Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[algae888]

cmc gives us a nice front end snow for Friday night....





before changing to rain. wouldn't even post this but with very cold air in place and a retreating HP we could see some overrunning snow esp inland. climo favors cold air damming and we will have a 1040+ HP just east of maine.

[docstox12]

NWS buying into this.Have me for snow Friday night, then snow to rain Saturday.Glad to get that 5 or 6 inches if it happens.

[Frank_Wx]

This is the perfect example of why we do not want a phase this time around for the 4third storm. The vort in the SW is strong enough.

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[Frank_Wx]

If the storm on the 4th does not cut...it means there was no phase which means it's either going to be Miller B or a SWFE. Euro this run was a SWFE

[Guest]

SWFE? Please translate..Thanks

[Frank_Wx]

SWFE?  Please translate..Thanks

Southwest flow event 

A storm that ejects out of the southwest US and matures as it moves east-northeast

[Guest]

Miller b and SWFE I would guess mean snow for us at least to start, based on the available cold?

[Frank_Wx]

Miller b and SWFE I would guess mean snow for us at least to start, based on the available cold?

No, not always a slam dunk. Depends on track of the storm.

[Frank_Wx]

Those who have followed know that I've been saying the end of December or early January will feature a pattern change. Dec. 30th looks to be the official day. No surprises there, now let's see if we can get a storm before the pattern goes under re-alignment mid-month as El Nino is poised to get going by then (but that's not official yet)

[Frank_Wx]

Gfs is now in agreement with euro on possible snowstorm 4th-5th

Some images

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[Frank_Wx]

There's 3 tracks this storm can take. There's two shown above that I drew in. The third is a cutter, which I'm beginning to doubt

[NjWeatherGuy]

Thread the needle event, the way things have been going right now id say it doesnt work out for us and we get a rain slop storm with snow well north, weve seen this ugly setup before and rarely does it work for 95. I dont like it.

[Frank_Wx]

I don't have a preference in track yet, though I can see how the "B" tracks has higher weight than A right now

[Guest]

We need the cold air to suppress it enough so it takes the A track Frank drew. It would be a kick in the ass if the cold air which suppressed the 29th/30th storm then doesn't suppress this one. But that's the way this "winter" has gone so far. We'll see.

[Guest]

I meant to post my Vegas comment in the Banter thread. Thanks to whoever moved it.

[amugs]

Here is the skinny going forward imo
If you are seeing weaker systems that a by product of the actual low level cold press with the PV getting established near Hudson Bay .
Jan 1 - 10 are colder than just a few days of below normal. 
You have to take 2 weeks at a time. 
You now have a NEG EPO and it's stays neg for the next 15 days. That matters in a big way. Need the pna to push positive showing nuetral to slight positive. As the models adjust to the cold air in the pattern so may the solutions. The way this does not cut is if the system is weaker ejecting out if the panhandle staying pos tilted and have it sneak E of the MISS. If the confluence is strong it will belly under. If the vortex ends up further N the ridge will pop and this will cut. 
Patience. 

Syo don't flip on the last phrase.
Lastly, the atmospheric changes that hopefully will be taking shape in our stratosphere will cause model mayhem and wild swings but they are taking place.

[Guest]

Here is the skinny going forward imo
If you are seeing weaker systems that a by product of the actual low level cold press with the PV getting established near Hudson Bay .
Jan 1 - 10 are colder than just a few days of below normal. 
You have to take 2 weeks at a time. 
You now have a NEG EPO and it's stays neg for the next 15 days. That matters in a big way. Need the pna to push positive showing nuetral to slight positive. As the models adjust to the cold air in the pattern so may the solutions. The way this does not cut is if the system is weaker ejecting out if the panhandle staying pos tilted and have it sneak E of the MISS. If the confluence is strong it will belly under. If the vortex ends up further N the ridge will pop and this will cut. 
Patience. 

Syo don't flip on the last phrase.
Lastly, the atmospheric changes that hopefully will be taking shape in our stratosphere will cause model mayhem and wild swings but they are taking place.

Nice analysis Mugs. Thanks.

[amugs]

Here is what I mean by my last post - support!!

WOW

[Frank_Wx]

00z model runs update for Jan 5th storm

GFS, CMC, EURO all bring the southern vort east and develop a coastal storm to bring light to moderate accumulations to the area (depending on which model you look at). There is no cutter.

Goodnight.

[SoulSingMG]

00z model runs update for Jan 5th storm

GFS, CMC, EURO all bring the southern vort east and develop a coastal storm to bring light to moderate accumulations to the area (depending on which model you look at). There is no cutter.

Goodnight.

"There is no cutter. Goodnight." Lol

I love when Frank is frank. And I said closing that last storm thread would light a fire under this Winter. Now let is s____w.

[docstox12]

NWS, at this juncture, looking warmer for me.Now, rain and snow and in the 40's Saturday.Guess they like the more west solution.Way too early to even think about the final track.

[sroc4]

Here is the skinny going forward imo
If you are seeing weaker systems that a by product of the actual low level cold press with the PV getting established near Hudson Bay .
Jan 1 - 10 are colder than just a few days of below normal. 
You have to take 2 weeks at a time. 
You now have a NEG EPO and it's stays neg for the next 15 days. That matters in a big way. Need the pna to push positive showing nuetral to slight positive. As the models adjust to the cold air in the pattern so may the solutions. The way this does not cut is if the system is weaker ejecting out if the panhandle staying pos tilted and have it sneak E of the MISS. If the confluence is strong it will belly under. If the vortex ends up further N the ridge will pop and this will cut. 
Patience. 

Syo don't flip on the last phrase.
Lastly, the atmospheric changes that hopefully will be taking shape in our stratosphere will cause model mayhem and wild swings but they are taking place.

Preach on brotha!! Amen!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjto02iDNZA

[jmanley32]

The 06z Para GFS is ll to familiar like last year all the snow suppressed to our south in to VA uggg

[Frank_Wx]

Now that we're seeing the arctic PV splitting due to the impressive 10 mb SSW over Eurasia over these last 10 days or so, you'll see it take residence over the Hudson Bay and bring down arctic air from Canada. The -EPO, or ridge in the northeast Pacific into Alaska, will help usher that cold into the east. 

The storm system on thr 4th has trended from a cutter to a southern slider. Why? The polar jet is still very fast, so the short waves are having a tough time ejecting out of it to prompt a phase with the southern vort, the key player in our 4th-5th storm. 

So without a phase, this becomes more of a SWFE (Southwest Flow Event) but how far north will determine how much snow we'll see. If the PV is too strong, everthing will be shunned south and we see nothing but cold temps. There also remains the chance this storm tracks to our west and we get rain or rain to snow, but the models haven't shown that yet. 

Please refer to the graphic on the previous page to see both possible storm tracks.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS at 12z today still insisting on a minor to moderate snowfall for the weekend.

[sroc4]

GFS at 12z today still insisting on a minor to moderate snowfall for the weekend.

Given the pattern establishing itself as we speak I am concerned with a southern slider soln as we get closer.  Strong arctic HP is going to be a theme over the next 10-14days.  This one should be an interesting one to follow though.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea, just keep in mind that the potential exists for a snowstorm but the odds are equally there for rain as well. The GEFS and GGEM are cutters, so it's definitely a system too far out to take a model run seriously at this point.

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