Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:53 pm

What did the para GFS do near the end, looked like a beautiful coastal coming up and then it is pushed due south off the coast, I assume the HP is too strong? I know this is way off but why did that happen, and assumingly if the storm still happened pattern could change and allow it to come up yes?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What did the para GFS do near the end, looked like a beautiful coastal coming up and then it is pushed due south off the coast, I assume the HP is too strong? I know this is way off but why did that happen, and assumingly if the storm still happened pattern could change and allow it to come up yes?

Energy didn't phase enough. Pieces are flying all over the place. That storm could be an overrunning event, I just hope it remains cold enough. I think it will.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:04 pm

and that pushed it back south? Over running event is fine with me (big coastal be better though lol), looks like we should have some good things to talk about sat. It appears to me that the temps are much colder than expected and long range 10 day forecasts do not show very warm temps.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:37 pm

Jman the EURO Ens at 12z actually consolidated all the energy and formed a large coastal system

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 10891802_10204766396492268_1442765631901438236_n

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 10891802_10204766396492268_1442765631901438236_n

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:38 pm

With the +PNA spike projected for next weekend, the time period Iv'e been mentioning, there definitely is a signal for a storm system then. We'll see how this plays out over the weekend.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:21 pm

Yeah Frank isn't that similar to the the low locations I posted above, showing a coastal but the spread is pretty big? The Euro had a nice snow map too, but obviously early.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:45 am

Wow 00z euro has a huge storm in long range but it cuts just basically right over us leaving huge snows nw of city plenty of time but I so hope this stays further south from looks if temps it won't have to go to much further south for us all to get what we have been wait for.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:02 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow 00z euro has a huge storm in long range but it cuts just basically right over us leaving huge snows nw of city plenty of time but I so hope this stays further south from looks if temps it won't have to go to much further south for us all to get what we have been wait for.

Not a cutter, more like an inland runner. The ensembles have it off the coast. Man, I hope this pans out. Looks like a huge storm signal with a western ridge.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:20 am

I was just going to post that the ensembles are mostly offshore. So u have some decent vibes about this even 7 days out frank? Def go be a fun sat.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:23 am

Cmc has a bunch of smaller systems that come through but one lp that in similar position but offshore. Snow map is nice for cmc.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:46 am

Hope this sucker pans out!!!! From DT

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 Index

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:53 am

CMC good position onthe OP

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 GemglbPR00.31

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 11:39 am

This is interesting and what affects it will have on our weather going forward I do not know BUT the last one at this level caused the PV to consolidate at the stratospheric level - a G3 storm is pretty strong.
This dam solar activity is not helping our winter season it has to chill out for a few weeks!!

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/27781194/strong-geomagnetic-storm-hits-earth

by **algae888** Wed Jan 07, 2015 11:57 am

did anyone see the para GFS weenie run today. I can't post them on my phonebut wow what a storm for next weak

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:06 pm

algae888 wrote:did anyone see the para GFS weenie run today. I can't post them on my phonebut wow what a storm for next weak

YES Al - lets hope it nails one for a change - that -EPO and +PNA big spike is really nice - still no help on the Atlantic side though.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f213

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f213

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:18 pm

I thought that their was a sign of blocking on Atlantic side

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:30 pm

amugs wrote:This is interesting and what affects it will have on our weather going forward I do not know BUT the last one at this level caused the PV to consolidate at the stratospheric level - a G3 storm is pretty strong.
This dam solar activity is not helping our winter season it has to chill out for a few weeks!!

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/27781194/strong-geomagnetic-storm-hits-earth

The damn sun is ruining our winter. We should blow the thing out of the sky. Plus it makes driving in winter difficult with all the glare it causes. Throw in skin cancer and the fact it melts snow and what good is the damn thing.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:38 pm

Lol cp.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:40 pm

I saw an upper level map on another forum and it showed some blocking developing near Greenland for the storm next week. If that's true it would be a huge boost.

by **essexcountypete** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:50 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

The damn sun is ruining our winter. We should blow the thing out of the sky. Plus it makes driving in winter difficult with all the glare it causes. Throw in skin cancer and the fact it melts snow and what good is the damn thing.

You're not in politics by any chance, are you? Smile

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I saw an upper level map on another forum and it showed some blocking developing near Greenland for the storm next week. If that's true it would be a huge boost.

yeah I thougt I heard that too

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:47 pm

Is the 12z para gfs all fantasy or could we really see a storm of that magnitude? I know snow maps mean nothing but most of our area misses out on more than 6 inches but western Ct gets 2 feet? I assume its just tooo far out to begin to even worry about totals and temps.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:48 pm

12z Euro, so we have something on all 3 models 8 to 9 days out thats pretty good. Long time to go though.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 12z_eu10

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:23 pm

12z Euro goes boom for us with that PNA ++ Ridge

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f198

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 30 Post-25-0-55649800-1420656409

Folks we have lift off - and the overunning event before this from Mon into Tuesday is a nice appetizer IMO.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:27 pm

Its great a nice storm is showing up but its over a week away been here before but its nice to see because this winter so far is Blah

by **Grselig** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:This is interesting and what affects it will have on our weather going forward I do not know BUT the last one at this level caused the PV to consolidate at the stratospheric level - a G3 storm is pretty strong.
This dam solar activity is not helping our winter season it has to chill out for a few weeks!!

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/27781194/strong-geomagnetic-storm-hits-earth

The damn sun is ruining our winter. We should blow the thing out of the sky. Plus it makes driving in winter difficult with all the glare it causes. Throw in skin cancer and the fact it melts snow and what good is the damn thing.

That's murder my friend. Be careful, the Sun has some pretty powerful allies.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:48 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Its great a nice storm is showing up but its over a week away been here before but its nice to see because this winter so far is Blah

Skins true but this is not DECEMBER type Crap Pattern we experienced
Here we have the following being depicted

1. -EPO
2. +PNA
3. Trough in East
4. PV in Central/Eastern Canada - no cold source in the DEC - was but in the Arctic - fresh source of cold air and lots of it
5. AO going neg - favorable - was + most of Dec
6 Climo

and

Weak based block in Greenland but it will work as of now. Archimbault signal/set up

We shall see but I do like the pattern and Frank has eluded to this time frame as well!!

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