Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

that precip seems it should be further west but still it a BM hit!

jmanley32 wrote:oldtimer it loos close but western extent of precip looks cut back, CMC had that and frank said it was convective feedback, next frame:

Wow, really bizarre. It's near BM too. But it can't be convective feedback on BOTH...?'

I think it had convective feedback too, the precip on 12z was much further west but the placement of LP was at or inside BM on both. Snow totals therefore very low, but that may not be able to be taken verbatim, i dunno we will have to see what frank and others say in morning night.

On that run no one sees over 4 inches, doesnt make sense, something wrong with the surface precip placement. maybe I am wrong, if that red were over us OMG!

Sharp cut off west side And it looks so elongated

soul the placement of the precip did not change at all just the totals look. that was the 12z.

00z, same placement basically but way less precip seems odd to me, what do u think oldtimer?

jmanley32 wrote:soul the placement of the precip did not change at all just the totals look. that was the 12z.

Right but the actual QPF changed on the western side, Which is no bueno. Possibly because of the other low to the northwest? I don't know. A pressure like that with a track like that, I've never seen that not materialize into a Godzilla for our area.

Something had to effect the western side but the CMC had same issue and frank said disregard the precip, the actual LP did not get pushed east.

All in all, not the greatest 00z suite. But this usually happens around this timeframe. We've still got 24 hrs correct it.

AND the pressure when at the BM is a whole 15mb lower than 12z jesus! 974 versus 989.

you know what it is east at the BM but only ever so slightly.

Frank was little concerned about BM If it set up further east it would be troublesome

Im headed to bed lets get the analysis from the pros here tomorrow they will know what went wrong.

If the NAVGEM wins this battle, she WILL be our new Queen. Lol

1st call snow map from nws... at this point seems reasonable..

total qpf

my forecast from nws... will take any snow right now in this dreadful winter.

Friday Night
A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday
Snow likely before noon, then snow and freezing rain between noon and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

algae888 wrote:1st call snow map from nws... at this point seems reasonable..

total qpf

Blahhhhhhhhh.

6z nam came in wetter than 00z as low was deepening quicker to our south. there will be mixing along coast and into city where most precip falls. if this was all snow c nj and li would do very well. areas where it stays all snow not much qpf.

6z

00z

6z snow map. 1-3" area wide. nam is really warm

nws disco another challenging and complicated forecast.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT EMERGES
FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND RAPIDLY TRACKS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SAT...PASSING NEAR THE 40N...70W BENCHMARK. THE
MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK. OF THE OPERATIONAL MEMBERS...THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE
WETTER AND FARTHEST WEST IN TRACK..BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT. THE REAL
TROUBLING PART OF THE FORECAST IS PTYPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE FORECAST. THERE IS NO HIGH IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS OFTEN THE MOST CRITICAL ELEMENT TO
MAINTAIN A COLD AIR SUPPLY FOR A NOR`EASTER. THAT BEING THE
CASE...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES AND A STRONG NLY FLOW DUE
TO THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL PROVIDE AN AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF
PRIMARILY SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN.
THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO STORM TOTALS.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE COAST...THE EVENT WILL BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...BUT LESS QPF. SO FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD SEE A STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCRETION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SHOULD THE EVENT STAY ALL SNOW...THEN EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT.

[b]THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGNS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS OF
THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD DRAW THE
DEEPENING LOW FARTHER WEST. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK IS WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HONE IN ON.
[

algae888 wrote:nws disco another challenging and complicated forecast.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT EMERGES
FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND RAPIDLY TRACKS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SAT...PASSING NEAR THE 40N...70W BENCHMARK. THE
MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK. OF THE OPERATIONAL MEMBERS...THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE
WETTER AND FARTHEST WEST IN TRACK..BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT. THE REAL
TROUBLING PART OF THE FORECAST IS PTYPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE FORECAST. THERE IS NO HIGH IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS OFTEN THE MOST CRITICAL ELEMENT TO
MAINTAIN A COLD AIR SUPPLY FOR A NOR`EASTER. THAT BEING THE
CASE...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES AND A STRONG NLY FLOW DUE
TO THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL PROVIDE AN AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF
PRIMARILY SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN.
THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO STORM TOTALS.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE COAST...THE EVENT WILL BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...BUT LESS QPF. SO FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD SEE A STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCRETION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SHOULD THE EVENT STAY ALL SNOW...THEN EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT.

[b]THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGNS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS OF
THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD DRAW THE
DEEPENING LOW FARTHER WEST. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK IS WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HONE IN ON.
[

Yeah. The issue is not the track here. The issue is the lack of phasing.

And would you look at that.......

Welcome aboard, GFS.

Is that good because u get 2 pages of good news and 3 of bad just can't take it

SoulSingMG wrote:And would you look at that.......

Welcome aboard, GFS.

unbelievable gfs now has furthest west track. i'm going to lose my mind!!

total qpf

6z gfs

algae888 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:And would you look at that.......

Welcome aboard, GFS.

unbelievable gfs now has furthest west track. i'm going to lose my mind!!

total qpf

Lol! It's really friggen screwy, I know. I mean I know it's the 6z's but I can't help but find some hope in this...