Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

[Guest]

Just my two cents on weather and forecasting, but here goes: Weather forecasting is like criminal profiling in that it's an art that looks like a science. You can enter all of the data in all of the computer models with all of their algorithms and still you get things like last week. If it was science with laws set in stone, there wouldn't be a need for forecasters; just some pretty talking head to read the computer printouts. Much respect to Frank, sroc and everybody that takes the time to study all of the maps and models out there and is willing to share their knowledge with us. You do great work in a field where even the greatest of successes is likely to be met with faint praise at best. *climbs down from the soapbox*

[nancy-j-s]

Just my two cents on weather and forecasting, but here goes: Weather forecasting is like criminal profiling in that it's an art that looks like a science. You can enter all of the data in all of the computer models with all of their algorithms and still you get things like last week. If it was science with laws set in stone, there wouldn't be a need for forecasters; just some pretty talking head to read the computer printouts. Much respect to Frank, sroc and everybody that takes the time to study all of the maps and models out there and is willing to share their knowledge with us. You do great work in a field where even the greatest of successes is likely to be met with faint praise at best.  *climbs down from the soapbox*

Well said - totally agree! Keep up the great work guys!

[sroc4]

Just my two cents on weather and forecasting, but here goes: Weather forecasting is like criminal profiling in that it's an art that looks like a science. You can enter all of the data in all of the computer models with all of their algorithms and still you get things like last week. If it was science with laws set in stone, there wouldn't be a need for forecasters; just some pretty talking head to read the computer printouts. Much respect to Frank, sroc and everybody that takes the time to study all of the maps and models out there and is willing to share their knowledge with us. You do great work in a field where even the greatest of successes is likely to be met with faint praise at best.  *climbs down from the soapbox*

Great Post. I would say however, that the art of and the science of are somewhat one in the same. Weather, medicine, quantum physics, we are always using the science of what we know to answer the questions that we dont know; however, in all three subject matters as well as others it usually takes an outside the box thinker to change the way we look at things, and alter what we understand as the rule. There is alot of well known science in weather. We know a ton about the physics of it all. However, Where the understanding in the science of weather meets the unknown explanations of certain interactions is where the art of weather comes into play. Experience and a dash of luck play huge roles here and even then it aint easy.

[Guest]

Anyone else on here going to be "surprised" when we turn to rain by 4 in the morning and temps get to near 40 from Ct. coast on south and heavy rain. Then we turn real cold after the precip. FREAKIN AWESOME! I for one am super excited for this event anyone else?

Just look at the change in forecasts from 36 hours ago till now. Unbelievable.

[Taffy]

I'm in embattled Union County, NJ. I love weather events but the the thought of ice scares me. I'd rather have all snow or just rain.

[Guest]

As the event gets closer I want everyone heading to work or school tomorrow morning from Westchester county on South and East to be very careful. The puddles will be huge and there could be some flooding. Huge rain storm on the way from "The storm that couldn't cut"!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's not really cutting in the sense of through the great lakes but passing right over us, either way it's damn frustrating.

I got more enjoyment out of Thursdays surprise 3.5 inches from the clipper, than this approaching albatross. Not to put blame anywhere, but I'm 100% sure it's Alex's fault and the 2/17/14 snow killer.

MATH GIVE UP HIS NAME ALREADY!!!

[jimv45]

cp don't give up this still will be a decent storm for us

[Guest]

Mid Hudson Valley 4 to 6" then slop. Hope I'm wrong!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Jim I'm not giving up. I expect about 6-8 where I am but when the frozen precip begins I'll know it could have been much more. Like 12-18 without the damn WAA. Like I said this morning the 10-14 the NWS is predicting for orange I don't see as realistic at all. They will probably change after the 4pm update.

I'm also annoyed for everyone south of here that looks to get scrooed a lot more so than us.

[jimv45]

yea I see 6 to 10 right now but for you and me with sleet!

