Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:20 pm

How about this for some fantasy!

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 11 12z_cm10

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:12z CMC, what a small strip of snow. Looks good for me i'll def take it. But isn't this storm supposed to be warm? Friggin Boston yet again jackpots with 12+, I know by this point they are hating it though!

It doesn't matter now, the final solution won't look like this for us, or Boston or anyone else.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:23 pm

No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

by **lglickman1** Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:24 pm

I wonder why they even bother putting out these maps if they never verify. Whats the point

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

by **Math23x7** Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:32 pm

I just looked back on some of my posts on another site from last month and I can't help but think about what could have been. This is from Sunday January 25th at around 6:30 AM:

Ok guys I just woke up and looked at the latest model runs, especially the EURO and it's ensembles. I am 90% confident that NYC will get at least 12" from this storm and 50% confident that it will get at least 20" from this storm. And just so you know, the biggest storm on record in Central Park's recorded history was 26.9" from the February 11-12, 2006 mesoscale snowstorm. This has an outside chance of BREAKING that record. As for Long Island, expect not only the same amount of snow but also high WINDS! I normally don't like to hype this far out but this looks really threatening. Of course, I am concerned that this turns out like the March 4th-6th, 2001 event where NYC was forecasted to get over two feet of snow and wound up with only 3.5" of snow. But the EURO and it's ensembles have been so consistent as of late. As of now, it starts off as light snow Monday morning and gradually picks up during the afternoon and early evening. But after 7 PM Monday, all bets are off! I wish I could post you images from weatherbell, but I am forbidden from doing so. Maybe when I come back [this afternoon], I can show you guys a short term model image from later on this morning. I have a strong feeling it's going to be busy at [the grocery store] today...

Of course, the low formed east of the EURO and CPK ended up with 9.8."

by **Quietace** Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:51 pm

Soon we can start looking harder towards early spring and what it will bring.....
EPS weeklies want to pull back the ridge in the west with a -PNA and raise heights on the EC after day 15 moving into early March...
Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 11 Eps_m_10

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:54 pm

That won't be good if it's to drastic a warmup. Eastern New England may face big time flooding.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:55 pm

Yes, spoke about this in the LR thread. While I expect February to be cold/stormy all the way through...March is still a question mark but I am favoring a pattern break down and above normal temps. at the moment.

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:03 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

Not this snow weenie.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:19 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

Not this snow weenie.

In your case I didn't think so Snow Man, probably not in mine either. I don't ever remember being sick of snow in 95/96 and we had 120 inches. Of course we didn't get 90 of it in one month either.

by **Quietace** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Yes, spoke about this in the LR thread. While I expect February to be cold/stormy all the way through...March is still a question mark but I am favoring a pattern break down and above normal temps. at the moment.

Just excited at the possibility of some Spring in the air. Im not a fan of winter past February...Give me a crazy Dec, Jan ,and Feb and then spring...

by **Math23x7** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

Not this snow weenie.

In your case I didn't think so Snow Man, probably not in mine either. I don't ever remember being sick of snow in 95/96 and we had 120 inches. Of course we didn't get 90 of it in one month either.

CP, didn't you mention how in March 1994 after the brutal winter, you were excited for spring?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:41 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

Not this snow weenie.

In your case I didn't think so Snow Man, probably not in mine either. I don't ever remember being sick of snow in 95/96 and we had 120 inches. Of course we didn't get 90 of it in one month either.

CP, didn't you mention how in March 1994 after the brutal winter, you were excited for spring?

If I did say that, like Brian Williams I must have misremebered.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

Not this snow weenie.

In your case I didn't think so Snow Man, probably not in mine either. I don't ever remember being sick of snow in 95/96 and we had 120 inches. Of course we didn't get 90 of it in one month either.

CP, didn't you mention how in March 1994 after the brutal winter, you were excited for spring?

If I did say that, like Brian Williams I must have misremebered.

Ha!

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:46 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No I know that, jut verbatim on that run, hate them, except for my family which the majority live up there so I get first hand accounts and its tough.

They have to be sick of it.

