Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:25 pm

I want a pic of your purple legs ace lol, I hope your not serious.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:59 pm

Anyone wanna take a road trip?
http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/oymyakon-arctic-circle

by **GreyBeard** Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:49 pm

sroc4 wrote:Anyone wanna take a road trip?
http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/oymyakon-arctic-circle

Wow, they must be some hard core people. Did you scroll thru the pics? Looks like they live in tents affraid

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:19 pm

Alex mentioned this tonight... looks cool...

http://www.lyndonams.com/nesc2015/4586030544

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:36 pm

This really sux, where is this very light precip, its raining like crazy for hours, and pretty heavy soundings on radar. I only take one positive out of this is that I get a free car wash .

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:This really sux, where is this very light precip, its raining like crazy for hours, and pretty heavy soundings on radar. I only take one positive out of this is that I get a free car wash .

Maybe you mis-understood, but this was expected. The only time the precip. was expected to be light was when it was cold enough this morning to support freezing rain. Models were consistent on bringing in heavy precip. in the afternoon when temps. warmed up

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:50 pm

Not sure if this is really wx banter but more natural events information. CT has had numerous earthquakes today including a 3.3 that's was felt all up and down eastern CT. WOW

by **Math23x7** Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:57 pm

The GFS officially gets replaced at 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, on its final night, the "Old" GFS shows a coating of snow for NYC tomorrow lol!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p36.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150114+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area#

by **Math23x7** Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:58 pm

Quietace, since the GFS got replaced today, I looked back and saw this post of yours from March 2013 after the forecast for significant snow for DC busted:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t45-petition-to-us-gov-to-replace-gfs

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:08 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Quietace, since the GFS got replaced today, I looked back and saw this post of yours from March 2013 after the forecast for significant snow for DC busted:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t45-petition-to-us-gov-to-replace-gfs

Mike you Rock for remembering this post and even better for finding it. Ace I am 100% positive it was your petition that did the trick..lol

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 14, 2015 6:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Quietace, since the GFS got replaced today, I looked back and saw this post of yours from March 2013 after the forecast for significant snow for DC busted:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t45-petition-to-us-gov-to-replace-gfs

Mike you Rock for remembering this post and even better for finding it. Ace I am 100% positive it was your petition that did the trick..lol

Wow two years ago haha... Pretty much the upgrade did everything but 4dvar.....Which is still needed......badly

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:45 pm

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Quietace, since the GFS got replaced today, I looked back and saw this post of yours from March 2013 after the forecast for significant snow for DC busted:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t45-petition-to-us-gov-to-replace-gfs

Mike you Rock for remembering this post and even better for finding it. Ace I am 100% positive it was your petition that did the trick..lol
Wow two years ago haha... Pretty much the upgrade did everything but 4dvar.....Which is still needed......badly

I thought the upgraded GFS has 4dvar?

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:22 pm

What's 4dvar?

by **amugs** Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:48 pm

[url=Kepert1.pdf]Kepert1.pdf[/url]
[url=gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/...8/.../Kepert1.pdf]gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/...8/.../Kepert1.pdf[/url]
it is a better foreca sting co.puter algorithm tool and theas pageso of the pdf explains it well in simple terms. I thought it had this as well.

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Quietace, since the GFS got replaced today, I looked back and saw this post of yours from March 2013 after the forecast for significant snow for DC busted:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t45-petition-to-us-gov-to-replace-gfs

Mike you Rock for remembering this post and even better for finding it. Ace I am 100% positive it was your petition that did the trick..lol
Wow two years ago haha... Pretty much the upgrade did everything but 4dvar.....Which is still needed......badly

I thought the upgraded GFS has 4dvar?

I'm close to 100% certain it did not
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-46gfs_cca.htm

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:What's 4dvar?

The more skillful Data assimilation method for the EURO, GGEM, NAVGEM, UKMET etc...
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/PUBLI/DATA_ASSIM_Prague/NUMERICAL%20WEATHER%20PREDICTION/Oral/S%20Laroche.pdf

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:08 am

stands for 4D variance I believe.

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:17 am

The Weather and Climate Summit is happening as we speak as TWC's Dale Eck is analyzing last night's 0Z suite.

But at 10:30, Paul Kocin will speak about Winter Weather Forecasting. Here is the link to watch it live:

http://www.stormcenter.com/wxcsummit/live.html

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:33 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I'm not attacking anyone here.

I know you don't want to hear it sroc4 and this potential for Sunday night and Monday is only recent but you cannot deny the fact that we have gotten almost ZERO snow so far this winter. PLUS it's been really freakin' cold (way below normal) for almost 2 straight weeks now and the only significant storms we get during these 2 below normal weeks are on the days it gets warm and we get rain only to go into the ice box afterwards again. THE WINTER SO FAR SUCKS BALLS!! and for anyone to deny this or keep saying wait, wait, wait is frustrating. I'm not blaming anyone, but I'm pretty damn sure I speak for 95% of the people reading this.

Your right I cannot deny that we have ALMOST zero snow and its really cold, but Its all about perspective I guess. This time of year I have no prob with the cold, but thats just me. I am no doubt, upside down, inside out, left, right, and all around frustrated with the lack of snow like 95% of us on here; however, I dont think you speak for 95% of the people on here. The content of which you speak I agree with whole heartedly. It the manner in which you deliver that is something to be desired at times. We will get there when we get there. And if when we get there if its not what you expected well thems the breaks. I nor any other human can do anything about it. I realize your venting frustrations which are 100% valid and again trust me I am with you. Why not look for the positive instead of b--ch about the neg...all the time? Thats all Im saying. I hope you know I mean no disrespect my friend.

by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:39 pm

I've been looking for the positive since the early November storm. I can't find it. And I don't take offense to anything you or anyone else on here says. I also think I can be blunt at times but it's not meant to be attacking or disrespectful just real.