[algae888]

is it me or have the computer models from last year mid feb on consistently over blown snow amounts for us even as little as 24 hours out? I do not remember a time where this has happened this long. usually they equal out. btw you can have the euro this winter it's really doing a poor job. at least not up to its standards.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

is it me or have the computer models from last year mid feb on consistently over blown snow amounts for us even as little as 24 hours out? I do not remember a time where this has happened this long. usually they equal out. btw you can have the euro this winter it's really doing a poor job. at least not up to its standards.

They've been crap Al.

[Frank_Wx]

As the event gets closer I want everyone heading to work or school tomorrow morning from Westchester county on South and East to be very careful.  The puddles will be huge and there could be some flooding.  Huge rain storm on the way from "The storm that couldn't cut"!

If it did cut, no one in our area would be even receiving snow accumulation. We would all be raining like the storm we saw in late Dec. or early Jan. Nice try, though.

[Guest]

Hey fellow weather lovers,

Maybe this post will be taken down before any of you can read it. I hope not.

I joined this sight because after a year and a half of lurking I realized that you all shared my passion for weather (especially snow, all you snow weenies). I began posting, came to the get together and met a bunch of nice people who shared my passion.

You all know I'm a blunt guy, but I have read and re-read the rules on this forum and feel like I have adhered to them. I am a professional person who is allowed to respectfully disagree with others and express his own opinion.

I have gone out of my way to defend a lot of the mets on here and even have gone so far as to threaten outsiders who attacked my fellow weather "buddy's".

My opinion is if you put out a forecast or a prediction on the web for all the world to see, you should be able to deal with critique when you are wrong or your forecast busts. Not only deal with the praise when you are right. No one controls mother nature. I get that. But I will not be silenced like I live in some kind of Soviet area Stalin controlled state.

I wish you all well. However, not that it will change any of your lives but I will no longer post and may even delete my account. I hope you're all safe and have great lives. I WISH YOU ALL WELL!

Yours truly,
Syosnow 94
James

[docstox12]

That would really be a shame, you leaving, James.I enjoyed your company at the get together and appreciated the time you took to e mail me info on trout fishing in NYS and the Winery.Being of Italian ancestry, I know how you handle frustration and I accept it completely.You have to do what you have to do.If you go, just know it was a pleasure talking with you and all the best, but I hope you re-consider and stay.

If you read Frank's reviews after a storm he always grades himself and I have seen him take responsibility for a forecast that went sour.I don't envy Pro Mets and hobby Mets like Frank trying to make a call.These models are crazier than a March Hare.If my technical indicators I use in my financial investment operation were like the weather indicators, I'd be busted quick.

Paisan Doc

[Frank_Wx]

James,

Losing a fellow weather enthusiast is not what we try to do here. However, those that have come along from the old Channel 7 forum know that the lack of moderation pretty much ruined the place and forced Bill Evans to shut it down. I made this place with the intention of bringing us back together again, this time, with moderation to prevent against "trolls" or disrupting comments in general. You are far from a troll. Very passionate and enthusiastic just like the rest of us. That said, the "another bust" post you made today in the storm thread really set me off. Nothing can be considered a bust until after the storm event is over. Models a few days ago had 8+ inches of snow for NYC, yes, but it has changed. That by no means the forecast is a bust. We adjust our forecasts based on latest trends. Even when we released our 1st call snow maps we clearly stated in the text this is bound to change due to XYZ reasons. Every storm you seem to insinuate is a bust because 3-4 days before it shows something major then within 1-2 days Mother Nature has different ideas. There's is nothing anyone can do about that.

At the get together, I made it clear to everyone this time period will produce. That is now 3 storms (if you include the clipper) that we have gotten since January 22nd. With more to come. Recognizing a pattern change, in my mind, is simpler to do than trying to predict individual storm events. Each storm is working with a different set-up. It's never easy. Even the clippers.

Anyway, hope you re-consider. All I ask is your "bust" posts to remain in the banter thread.

[docstox12]

Frank, in the words of that amazing philosopher and all around raconteur of incredible expressions, Yogi Berra..."it ain't over til it's over!". That applies to winter storms.You never know here with this one.Could surprise still.

Well told to James who I hope stays as well.

