Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

[Dunnzoo]

Eastern Bergen still has a chance for a decent thumping...off duty now, time for a drink and watch the snow!

[2004blackwrx]

How does this drinking game work.
I got an inch but had 12 beers does mother nature have to catch up.
Mother nature do you want to play a game. Ill drink to that.

[docstox12]

Big bust so far west of Hudson River.Why is Lee always right, LOL!!!!

If you're a snow weenie, watching his predictions can be a let down, but he sure as hell gets it LOL.  For LI this will be a good storm. For all others this will be a bust beyond belief considering all stores are wiped out of food and everything else. Just a day ago we were all stocking up on batteries and water. Now, most of us are planing for a storm that will bring less than a foot.

Hector, at this rate in the HV, I'll get a few inches.From NAM snow totals of 36 inches to 1 or 2.How hilarious is that!!!

[docstox12]

How does this drinking game work.
I got an inch but had 12 beers does mother nature have to catch up.
Mother nature do you want to play a game. Ill drink to that.

Oh, Man, you better hope you get 11 inches....NOT

Anyway, you have a great buzz.

Like me with wine tonight.

[devsman]

How does this drinking game work.
I got an inch but had 12 beers does mother nature have to catch up.
Mother nature do you want to play a game. Ill drink to that.

Drink vodka and mix it with anything, and you will be caught up.

[docstox12]

Still waiting for my 18-24 inch blizzard to start here in the LHV, as predicted by the NWS and others.

Pathetic lol, crazy that most if not every school closed in my county and others west of NYC for atleast tomorrow for no reason at all.

It ain't happening my friend, snow hit a wall before it got to us.Friggin' Miller B storms, I hate them!!!!!!!! Almost as much as I hate the word "Delmarva"!

[snow247]

Probably going to catch up on some sleep soon, as I have stayed up late/all night since Friday. This storm just isn't worth staying up for here in the LHV.

Final total is 1.0 here, likely won't get more.

[docstox12]

Yeah, I know, my father was IBEW 3 and my Uncle a city cop.I know the kind of crap you're going to get.

'When the going gets tough, the tough get going"!

[2004blackwrx]

Wow a hole inch going to bed soon better see a foot whe I wake up or I Beat mother nature tonight as many of us from the HV did.

[SoulSingMG]

Aw, this makes me sad to read but great wording from EPAWA. They are great and I agree 100% with their sentiments:

"We are throwing in the towel on this system. Although there will be snow overnight, the snow in Pennsylvania will yield but a few inches, and mainly extreme eastern PA. The image of the HRRR future simulated radar shows this well at 5am Tuesday. Western New Jersey will be much of the same outcome, and the only heavy accumulations will be mainly across the eastern half of northern New Jersey and coastal New Jersey.

So what happened? Aside from the model guidance collectively failing on this one through the 11th hour, we also had another issue. An inverted trough axis set up over central PA - and robbed the snow totals farther to the east. An inverted trough provides rising motion of the air, and the same can be said about the storm itself offshore. Rising motion promotes moisture/snow. In between across eastern PA, New Jersey, and Delaware was sinking air. Sinking air promotes drying out of the atmosphere, and that's exactly what ended up happening through now. The inverted trough is currently weakening significantly, which is finally going to allow some of these snow bands to move back into NJ and PA from the east overnight.

We blew the call, and everyone blew it - and amending or lowering your original call is not nailing it either. No one got this right, plain and simple. It reminds us of the March 5-7th, 2001 epic fail "blizzard" that never was - very eerily similar. Everything looked great through early this evening, and then everything took an abrupt turn for the worse. So although we put countless hours of time and effort into this one, we failed. Yes we got and will get snow, but nowhere close to the epic amounts that up until today looked to be spot on. So this is our "man-up" post. It wasn't hyped, it wasn't sensationalized. It was the right call from a physics and forecasting standpoint, but in the end, mother nature humbled us. It is our first large scale blown call by our staff of meteorologists for our coverage area this year, and this one stings a lot. And will continue to sting until the next one we're sure.

