Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[skinsfan1177]

What's going on for Monday and Tuesday thought their was a storm

[jmanley32]

It looks like cmc and euro have a small over running storm on 13th (Monday) and then possible coastal on 15/16th however Euro moved it well offshore now, lots of time things will change. But this hopefully will not become a trend, CMC is now only one holding onto a closer to shore weak LP.

[skinsfan1177]

It looks like cmc and euro have a small over running storm on 13th (Monday) and then possible coastal on 15/16th however Euro moved it well offshore now, lots of time things will change.  But this hopefully will not become a trend, CMC is now only one holding onto a closer to shore weak LP.

Ok thanks jman Im hoping for something like others have said positive signs for this timeframe. also hope temps will be good for my area

[jmanley32]

The models will flip flip, the euro will not have to come that far NW to give us a good dumping, it usually does this this far out. as for GFS, it wont be any good until 14th when it is in full effect and CMC, well its the CMC lol.

[Guest]

This issued by NWS Upton for me here on Long Island. Could our winter fortunes be changing?

A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[jmanley32]

Jesus syo, but remember that's based soley off the GFS which is all outta wack right now.

[jmanley32]

Here is mine, a bit further inland so all snow : ) Don't like that freezing rain part though.


Monday
A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night
A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday
A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday
A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[jmanley32]

Even the NWS disco says that next week is a very hard forecast, so do not hug the models (note to myself lol).

GFS shows a ice storm early next week mon/tues, that would not be good.

[SoulSingMG]

Even the NWS disco says that next week is a very hard forecast, so do not hug the models (note to myself lol).

GFS shows a ice storm early next week mon/tues, that would not be good.

This would be an interior NJ, upstate NY issue JMAN. Ice storms do NOT happen here in the city. They just don't come to fruition here.

[jmanley32]

I am not in the city, im about 15 or so miles north of the city I have experienced a few light ice storms. I know they do not happen in the city "heat island". Anyways 18z GFS and para show monday rain, wtf, I really think we need to discount the GFS and para until the 14th.

And if you look back a page my local forecast from NWS mentions freezing rain twice. And I said it would be a bad thing, meaning where ever it happens never said it would be a bad thing in NYC. Just sayin.

[SoulSingMG]

I am not in the city, im about 15 or so miles north of the city I have experienced a few light ice storms. I know they do not happen in the city "heat island". Anyways 18z GFS and para show monday rain, wtf, I really think we need to discount the GFS and para until the 14th.

And if you look back a page my local forecast from NWS mentions freezing rain twice.  And I said it would be a bad thing, meaning where ever it happens never said it would be a bad thing in NYC.  Just sayin.

Yeah I hear you. But even in the Bronx, So. Westchester. They don't occur like they do in other places. And it's a good thing, trust me. Growing up in New Hampshire and seeing the devastation they bring, you don't wanna live in an ice storm-prone area. Like I mean an inch of ice accretion...making a town look like a bomb went off.

[Guest]

They absolutely do happen here on LI. I remember a few doozy's. In fact I would argue that based on our proximity to the ocean a warm layer just above the surface is more common here than inland.

[SoulSingMG]

They absolutely do happen here on LI.  I remember a few doozy's.  In fact I would argue that based on our proximity to the ocean a warm layer just above the surface is more common here than inland.

They do, but on rare occurrences I think. I believe the last major ice storm on Long Island was in 1978. If you look toward New England, Upstate, Quebec, etc. you'll find several major ice events over the last 10-20 years.

Anyway this all most likely belongs on the banter thread (sorry guys!) -- let's just be happy we most likely will not see an ice storm here in the metro area ;-)

[skinsfan1177]

I thought the one thing we had going for us is cold air in place. Also thought things are heading in the right direction. So we have two events next week its just a matter of track not much talk yet with these two possibilities

[Frank_Wx]

It's no surprise the models have lost the coastal storm threat for next week. After all, this is the winter of 2014-2015 so not much has gone our way, and the models especially have had a horrid season compared to other years. However, forecasting the weather is not about reading models verbatim but more so about interpreting what they say and whether or not they make sense with the overall 500mb pattern.

12z EURO



1. Large ridge spike in the west due to broad-scaled trough over the Aleutians. Additionally, ridging over Alaska into the Arctic calls for a -EPO/+PNA couplet by the middle of the week next week.

2. Positive heights pressing down over Greenland brings potential for blocking (something we have not seen much this winter) which would: A. keep the PV over the Hudson and B. force northern s/w energy to possibly dig into the CONUS and phase in with the southern s/w energy.

3. The EURO model clearly defines where the southern s/w energy will be Wednesday morning of next week, over Texas. However, some energy lags behind the main southern s/w piece and there is no northern stream interaction.

4. The main PV is situated east of Greenland with a piece of it located over the Hudson. The block to the north is helping to keep it in that position and not scoot away like the GFS model suggests.



Continuing into Friday afternoon of next week, you notice H5 becomes convoluted.

1. The defined pressure falls over the Carolina's indicates to me that a potent coastal storm wants to develop and the pieces into getting one are there. However, with the western ridge trying to ride over the energy, nothing significant comes about it.

2. The broad-scale trough that we saw in the previous graphic over the Aleutians now elongates even further into the EPO/PNA regions to promote negative heights. In turn, the flow out west turns zonal and the Pacific Ridge has now pushed east. This is not something we want to see if you're looking for an east coast storm. You need the west to stay configured how it was earlier in the week with the -EPO/+PNA combo so the northern stream energy phases with the southern s/w, the eastern trough amplifies and cyclogenesis occurs.