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:41 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I've been looking for the positive since the early November storm. I can't find it. And I don't take offense to anything you or anyone else on here says. I also think I can be blunt at times but it's not meant to be attacking or disrespectful just real.

I am going to do my best to allow you to express yourself however you see fit without me commenting on it every time so long as it remains respectful to myself and others.

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:35 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I've been looking for the positive since the early November storm. I can't find it. And I don't take offense to anything you or anyone else on here says. I also think I can be blunt at times but it's not meant to be attacking or disrespectful just real.

Syosnow94, you mentioned at the meetup that you were born in 1972 which means you probably remember the period from 1984 to 1992 when there were no snowstorms greater than 10" in NYC. And even after that period, there have been several winter with much below normal snowfall (i.e late 90s, 2001-02, 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2011-12)
The older members on this forum can probably tell you how to early-mid 70s did not have much snow (including the record low of 2.8" during the 1972-73 season).

I'm 24 and the first winter I really followed the weather was the winter of 1998-99. While below normal in snowfall, it did have three breathtaking events (at least from my perspective as an 8-year old). Christmas Eve 1998 (after nearly three weeks of relative warmth), January 8th, 1999, and March 15th, 1999 (the first two were light snow events, the latter was a moderate snow event which featured a school closing for me). And 1999-2000 was below normal as well but I remember three events that winter, the first and third being light snowfall, the second being moderate snowfall (although I was sick during that storm which was a bummer). These events were January 20th, 2000, January 25th, 2000 and April 9th, 2000). And as bad as the winter of 2001-02 was (only 3.5") we did have the nice January 19th, 2002 event (which brought snow during the Patriots/Raiders playoff game in New England aka "The Tuck Rule Game"). 2006-07 didn't have much in the way of snow as it became known for two ice storms (one on Valentine's Day and one right before St. Patrick's Day, the later of which was a snow changing to sleet/freezing rain). 2007-08 to me came down to one storm on February 22nd, 2008 when 6" of snow fell in CPK before the mixed precipitation came in (and it gave Floral Park 8"). 2011-12 was a warm winter, but there were two decent events, The October 29th, 2011 snowstorm and the January 21st, 2012 snow/sleet event. As for this winter, I enjoyed the mini-snow band that went right on top of where I live last Friday giving me 2" instead of the expected 1" of snow.

The bottom line is this: Not every winter will please the snow lovers, but every winter has at least one snow event people will remember. Even if the 3.2" in CPK is all it gets the whole winter, when you average out this winter and last winter, you end up with 30.3" of snow which is above the seasonal snow average.

As Joe Bastardi would say, you should enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got.

by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:13 pm

I get the fact that we only average around 24 inches here and we've been spoiled the last few years. I GET IT! But the fact that most of us were expecting another "humdinger" of a year only to so far have squat, sucks. I honestly think that with modern technology we are all able to communicate on here about all the different chances of storms we would not have even known about a few years ago; This allows us even more opportunity to be disappointed when we miss out. Math you are the greatest. We spoke at the get together and you know where I'm coming from. I shoot from the hip and tell it like it is. NO ONE ON HERE SHOULD EVER FEEL ATTACKED OR DISRESPECTED OR TEASED BY MY POSTS. We're all snow lovers who love weather. Most of you guys use science and are patient. I use emotion and am impatient.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:11 pm

I still miss 2009-2010

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I get the fact that we only average around 24 inches here and we've been spoiled the last few years. I GET IT! But the fact that most of us were expecting another "humdinger" of a year only to so far have squat, sucks. I honestly think that with modern technology we are all able to communicate on here about all the different chances of storms we would not have even known about a few years ago; This allows us even more opportunity to be disappointed when we miss out. Math you are the greatest. We spoke at the get together and you know where I'm coming from. I shoot from the hip and tell it like it is. NO ONE ON HERE SHOULD EVER FEEL ATTACKED OR DISRESPECTED OR TEASED BY MY POSTS. We're all snow lovers who love weather. Most of you guys use science and are patient. I use emotion and am impatient.

I updated my winter outlook to an average winter nearly 3 weeks ago. The "humdinger" is no longer expected. Get that out of your head. Getting to average snowfall is still very much a possibility, though.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:29 pm

Quietace wrote:I still miss 2009-2010

That'll happen again when your like 50 years old.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I get the fact that we only average around 24 inches here and we've been spoiled the last few years. I GET IT! But the fact that most of us were expecting another "humdinger" of a year only to so far have squat, sucks. I honestly think that with modern technology we are all able to communicate on here about all the different chances of storms we would not have even known about a few years ago; This allows us even more opportunity to be disappointed when we miss out. Math you are the greatest. We spoke at the get together and you know where I'm coming from. I shoot from the hip and tell it like it is. NO ONE ON HERE SHOULD EVER FEEL ATTACKED OR DISRESPECTED OR TEASED BY MY POSTS. We're all snow lovers who love weather. Most of you guys use science and are patient. I use emotion and am impatient.

Actually the historical average in NYC is 28.4.

The 30 year average will most likely be over 30 inches once the 1980's are no longer part of that average. That however won't happen until the new 30 year averages are calculated in January 2021.

Just trying to keep it real.

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