We hope you can continue to have faith in us that we will bounce back and continue to provide the great forecasting that all of the long-standing fans have become accustomed to. Missing one out of 7 or 8 total storms usually is a good track record, but it just takes one for some to be cruel and turn on you. For those who feel that way, please save us the added grief and just unfollow the page. Bashing comments aren't necessary. For the loyalists who know our work is thorough and usually on point, we thank you for your continued support and all of the kind words. We may not respond to all of them, but we see them and appreciate all of it.

Be careful driving in the morning - again there will be snow overnight, and of course slick spots. Just not as much snow as we had hoped. NNJ and coastal NJ residents please continue to follow the advisories issued by the National Weather Service overnight - it will be a rough night for many of you."

[docstox12]

OMG. What a mealy mouth explanation! So they blew it, so what.Look at NWS for my area saying maybe 23 inches and I've had an inch. It's weather,people, you can't try to put Mother Nature in a box with models. We get it and forgive you.

5:45 AM...Sorry I said this, it was fueled by 3 or 4 glasses of wine.A bit of anger and frustration there.Sorry guys!

[docstox12]

I just want to thank Frank, Doc, rb, Ryan and everybody who worked so hard on this storm.Even though I busted out total wise, it was a blast there for a while looking at my area in a 36 inch bullseye.Hey, we learned that model interpretation ain't no easy thing.Anyhoo, I'll get a few more inches added to my 8 on the ground, cold temps and a snowpack on the ground with some more possibilities on the way.To all the good people who got socked on LI... you guys deserve it, you've been shortchanged snow wise this winter.Mother Nature balanced the scales.Oh, and if anybody gets up to Boston, bombard my buddy Jimmy Cantore with a bunch of snowballs,LOL!!!!!

[billg315]

I've been through this so many times I can't get upset. Disappointed, of course. But upset? Nah. We all have been at this for a while (some longer than others) and we have all seen the "50 mile shift" or the dry slot that turns our big snowstorm to a few flurries, or the warm ocean air turning it to rain. It's always a possibility with these coastal storms. They are, by nature, tough calls subject to very subtle changes with huge impacts. It happens. I know two things: this won't be the last coastal storm forecast that busts, and there will be other mega-storms that do deliver and provide us with spectacular snow watching. Location, location, location.

[docstox12]

I've been through this so many times I can't get upset. Disappointed, of course. But upset? Nah. We all have been at this for a while (some longer than others) and we have all seen the "50 mile shift" or the dry slot  that turns our big snowstorm to a few flurries, or the warm ocean air turning it to rain. It's always a possibility with these coastal storms. They are, by nature, tough calls subject to very subtle changes with huge impacts. It happens. I know two things: this won't be the last coastal storm forecast that busts, and there will be other mega-storms that do deliver and provide us with spectacular snow watching. Location, location, location.

A post of wisdom from a man who has been watching snowstorms in the NYC area for a while.You summed it up perfectly!

Yep, disappointed. But it's still a great day because I woke up.The youngsters here will appreciate that when they are nearly Medicaire age like me,LOL!

[billg315]

Haha. Very true. A few years ago I would have been pissed off and angry at waking up to little snow. Increasingly I realize the "waking up" at all is the most important part.

[docstox12]

AMEN, brother!! Anyday above ground is a good one.As you say, we will have our big snowstorm eventually!

[Taffy]

I just had to say that I learned more about reading maps and different aspects of models yesterday than I have since I was on the ABC board ( strictly a lurker ). So many of you were in teaching mode as well as storm mode and I thank you all.

[jimv45]

I am really pissed of first the ice storm that the so called experts were late to the party alerting people about that dangerous situation my wife cracks up the car thank god see didn't get hurt and now this bust that forced me to shut down my business for nothing I know people will say the weather is tough to forcast well that's your job if someone keeps making mistakes I fire them . I am not calling anybody out on this site want to make that clear but I can't trust anyone anymore I do count on the forcast with my business but nobody is perfect and we move on.

