Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

by **Grselig** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:This is interesting and what affects it will have on our weather going forward I do not know BUT the last one at this level caused the PV to consolidate at the stratospheric level - a G3 storm is pretty strong.
This dam solar activity is not helping our winter season it has to chill out for a few weeks!!

http://www.myfoxny.com/story/27781194/strong-geomagnetic-storm-hits-earth

The damn sun is ruining our winter. We should blow the thing out of the sky. Plus it makes driving in winter difficult with all the glare it causes. Throw in skin cancer and the fact it melts snow and what good is the damn thing.

That's murder my friend. Be careful, the Sun has some pretty powerful allies.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:48 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Its great a nice storm is showing up but its over a week away been here before but its nice to see because this winter so far is Blah

Skins true but this is not DECEMBER type Crap Pattern we experienced
Here we have the following being depicted

1. -EPO
2. +PNA
3. Trough in East
4. PV in Central/Eastern Canada - no cold source in the DEC - was but in the Arctic - fresh source of cold air and lots of it
5. AO going neg - favorable - was + most of Dec
6 Climo

and

Weak based block in Greenland but it will work as of now. Archimbault signal/set up

We shall see but I do like the pattern and Frank has eluded to this time frame as well!!

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:57 pm

More support for next week
Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 31 F192

by Guest Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:46 pm

Stop trying to get us all excited. If I was a rational person I wouldn't even pay attention till at least Sunday morning. Something tells me though it's destiny that we have a storm to look at for our get together Sat. And maybe an overunning event as an app!!!! Giddy up.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:26 pm

amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Its great a nice storm is showing up but its over a week away been here before but its nice to see because this winter so far is Blah

Skins true but this is not DECEMBER type Crap Pattern we experienced
Here we have the following being depicted

1. -EPO
2. +PNA
3. Trough in East
4. PV in Central/Eastern Canada - no cold source in the DEC - was but in the Arctic - fresh source of cold air and lots of it
5. AO going neg - favorable - was + most of Dec
6 Climo

and

Weak based block in Greenland but it will work as of now. Archimbault signal/set up

We shall see but I do like the pattern and Frank has eluded to this time frame as well!! Im excited amugs believe me when I say it. Great Point by the way couldn't agree more.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 5:47 pm

18z para GFS huge storm vanished WOW, not even a trace of anything, what happened?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 5:55 pm

FWIW old GFS has a storm but 999mb not 970mb like the para had at 12z. Just do not know what to think about these GFS models.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:41 pm

Its too far out still to do real analysis. I'll wait till Saturday when we meet to give my initial thoughts.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:09 pm

Sounds like a fair plan Frank, it is too far out I gotta remember that, so much will change, hopefully for the better.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:18z para GFS huge storm vanished WOW, not even a trace of anything, what happened?

Para is a mess until the gfs is gone it will be this way.

One thing that is very good but astonishing to me that BOTH models are showing a block albeit weak in nature over Greenland Along with the AO and PNA in the right direction for us.

One other point the sun solar geomagnetic storm that took place last night may not have the profound affect as it did weather pattern wise and from some reading up it does not usually affect the weather patterns if it is just a magnetic st.orm which this is looking to be - may have dodged a bullet here.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:28 pm

The magnetic storm could have also messed with satellites thus messing with models possibly.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:06 pm

Looks like things are gonna be very active starting Monday, there is precip of varying type and intensity all the way through Thursday night on weather underground.

by Guest Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:47 pm

I wish we could take about 6 to 8 degrees from tonights lows and "bank" them to use to subtract from our highs next week to keep us in the upper 20's when the moisture gets here.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:53 pm

Next week we get active storm/precip wise mon- tues possible overrunning snow and Thursday- fri bigger storm possibility. Exciting times ahead.

by **sabamfa** Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:55 pm

How does Tuesday look in terms of driving conditions? I have a doctors appointment and am, for once, hoping for no snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 08, 2015 12:02 am

sabamfa wrote:How does Tuesday look in terms of driving conditions? I have a doctors appointment and am, for once, hoping for no snow.

What time? There's a threat for rain or snow showers that day from an overrunning system but looks pretty light for now.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 08, 2015 5:47 am

Wow both gfs and cmc lost 15th storm but euro comes in with a certain type of monster that likes to attack foreign Asian countries : ) the other 2 losing the storm though not good but that often happens only to come back later. I so hope the euro is right.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 08, 2015 6:00 am

That's exactly why I don't really get to excited 8 days out

by **sabamfa** Thu Jan 08, 2015 6:12 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sabamfa wrote:How does Tuesday look in terms of driving conditions? I have a doctors appointment and am, for once, hoping for no snow.

What time? There's a threat for rain or snow showers that day from an overrunning system but looks pretty light for now.

Morning. Like between 930-1130.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:14 am

The long range has a lot of freezing rain in the forecast for my area right now, that's not a good, although that rarely happens, I only recall one icing event maybe 5 years ago that made it impossible to get to my car, it was a nightmare. Actually a funny story, it was like a ice rink on side streets but the main roads were ok. My wife and I tried to walk but fell numerous times, my wife (not funny) hurt her wrist and by the time we got to where we had to walk uphill a bit a car was sliding with its brakes on towards us so I had no choice but to sit and slide down the hill away from the car, I ended up partly underneath a parked car, at that point I said f...it I am calling out of work! I was soaked and miserable, plus I had to give up a vacation day. Snow I can deal with, ice is just impossible to get around in safely.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:43 am

Lets hope the GEFS come to fruition from the 20th on and it has been great so far this season in the long range

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Post-90-0-83382200-1420724843

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Post-90-0-83382200-1420724843

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 31 Post-90-0-06798800-1420724859

Nao going negative and a split flow

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:49 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow both gfs and cmc lost 15th storm but euro comes in with a certain type of monster that likes to attack foreign Asian countries : ) the other 2 losing the storm though not good but that often happens only to come back later. I so hope the euro is right.

If only one model holds on to the storm I'm happy it's the euro. But no worries. I'd almost rather have the other models lose the storm now and bring it back slowly over the next few days.

We're so thirstly for a storm it's easy to get invested in each model run, but at the moment, and maybe more now than at other time in recent history, the gfs is whacked and it should be taken with a full shaker of salt.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 08, 2015 12:25 pm

The GFS and Para GFS both bring back the storm for late next week but well south of the area. The Para GFS shows the storm down by the bahamas! Another run another solution.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 08, 2015 12:30 pm

Yeah I don't buy the GFS or para right now, it will be online just in time to show the storm that will be the next day lol. Its supposed to go live the 14th I believe. CMC has 3-6 for the 13th!

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:38 pm

At least we have something interesting to track.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:49 pm

What's going on for Monday and Tuesday thought their was a storm

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:53 pm

It looks like cmc and euro have a small over running storm on 13th (Monday) and then possible coastal on 15/16th however Euro moved it well offshore now, lots of time things will change. But this hopefully will not become a trend, CMC is now only one holding onto a closer to shore weak LP.

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