3. I did not mark it on this graphic, but also notice how the PV that was over the Hudson now splits and the upper air anomalies turn progressive.

12z GFS PARA



The GFS is seeing this evolution a little differently.

1. Tuesday morning of next week, the GFS suggests the ridge unfavorably orients itself from SW to NE which is likely due to the Aleutian trough spreading east.

2. The potent southern energy embeds itself into the SW CONUS because of the unfavorably tilted western ridge. We have seen this before this season where the Pacific Jet becomes too strong and the western ridge is unable to maintain N-S composure.



You see that the GFS shows an H25/150 kt jet streak on the NE quadrant of the western ridge, with an even more impressive/stronger jet streak running through the central Pacific. This is not something you typically see in +ENSO regimes and one of the main reasons why we have been unable to see meaningful storms impact our area, even though the cold air has been provided.

Summary

I'm not sure which model has the better handle on the upper air pattern, but we should hope it is the EURO. At least the EURO takes the southern s/w energy east and we could possibly see a northern vort break off of the PV and phase into the main energy. Whereas, the GFS keeps it west and turns the upper air pattern very progressive so nothing really comes together. That being said, both models show the collapsing -EPO/+PNA duo and that is not a good trend. If this is truly the case, and it very well could be given how the Pac. Jet has responded this season, I would not bet on a storm happening next weekend. Timing is also critical because if the western ridge stays west a little longer, that would promote phasing on the EURO model. As long as the storm phases before the ridge begins to march east, we'll have a chance for a storm. Given we're still about 1 week out, look for these positive trends. If they don't show up, then there will not be a storm. But we'll see.

Lastly, I know there have been some positive signs in the LR with the MJO/Tropical Forcing and 10 mb Stratosphere splitting again, but until these forecasts reflect on the models (mainly H5) for a consistent period of time, no one should get their hopes up on high latitude blocking developing. Though I still think in February we'll get at least a taste of it simply because the analogs I looked at in my updated winter forecast showed a -NAO sometime Feb/Mar. Hopefully the storm next week shows better trends through the weekend.

Obviously I will see you all at the get together on Saturday and we'll talk some more

[amugs]

Great write up Frank and we shall see. The dam PAC JET has been a great thorn in our side this winter - as soon as we have something going such as the -EPO and +PNA it gets crushed, decimated by at massive jet.

Would like to know if the QBO is the reason behind this cause like you said this is not acting like +ENSO pattern. The Atlantic has been crappy all year and is improving slightly. Somewhat perplexing.

Time will tell hope the overrunning event Mon into Tuesday can bring a 1-3" event

[Frank_Wx]

Great write up Frank and we shall see. The dam PAC JET has been a great thorn in our side this winter - as soon as we have something going such as the -EPO and +PNA it gets crushed, decimated by at massive jet.

Would like to know if the QBO is the reason behind this cause like you said this is not acting like +ENSO pattern. The Atlantic has been crappy all year and is improving slightly. Somewhat perplexing.

Time will tell hope the overrunning event Mon into Tuesday can bring a 1-3" event

It's annoying. It really pisses me off mainly because it has been there ALL winter. I have a bad feeling it will not go away in time for the storm next weekend.

[jmanley32]

Not what I wanted to hear but great writeup and giving it to us straight Frank. What about the 00z Euro it had a huge hit, so is that the phasing and all the pieces coming together right like you mention above?

[Frank_Wx]

Not what I wanted to hear but great writeup and giving it to us straight Frank. What about the 00z Euro it had a huge hit, so is that the phasing and all the pieces coming together right like you mention above?

The EURO has been trending poorly since yesterday's 12z run. Even last night's 00z run was just a 996 mb storm which is a far cry from what was being depicted 2 days ago. Clearly the energy is getting strung out more and more on each model run. Hopefully these bad trends turn around and we see something positive over the weekend. MJO going into phase 7 may help us out in keeping the mean ridge out west

[jmanley32]

Well the snow map verbatim last night was pretty high. But I guess this far out that means squat.

[Frank_Wx]

Well the snow map verbatim last night was pretty high.  But I guess this far out that means squat.

Yea, you can not go by snow maps to know if the storm trended poorly or better. Gotta look at H5.

[algae888]

gfs takes a step in the right direction...


00z

18z

[algae888]

h5

00z

18z

[jmanley32]

ooz runs have the overrunning event much wetter but is temps a issue for coastal areas?  Also the chance for a bigger coastal came back most pronounced on Euro, GFS too. And now CMC has lost the LP lol.  I would much rather CMC lose it than Euro and GFS.  Could this be a sign that things may go back more in favor for us we shall see.

[nutleyblizzard]

The 6z GFS runs this morning has peaked my interest. The over running event early next week has trended colder, while on the Para for late next week shows a 982mb bomb in the gulf of Maine! That run came very close to clobbering our area. Very interesting week of weather tracking coming up!

[amugs]

The 6z GFS runs this morning has peaked my interest. The over running event early next week has trended colder, while on the Para for late next week shows a 982mb bomb in the gulf of Maine! That run came very close to clobbering our area. Very interesting week of weather tracking coming up!

Trends in the right direction so the 12z runs today are going to have to stay steady or improve in a good way - just saw this as well - can't wait until the Para takes over completely and will be on par with the euro if not better
6Z GFS Mon-Tues

Euro hr 93

Euro hr 96 by hr 102 it is light



EURO - Fri


A frickin hair away!!!!!

[skinsfan1177]

Does it look cold enough for the coast

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