Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

[Quietace]

There is this trained spotter in Point Pleasant beach that has been under measuring every storm since about 2011...Im not a spotter but i know how to measure, and we never agree on any storm....I was 1.25 today and he is 1.00....WTF...and its even worse when they choose his measurement over mine to report sometimes

That's not really a big deal with these little storms, but when it's 6" or 8" it can make a difference.

With larger storms its usually around a 2-3 inch difference....but you are right..

[amugs]

I don't know how you guys do it. This winter is one continuous disappointment after another with mega-hype preceding it.   I go to bed with a forecast of over a foot and wake up to a slop storm.  Yesterday's "clipper" dropped EXACTLY 1 FLAKE on my house.  Everyone keeps talking about a pattern change.  I've figured out the pattern change.

EARLY IN THE WINTER WE HAD NO COLD AND STORMS INSIDE OF 48 HOURS TRENDED WEST GIVING US RAIN.  NOW WE HAVE THE COLD AND INSIDE OF 48 HOURS THE STORMS WILLL TREND EAST.  THERE'S OUR MUCH AWAITED FOR PATTERN CHANGE.  You can argue statistics and science but hands down this is the worst winter ever.

I asked for advice yesterday cause I was between a 6 pack and a 12 pack and I was told to get a keg and a tap.  Now it looks like I might need 1 24 ounce can!

2011-12 was bad and lets go back to the 80's 1982-83 (only saving factor was the blizzard) and 1990-91, 1996-97 - warm and no snow. I hear your frustrations but I believe we get spoiled by the winters we have had since 1995-96 where we have had anomalous cold and snows above the average. Also, you are on an island that has always struggled with marginal events and even big events due to the bathtub of water you sit in called the Atlantic - if you do not get the northern stream involved you guys taint out there - nothing to stop nature at that point. It sucks but what are you going to do - get that 24ozcan ready for the Saturday storm

[Grselig]

With things getting desperate, I think it's time we really looked at the root cause of the snow drought and do something about it.  

Until February 16th 2014 things were going pretty well snowwise. We had a near recording breaking pace going for the season and then all of a sudden the bottom dropped out. It wasn't that it suddenly got unseasonably warm and we received a ton of rain. Almost the opposite happened and it got even colder and the snow just stopped.

This season is even more frustrating. We have the cold 95% of the time and we have the precip 5% of  the time and never the twain shall meet.

My proposal is simple, human sacrifice. Anyone that joined this board on February 16th 2014 is obviously the problem. It's not somebody's snowblower, or what someone said regarding this winter, it's whomever joined this board on February 16th.

Now I don't want to turn this into a real human sacrifice, as per the ancient Mayans and others, but we have to do something symbolic to appease whomever is doing this to us.

My suggestion is a two month ban for anyone who joined on that date. If it doesn't work out, we can let them back on. If it does, well sometimes the sacrifice of a few must  be made for the benefit of many.

CP, if you scroll up to "Members" near the top, it will give you the list of all 603 (at the moment) users.  You may notice on the list that it allows you to sort the members in either ascending or descending order.  When you click on "Join Date" and "Ascending order" you notice a lot of us, specifically those from the 7-online board are among the first on the group as we came on within days of this boards inception. i.e.   You were the 17th user, I am the 32nd user.  Well as it turns out, there were no new users on 2/16/14.  Now, assuming no one deleted their account, there were 520 users as of that date.  The 521st member joined the next day, 2/17/14.  Now not only has he not made any posts, he has not visited this forum since 2/18/14.  Of those 83 users who have joined since then, nearly 3/4's have not made any posts to this board.  And only 4 of them have made at least 10 posts, the most of course coming from syosnow94 with over 250 posts.  This may help:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/memberlist?mode=joined&order&start=510&username

Of course, I would not ban anyone if I was you

Ok Math things are starting to look desperate. Give us the name of the 2/17/14 snow killer or we may come for you next.

Things are looking desperate. Thought we were on the right track with the Snow Killer nearly identified. Situation reminds me of Dark Knight Rises. Bane, the antagonist, said giving a person hope and leading them to doom causes more pain. Maybe the person was on the board at inception. Maybe its a sick individual from the old ABC Board. Maybe Wax has gone over the edge. Maybe......

