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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:14 am

I think it had convective feedback too, the precip on 12z was much further west but the placement of LP was at or inside BM on both. Snow totals therefore very low, but that may not be able to be taken verbatim, i dunno we will have to see what frank and others say in morning night.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:16 am

On that run no one sees over 4 inches, doesnt make sense, something wrong with the surface precip placement. maybe I am wrong, if that red were over us OMG!
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Post by oldtimer Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:17 am

Sharp cut off west side And it looks so elongated

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:18 am

soul the placement of the precip did not change at all just the totals look. that was the 12z.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 12z10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:19 am

00z, same placement basically but way less precip seems odd to me, what do u think oldtimer?

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 00z10
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:20 am

@jmanley32 wrote:soul the placement of the precip did not change at all just the totals look. that was the 12z.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 12z10

Right but the actual QPF changed on the western side, Which is no bueno. Possibly because of the other low to the northwest? I don't know. A pressure like that with a track like that, I've never seen that not materialize into a Godzilla for our area.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:22 am

Something had to effect the western side but the CMC had same issue and frank said disregard the precip, the actual LP did not get pushed east.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:25 am

All in all, not the greatest 00z suite. But this usually happens around this timeframe. We've still got 24 hrs correct it.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:25 am

AND the pressure when at the BM is a whole 15mb lower than 12z jesus! 974 versus 989.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:26 am

you know what it is east at the BM but only ever so slightly.
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Post by oldtimer Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:29 am

Frank was little concerned about BM If it set up further east it would be troublesome

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:29 am

Im headed to bed lets get the analysis from the pros here tomorrow they will know what went wrong.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:33 am

If the NAVGEM wins this battle, she WILL be our new Queen. Lol
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:36 am

1st call snow map from nws... at this point seems reasonable..
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 StormTotalSnowFcst
total qpf
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 StormTotalQPFFcst
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:40 am

my forecast from nws... will take any snow right now in this dreadful winter.

Friday Night
A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday
Snow likely before noon, then snow and freezing rain between noon and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:53 am

@algae888 wrote:1st call snow map from nws... at this point seems reasonable..
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 StormTotalSnowFcst
total qpf
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 StormTotalQPFFcst

Blahhhhhhhhh.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:06 am

6z nam came in wetter than 00z as low was deepening quicker to our south. there will be mixing along coast and into city where most precip falls. if this was all snow c nj and li would do very well. areas where it stays all snow not much qpf.
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Nam_namer_072_precip_ptot
6z
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Nam_namer_084_precip_ptot
00z
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:14 am

6z snow map. 1-3" area wide. nam is really warm
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_us_26
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:37 am

nws disco another challenging and complicated forecast.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT EMERGES
FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND RAPIDLY TRACKS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SAT...PASSING NEAR THE 40N...70W BENCHMARK. THE
MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK. OF THE OPERATIONAL MEMBERS...THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE
WETTER AND FARTHEST WEST IN TRACK..BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT. THE REAL
TROUBLING PART OF THE FORECAST IS PTYPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE FORECAST. THERE IS NO HIGH IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS OFTEN THE MOST CRITICAL ELEMENT TO
MAINTAIN A COLD AIR SUPPLY FOR A NOR`EASTER. THAT BEING THE
CASE...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES AND A STRONG NLY FLOW DUE
TO THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL PROVIDE AN AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF
PRIMARILY SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN.
THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO STORM TOTALS.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE COAST...THE EVENT WILL BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...BUT LESS QPF. SO FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD SEE A STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCRETION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SHOULD THE EVENT STAY ALL SNOW...THEN EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT.

[b]THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGNS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS OF
THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD DRAW THE
DEEPENING LOW FARTHER WEST. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK IS WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HONE IN ON.
[
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:51 am

@algae888 wrote:nws disco another challenging and complicated forecast.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW THAT EMERGES
FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND RAPIDLY TRACKS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SAT...PASSING NEAR THE 40N...70W BENCHMARK. THE
MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK. OF THE OPERATIONAL MEMBERS...THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE
WETTER AND FARTHEST WEST IN TRACK..BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT. THE REAL
TROUBLING PART OF THE FORECAST IS PTYPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE FORECAST. THERE IS NO HIGH IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS OFTEN THE MOST CRITICAL ELEMENT TO
MAINTAIN A COLD AIR SUPPLY FOR A NOR`EASTER. THAT BEING THE
CASE...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES AND A STRONG NLY FLOW DUE
TO THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL PROVIDE AN AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF
PRIMARILY SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN.
THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO STORM TOTALS.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE COAST...THE EVENT WILL BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...BUT LESS QPF. SO FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD SEE A STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME ICE ACCRETION UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SHOULD THE EVENT STAY ALL SNOW...THEN EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
WARNING LEVEL EVENT.

[b]THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGNS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS OF
THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD DRAW THE
DEEPENING LOW FARTHER WEST. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK IS WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HONE IN ON.
[

Yeah. The issue is not the track here. The issue is the lack of phasing.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:12 am

And would you look at that.......

Welcome aboard, GFS.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Post-710
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Post by carvin1079 Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:31 am

Is that good because u get 2 pages of good news and 3 of bad just can't take it

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:32 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:And would you look at that.......

Welcome aboard, GFS.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Post-710
unbelievable gfs now has furthest west track. i'm going to lose my mind!!
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Gfs_namer_069_precip_ptot
total qpf
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:34 am

6z gfs
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:35 am

@algae888 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:And would you look at that.......

Welcome aboard, GFS.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Post-710
unbelievable gfs now has furthest west track. i'm going to lose my mind!!
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 6 Gfs_namer_069_precip_ptot
total qpf

Lol! It's really friggen screwy, I know. I mean I know it's the 6z's but I can't help but find some hope in this...
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