Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

18z GFS Bufkit snowfall totals 15" for LGA, 23" for ISP. Ratios between 20 to 25 to 1 - that is with 1.25 qpf even thughtheOP showed 1.5 qpf and euro qpf is 2.5 mean - that is

25" -30" LGA
32- 40" ISP

HOLY MOLY!!!
Blockbuster is right BECS!!!

amugs wrote:RGEM - OH Sweat Jesus this is EURO part2 - GFS makes jump to euro tonight watch in terms of qpf on western flank - there is nothing to stop or prevent westward qpf expansion on this one EPA gets in on the act as well -

Let's hope so Mugs. I would hate to be left out of the big snows and only get a few flurries. That would SUCK !

SNOW MAN wrote:

amugs wrote:RGEM - OH Sweat Jesus this is EURO part2 - GFS makes jump to euro tonight watch in terms of qpf on western flank - there is nothing to stop or prevent westward qpf expansion on this one EPA gets in on the act as well -

Let's hope so Mugs. I would hate to be left out of the big snows and only get a few flurries. That would SUCK !  

grow up!

Oh. Ok. Well then.

i would love or that to happen. We would have no much fun tracking that. either way we still gonna have a lot of fun the next few days

[quote="amugs"]RGEM - OH Sweat Jesus this is EURO part2 - GFS makes jump to euro tonight watch in terms of qpf on western flank - there is nothing to stop or prevent westward qpf expansion on this one EPA gets in on the act as well -

Yea, I just looked at the GFS myself. Upper levels and surface doesn't seem to match up. Western flank looks to weak, yet it still produces a MECS for the area. Barring something unforeseen like March 2001 (god forbid), expect to the GFS to produce a HECS for us if not by tonight, surely by 12z tomorrow.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-252130-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
ROCKLAND-
425 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BLACK ICE WILL FORM OVERNIGHT ON UNTREATED SURFACES AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...A
NOR`EASTER...TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WELL OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS THAT WOULD RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGHER
THREAT FOR THESE CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM
EXISTS FOR THIS REGION AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

nutleyblizzard wrote:

amugs wrote:RGEM - OH Sweat Jesus this is EURO part2 - GFS makes jump to euro tonight watch in terms of qpf on western flank - there is nothing to stop or prevent westward qpf expansion on this one EPA gets in on the act as well -

Yea, I just looked at the GFS myself. Upper levels and surface doesn't seem to match up. Western flank looks to weak, yet it still produces a MECS for the area. Barring something unforeseen like March 2001 (god forbid), expect to the GFS to produce a HECS for us if not by tonight, surely by 12z tomorrow.

GFS jumps to euro by 00z or 6z runs - always late to the party -

EURO, RGEM, NOGAPS on board for potential ROIDZILLA

Who wants to join us for a warm bath in the.............



Talk about fuel for the storm my god

Was just going to say that Mugsy, pure gasoline and jet fuel out there to blow this baby up.

SoulSingMG wrote:

Oh. Ok. Well then.

Where do I sign?

docstox12 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Oh. Ok. Well then.

Where do I sign?

Where is the like button?

HPC saying euro had convective feedback issues that is hwy it spit out a RIODZILLA - blaspheme I say!!

amugs wrote:HPC saying euro had convective feedback issues that is hwy it spit out a RIODZILLA - blaspheme I say!!

That would mean less snow?

docstox12 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Oh. Ok. Well then.

Where do I sign?

I agree Doc, we're right on that 18-24 line. I'm not a greedy man.

I'm not holding out for 24-40 although I wouldn't throw it back either.

Abba701 wrote:

amugs wrote:HPC saying euro had convective feedback issues that is hwy it spit out a RIODZILLA - blaspheme I say!!

That would mean less snow?

That is BS. Frank already addressed it. 40 of the 50 euro ensembles did NOT have convective feedback issues.

Upton throwing the city in the mix.

PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
425 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

BLACK ICE WILL FORM OVERNIGHT ON UNTREATED SURFACES AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...A
NOR`EASTER...TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WELL OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS THAT WOULD RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO HAVE A HIGHER
THREAT FOR THESE CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM
EXISTS FOR THIS REGION AS WELL.

Yep, if we got 24 you are now coming up to a normal HV winter.I think you mentioned 60 inches average up here? Forgive me if that's wrong,pal, but I thought you had said that once.

Anyhoo, what a hoot if it all comes together.I'll be at my command center here on the Orange Turnpike for the duration, no working on the Mahwah house for sure.

Hey averyone sorry had to take a nap fuel up for tonight, wow djd GFS precip go much further west on 18z, expect it like others said to get to about what Euro is showing Abba, I doubt HPC is right look at how almost everywhere else is taking this, its going to be a massive storm dumping snow and high winds and NYC is def in play for a lowest godzilla to highest roid+ I cannot believe the change of events, and sites crashing wow!

everyones blowing up Jman lol cant wait till the chat at 10 and model runs

Oh shoot I did not even notice the chat thanks for mention that, sweet how long has it been when we had no clue and then boom we hav like 48 hrs to prepare, no 6 days of wondering and back and forth models (well we didm but we were so focused on last night and showed nothing for mon/tues that we didnt pay attention anymore and thrn last night boom. This could effectivley shutdown parts of if not all of some states and MAYBE even NYC will be smart enough to take the proper precautions and close school mta etc. My boss will still expect us to walk or drive through 18-24 inches lol, he is such a jerk. And btw sign me up for that snow map, no idea who they are but I am well within that 18-24, not gonna be greedy, if I saw more it would just add to the pot, so happy with how this is trending.

imagine that....half of the yearly average in one shot!

jmanley32 wrote:Oh shoot I did not even notice the chat thanks for mention that, sweet how long has it been when we had no clue and then boom we hav like 48 hrs to prepare, no 6 days of wondering and back and forth models (well we didm but we were so focused on last night and showed nothing for mon/tues that we didnt pay attention anymore and thrn last night boom.  This could effectivley shutdown parts of if not all of some states and MAYBE even NYC will be smart enough to take the proper precautions and close school mta etc. My boss will still expect us to walk or drive through 18-24 inches lol, he is such a jerk. And btw sign me up for that snow map, no idea who they are but I am well within that 18-24, not gonna be greedy, if I saw more it would just add to the pot, so happy with how this is trending.

Been a long time since a snowstorm chat here.Gonna be a blast with Frank at the command center!

I really think coastal nj will get more than 12+

I think you are right, Skins. My sister in Ocean Grove is gonna freak out, she's. at age 73, a snow maniac like me!!

docstox12 wrote:Yep, if we got 24 you are now coming up to a normal HV winter.I think you mentioned 60 inches average up here? Forgive me if that's wrong,pal, but I thought you had said that once.

Anyhoo, what a hoot if it all comes together.I'll be at my command center here on the Orange Turnpike for the duration, no working on the Mahwah house for sure.

45-50 in Orange County.

Jeez, we are halfway to it even without this storm.