[Guest]

Bad year all around for forecasters period!! I hate to say it but The Weather Channel has been the most accurate even with all the shit we give them. What kills me the most is the forecast never busts when rain is predicted. Many times we overperform with rain. This one sucked after all the hype and I got 15 inches and still snowing. My credibility at work is shot.

[Quietace]

Bad year all around for forecasters period!!  I hate to say it but The Weather Channel has been the most accurate even with all the shit we give them.  What kills me the most is the forecast never busts when rain is predicted.  Many times we overperform with rain.  This one sucked after all the hype and I got 15 inches and still snowing.  My credibility at work is shot.

This storm killed my credibility for 1)my friends 2) teachers,3)administrators that are demanding to know why i said we had to close school today...which we shouldn't have as roads are clear now....4) my 3 local businessman who i advised they would probably have to close today....and let alone 5) all of you on this board that come here for forecasts.......we are much better than most, but not this time around...

[docstox12]

I am really pissed of first the ice storm that the so called experts were late to the party alerting people about that dangerous situation my wife cracks up the car thank god see didn't get hurt and now  this bust that forced me to shut down my business for nothing I know people will say the weather is tough to forcast well that's your job if someone  keeps making mistakes I fire them . I am not calling anybody out on this site want to make that clear but I can't trust anyone anymore I do count on the forcast with my business but nobody is  perfect and  we move on.

jim, sorry to hear about your wife and the car but very glad she's OK.Lot's of people going to be pissed at closures that didn't need to be.Wouldn't want to be a pro-Met in NYC who was calling for the epic storm.Hey, it's part of the science.I am sure they are very humbled at what Mother Nature did last night.Doctors bury their mistakes, Architects cover theirs with ivy and pro Mets go on to the next storm.

[docstox12]

Bad year all around for forecasters period!!  I hate to say it but The Weather Channel has been the most accurate even with all the shit we give them.  What kills me the most is the forecast never busts when rain is predicted.  Many times we overperform with rain.  This one sucked after all the hype and I got 15 inches and still snowing.  My credibility at work is shot.

This storm killed my credibility for 1)my friends 2) teachers,3)administrators that are demanding to know why i said we had to close school today...which we shouldn't have as roads are clear now....4) my 3 local businessman who i advised they would probably have to close today....and let alone 5) all of you on this board that come here for forecasts.......we are much better than most, but not this time around...

Ryan, please, you can only interpret the data the models give you! I bought into the NAM and EURO and was preparing for 30 inches here.You, Frank, Doc and other contributors are and always will be, the best forecasters as far as I am concerned.We are trying to harness Mother Nature with strict, rational scientific model analysis. She throws us curveballs just to let us know who is the boss.

Let's move on to Thursday's clipper and the threat for late weekend.

[jldio]

I just want to thank Frank and all of you on the board. I have followed many of you since the 7 online boards back in the day. Even though this storm did not bring us a lot of snow I learned so much by reading your posts throughout it all. I do not have all the knowledge that you guys have about weather but I am trying to learn. Thanks for sharing all your knowledge with all of us.

[jimv45]

Thanks doc car can be fixed just frustrated that I had to shut down for 4 inches losing money is not fun but life goes on.

[docstox12]

jimv, I ran a Dental Practice 25 years and I know what you mean.I would have been wiped clean on my appointment book with the hyped up forecast.When you are self employed, if you don't work, you don't make money and no sick days ever.

[RJB8525]

TWC makes me very humble today. In they end they were right Euro NAM was obviously wrong. GFS wins they called east and the city out from the beginning to end

[docstox12]

There were no grey areas on this one, it was GFS vs the NAM/EURO and they picked the right one.I had mentioned yesterday an epic model battle would ensue and it sure did.

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