I remember the 7 Board.Total chaos and a reservoir of bad feelings and ill will.That is not like that at all here.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, in the words of that amazing philosopher and all around raconteur of incredible expressions, Yogi Berra..."it ain't over til it's over!". That applies to winter storms.You never know here with this one.Could surprise still.

Well told to James who I hope stays as well.

I remember the 7 Board.Total chaos and a reservoir of bad feelings and ill will.That is not like that at all here.

Disaster. We have much more fun here. Share lots of laughs. Off-topic is a crazy place, but that's what makes it awesome.

[docstox12]

Agree. We have some great comedians on this board that make it enjoyable as an aside to science of Meteorology which we all love, whatever knowledge and skills we may have.I say this not to gain favor with anyone but sincerely...one of the best things I ever did was sign on to this board 2 years ago.I have learned more about meteorology in those two years than in the other 54.I have cried from laughing as well.

Now, time for a nap and get ready to see Seattle beat the Patriots.....I hope.Enjoy the game later, everybody.

[Math23x7]

James, you had great enthusiasm at the meetup last month and it's great to meet a weather enthusiast that grew up in my neighborhood.

Now, I input the seasonal snow data from Upton onto Excel and the 145-year mean is ~28.6 and the standard deviation is ~15. I put in the normal curve and made some calculations based on the data, the probability of CPK getting 50"+ snowfall in a season, given that CPK gets at least zero inches of snow (duh!), is about 7.9%. And only 17 seasons have topped 50" (~11.7%), three of them occurring the past five seasons! Please understand how rare it is to have something happened. And never mind the combined 113.2" from 2009-10 and 2010-11. The odds of such a thing happening are <1%.

And lets take the past four snow seasons, including this season.

2011-12: 7.4"
2012-13: 26.1"
2013-14: 57.4"
2014-15: 16.5" (ongoing)

The average of those four is 26.85" which is pretty close to the average snowfall CPK gets.

Now, I would love to have an active February-early March to rack up snow totals. But mother nature will do what she wants to do. If you set your standards too high, you will be disappointed in a lot of cases. I brought up the winter of 1998-99 as the first winter I followed snowstorms. It had 12.7" the entire winter, but since I had no standard, I enjoyed all of the snow events that occurred and from the perspective of my eight year old self, that was a great winter. Since you are in your early 40s you should probably remember how relatively inactive the period from February 1983 to March 1993 was. I'm sure you especially remember December 1989 (you told me how your meteorological career was derailed that fall after meeting with your guidance counselor). It was the third coldest December on record but only 1.4" of snow on the month.

With all due respect, please get your priorities straight. And in the words of Joe Bastardi "You should enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got."

[Frank_Wx]

Mike, excellent post. Our own statistician. You and CP could run this place

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

fRaNK:

UnFOrtunaTElY oNLy ThE PeOPle frOM tHE cHaNNel 7 BoARd reALiZe thE LUnes ThAT BegAN tO taKE OvEr.

Right Schmaltzie?
Yes Phil you are the only poster here that seems to have a clue what's going on.

"Tom why are you criticizing the thread I created about the thunderstorms we may get next weekend? I think people need to know. Plus the thread I started about the blizzard the 90 day Euro has for thanksgiving looks intriguing. People should be warned. I posted 19 maps just to let everyone know.

And I'm not posting the above to say that Syo was anything like those lunatics because he isn't, just a reminder of what the final days were like.

[Frank_Wx]

^ hahahahaha

[Philliesfan]

I remember those last days. Wouldn't want that to happen to this wonderful board.

[sroc4]

I remember those last days. Wouldn't want that to happen to this wonderful board.

It most def will not.

[devsman]

You guys have to tell more of that story. SOunds insane what happened at ch.7 boards. Reminds me of Hockey chat 15 years ago on aol boards. Started off really fun then people started dating "online" on that chat board and other people got mad b/c they were in love with the person they never even met. Then it just went downhill from there. Frank...u do an amazing job. SOme people need to realize that 90% of the fun is the adrenaline we get from tracking storms. The storm is the 10% bonus.

So with that said....on to the next bust!

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