[Math23x7]

Syosnow94, do you remember the winter of 2006-07. December and the 1st half of January were unseasonably warm. Then the cold came in gangbusters but with not much snow. The two big winter storms were ice storms. 2/14/07 we had about an inch of sleet, that's right sleet!, giving CPK 2.0" snow equivalent. Cold continued into early March and when it gets to a nice warm 70 two days later snow turning to ice storm. 5.5" for CPK. Here it was less snow, more ice. After a nice promise the 2nd half of March in terms of warmth, the first half of April was brutally cold followed a massive rainstorm (over 7" of rain 4/15/07). So basically, the time period from 1/17-4/19 was one I did not like whatsoever. Links:

December 2006: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-0EC7242B-00E7-4AD3-BA15-C754937175F0.pdf

January 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-04351E9B-4592-4483-90F9-C2E1C41AE782.pdf

February 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-0C92FA30-69D6-4A92-A04D-CE4EB533B76B.pdf

March 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-02FB8974-7F06-447F-9D8A-E437BAEC2B58.pdf

April 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F71836F3-85F2-4136-BB15-907396B91E02.pdf

Think about this winter, it was 3 degrees above average in December for CPK and now we have cold with little snow, similar to 2006-07. Bottom line, winters like this have happened before and they will happen again. So get over it.

[jmanley32]

It stinks, but cannot throw Sat in garbage can until its upon us and over with, I say it ain't over till its over. It very well could be over but I will still be watching and waiting with not a whole lot of expectation at this point unless we see big changes like tomorrows runs, once its snowing I will at least be pleased to see that no matter how much, shoot if we can top 3 inches it'll be my highest snow yet, now how pathetic is that lol. The icing worries me though, we do not need a worse repeat of sunday, even NWS has freezing rain already on their maps. I also have to say that although astrol,ogy is kinda nutty this has been a terrible past 2-3 days in which mercury has been retrograding and in astrology that means things basically go haywire. Well they have in multiple parts of my life, things that have never happened before have happened and things I didn't know (like how certain people feel about me, come to surface at work). And the weather has just been another kick, normally it wouldn't upset me so much but other things added to the fire, just saying maybe this haywire will also work out to make a haywire snowstorm, or worse haywire ice storm.

[Grselig]

It stinks, but cannot throw Sat in garbage can until its upon us and over with, I say it ain't over till its over.  It very well could be over but I will still be watching and waiting with not a whole lot of expectation at this point unless we see big changes like tomorrows runs, once its snowing I will at least be pleased to see that no matter how much, shoot if we can top 3 inches it'll be my highest snow yet, now how pathetic is that lol.  The icing worries me though, we do not need a worse repeat of sunday, even NWS has freezing rain already on their maps.  I also have to say that although astrol,ogy is kinda nutty this has been a terrible past 2-3 days in which mercury has been retrograding and in astrology that means things basically go haywire.  Well they have in multiple parts of my life, things that have never happened before have happened and things I didn't know (like how certain people feel about me, come to surface at work).  And the weather has just been another kick, normally it wouldn't upset me so much but other things added to the fire, just saying maybe this haywire will also work out to make a haywire snowstorm, or worse haywire ice storm.

Hey, Jman, its been a tough week as well. Weather wise difficult winter and the disappointment does get frustrating. We had high hopes for Saturday, but that seems diminished. A good non ice storm would be a really nice thing to happen. Can't control the snow though, just try to understand it. But lets hope the pendulum shifts the other way in the frustrating aspects of both life and weather.

[Guest]

Syosnow94,  do you remember the winter of 2006-07.  December and the 1st half of January were unseasonably warm.  Then the cold came in gangbusters but with not much snow.  The two big winter storms were ice storms.  2/14/07 we had about an inch of sleet, that's right sleet!, giving CPK 2.0" snow equivalent.  Cold continued into early March and when it gets to a nice warm 70 two days later snow turning to ice storm.  5.5" for CPK.  Here it was less snow, more ice.  After a nice promise the 2nd half of March in terms of warmth,  the first half of April was brutally cold followed a massive rainstorm (over 7" of rain 4/15/07).  So basically, the time period from 1/17-4/19 was one I did not like whatsoever.  Links:

