unfortunately!!!
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Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0
Yeah 12z euro totally different shows cutter again with heavy rain and supposed high winds. That's why I said dream with the ooz but I misspelled it. Just wait and see what happens. At least I get another 4 day weekend next week.
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