December 2006: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-0EC7242B-00E7-4AD3-BA15-C754937175F0.pdf

January 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-04351E9B-4592-4483-90F9-C2E1C41AE782.pdf

February 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-0C92FA30-69D6-4A92-A04D-CE4EB533B76B.pdf

March 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-02FB8974-7F06-447F-9D8A-E437BAEC2B58.pdf

April 2007: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F71836F3-85F2-4136-BB15-907396B91E02.pdf

Think about this winter, it was 3 degrees above average in December for CPK and now we have cold with little snow, similar to 2006-07.  Bottom line, winters like this have happened before and they will happen again.  So get over it.

It's gotten to the point on this sight where if you complain and or question even on the banter sight people get upset.

[jmanley32]

I think the "get over it" line could been left out IMO math, otherwise u always got good info.

[Math23x7]

I think the "get over it" line could been left out IMO math, otherwise u always got good info.

Don't get me wrong, I am upset at how this winter has turned out as well. When basically an entire month is cold expect when there is precipitation, it's never a good feeling. At least the winters of 2001-02 and 2011-12, which produced 3.5" and 7.4", respectively, had consistent warmth. Heck by the end of the latter of the two winters, I was riding my bike long distances, which for me is a great recreational activity. I think a lot of us are getting frustrated over the winter, but eventually we have no other choice but to accept it for what is is. In the words of Joe Bastardi "You should enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got."

[Guest]

I've been following the weather closely for 35 years.  I have a professional job and 2 masters degrees.  I AM NOT A GENIUS. But I am a respectful guy with a sense of humor, and I'm not an idiot either.

We're on this forum to discuss weather.  That includes making forecasts, analyzing them, discussing them and even complaining and venting about them when frustrated.  I just re-read the rules for the site today.  I have not directly attacked anyone, especially the serious METS on here.  Nor have I broken any of the forum's rules, yet I've had two posts taken down today in other threads and had some negative comments thrown my way! (I'm not speaking about the most recent one on this forum either. Math I'm not mad at you, you seem like a great kid)  I had a great time meeting with you people at the get together and hope to do so in the future.  But there is a "holier than though" feeling on here with certain people.  What's everyone's problem?  We're frustrated snow lovers and weather fanatics.  Stop taking yourselves and everyone else's words so seriously.

[Quietace]

I've been following the weather closely for 35 years.  I have a professional job and 2 masters degrees.  I AM NOT A GENIUS.  But I am a respectful guy with a sense of humor, and I'm not an idiot either.

We're on this forum to discuss weather.  That includes making forecasts, analyzing them, discussing them and even complaining and venting about them when frustrated.  I just re-read the rules for the site today.  I have not directly attacked anyone, especially the serious METS on here.  Nor have I broken any of the forum's rules, yet I've had two posts taken down today in other threads and had some negative comments thrown my way! (I'm not speaking about the most recent one on this forum either. Math I'm not mad at you, you seem like a great kid)  I had a great time meeting with you people at the get together and hope to do so in the future.  But there is a "holier than though" feeling on here with certain people.  What's everyone's problem?  We're frustrated snow lovers and weather fanatics.  Stop taking yourselves and everyone else's words so seriously.

[jmanley32]

syosnow, I think Frank took down any complaining in the thread about the storm as he wanted it to stay strictly about the storm. I do not think he minds venting here actually that's what he said. And I concur you have not attacked anyone, venting is fine by my book.

[Frank_Wx]

I don't care if your Obama. The posts such as "976mb storm with rain" or obvious obnoxious posts are not permitted in the main storm thread. That's why this thread was created. I also have people PMing me saying they wish there was an ignore feature on this forum. So maybe some of you should consider toning it down. Otherwise, yljr posts will be deleted.

[oldtimer]

Its amazing how this stuff changes and so radical We were so high talking about Godzilla and poof gone Rain Its tough to take I really believed this one oh well

[Frank_Wx]

Its amazing how this stuff changes and so radical   We were so high talking about Godzilla and poof gone  Rain  Its tough to take  I really believed this one   oh well  

The models were high on a Godzilla. The potential was there. But the upper air pattern never looked favorable for one.

[oldtimer]

I know Frank but most of us thought if we didnt get the big one then all would have settled in for a general 6"

[Frank_Wx]

I know Frank but most of us thought if we didnt get the big one then all would have settled in for a general 6"  

6 inches is still possible

[Guest]

syosnow, I think Frank took down any complaining in the thread about the storm as he wanted it to stay strictly about the storm.  I do not think he minds venting here actually that's what he said.  And I concur you have not attacked anyone, venting is fine by my book.

Being totally honest here I don't even know who took it down and I don't care.  Why can't we vent frustration in-topic, respectfully, about a storm we're tracking while following the site rules?

[Scullybutcher]

Because people go to storm topics to see what is happening with the storm not to read people's hemming and hawing about the storm.

[jmanley32]

hi scully, exactly. And I myself am probably one who has made posts in the wrong thread but I am trying to make sure I put them in the right place. How would a ignore feature work? We used to have a like dislike but frank removed it last year as it was causing problems.

[Scullybutcher]

In my opinion the moderators on this site are extremely fair. If I were a moderator I would have banned certain people a long time ago. Again just my opinion.

[Guest]

Because people go to storm topics to see what is happening with the storm not to read people's hemming and hawing about the storm.

But it's ok to have more than 10 pages of thread, most of which are full of fantasy posts and wishcasting and drooling? How is that contributing to the thread any more/less than "hemming and hawing"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Because people go to storm topics to see what is happening with the storm not to read people's hemming and hawing about the storm.

Bingo, and I say this as someone who has to always catch myself before I do any complaining or joking in the wrong thread.

And on those few times I don't catch myself I am reminded by the moderators.

[Scullybutcher]

Because people go to storm topics to see what is happening with the storm not to read people's hemming and hawing about the storm.

But it's ok to have more than 10 pages of thread, most of which are full of fantasy posts and wishcasting and drooling?  How is that contributing to the thread any more/less than "hemming and hawing"

All weather forecasting is opinion based on what people think the models say. Some people may be overzealous and others not so much. At least it's on topic. If your on here long enough you know who's forecast are accurate and who's are not. No need to ridicule people who aren't as educated at reading the models.

[amugs]

Folks we are here to talk about the weather and once a thread is started about a storm we are then to discuss the information regarding the thread. Listen I KNOW I am the reason this Banter thread started after i flipped on Hector about the pattern change for Jan when I ma here posting maps and interpreting model data and indices. AS part of another board as here too the mods do an excellent job of keeping the thread focused on the what is possibly to come. hey, we all get frustrated and upset about the storm that do not come out as they once showed or vice versa. We have excellent people on this board who do this as a HOBBY - drs, teachers, librarians, business folks and many other professions. Let's not get into the what about my backyard and pissing match or take things personal here. We are here to enjoy and have some fun trying to figure out what Mother Nature is going to do.

The posts about storm 4-5 -6-7 days out or even 10 are just for information and some take them seriously and others do not - to each his own. I know I post some of those maps and say it could be or this is what the H5 set up looks like. We all jumped for joy in hysteria over yesterdays euro run and with good reason because the set up at h5 looked very good IMO and I for one was like HOLY ____ this is coming together and I know that the euro handles the southern stream storms better - it is proven. So, let's all take a deep breath and as Aaron Rodgers said - R E L A X. It has been a frustrating winter but for some to think we will get 1995-96 or 2009-10 each year need to come down from the clouds.

[Guest]

Because people go to storm topics to see what is happening with the storm not to read people's hemming and hawing about the storm.

But it's ok to have more than 10 pages of thread, most of which are full of fantasy posts and wishcasting and drooling?  How is that contributing to the thread any more/less than "hemming and hawing"

All weather forecasting is opinion based on what people think the models say. Some people may be overzealous and others not so much. At least it's on topic. If your on here long enough you know who's forecast are accurate and who's are not. No need to ridicule people who aren't as educated at reading the models.

If you look after Frank, or sroc4's posts amongst others, I am ALWAYS one of the first to comment in a positive manner and thank them for their work. I also would like to see a post where I've ridiculed a specific person on here.

[Scullybutcher]

I'm not singling you out. Im just saying in general.

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