They had 5 inches of snow for the season by the middle of January and now they're about to break their all time seasonal snowfall record from just the snow they've had in the last month. That could wear out the most die hard snow weenie.

Not this snow weenie.

In your case I didn't think so Snow Man, probably not in mine either. I don't ever remember being sick of snow in 95/96 and we had 120 inches. Of course we didn't get 90 of it in one month either.

CP, didn't you mention how in March 1994 after the brutal winter, you were excited for spring?

Can this be true, you excited for the arrival of Spring ! Say it isn't so ! Sad

by **Math23x7** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:55 pm

CP, I just Googled "CPcantmeasuresnow" March 1994 spring and I found it. On January 7th, 2014 at 10:15 PM (CPK got down to 4 degrees that morning) you said this:

Doc and mugs. As a snow lover there are not many times that I wish for winter to end but by the end of the march 94 I remember I couldn't wait for spring.

Here is the link: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t178p135-severe-arctic-blast-flash-freeze-1-6-1-7

Personally, as much as I have a passion for snow, once we get to mid-March, I just want warmer weather.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:59 pm

Math23x7 wrote:CP, I just Googled "CPcantmeasuresnow" March 1994 spring and I found it. On January 7th, 2014 at 10:15 PM (CPK got down to 4 degrees that morning) you said this:

Doc and mugs. As a snow lover there are not many times that I wish for winter to end but by the end of the march 94 I remember I couldn't wait for spring.

Here is the link: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t178p135-severe-arctic-blast-flash-freeze-1-6-1-7

Personally, as much as I have a passion for snow, once we get to mid-March, I just want warmer weather.

Google is a scary place.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:CP, I just Googled "CPcantmeasuresnow" March 1994 spring and I found it. On January 7th, 2014 at 10:15 PM (CPK got down to 4 degrees that morning) you said this:

Doc and mugs. As a snow lover there are not many times that I wish for winter to end but by the end of the march 94 I remember I couldn't wait for spring.

Here is the link: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t178p135-severe-arctic-blast-flash-freeze-1-6-1-7

Personally, as much as I have a passion for snow, once we get to mid-March, I just want warmer weather.

Google is a scary place.

Wow, isn't it the truth Frank.

Amazing Mike, great memory. I'd say I was drunk when I wrote that but I barely drink.

I guess I better start deleting everything I wrote in the OTI thread or I may be taken away by the men in white suits someday.

by **Grselig** Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:55 pm

Hope this image posts. I found Frosty in a bad way when I came home. I guess he is sick of no snow as well. Poor kid. Anyway, if I did not do it correctly, its of a Frosty fallen to the ground. i added a bottle of Baileys and Jameson

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:53 pm

These images out of Boston are stunning. Baffling.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/please-stop-snowing?bftw&utm_term=4ldqpfp&s=mobile#4ldqpfp

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:56 pm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:56 pm

Weve been mostly in a winter where the storms always hit too far south, north, east or west.. Leading to nuisance to moderate snowfall depending on track. This upcoming storm looks to follow the trend.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:48 am

You know its been cold when its 15*F with almost no wind and your 6yr old says Daddy it feels warm today. It might not be able to snow. My future winter weather weenie cheers

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:53 am

I know the feeling Doc. I walked the dog just as the sun came over the hills. It was -4 with no wind and it really was not bad at all. It's what you get use to it, and we adapt pretty quickly. Wind of course is the game changer.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:12 am

RB great stuff posted in long range but as I said yesterday to those who live run to run that I am not getting into this until 12Z tomorrow at the earliest. Not bashing anyone here but haven't we learned our lessons this winter? Less amplified storms, those that were to cut became coastals, coastals that were to crush bump east, those system to drop minimal liquid over perform, cold air that was to be eroded hung tough and caused major icing conditions(god forbid we call it what is was an ice storm) or more snow. I am saying that this winter up until the storm and even now casting has not turned out the way it was forecasted 48, 36 ,24 or even 6 hours before it happened. Let's sit back, learn and look at the set up in the atmosphere. One thing I have learned this winter and Frank has pointed this out as well as has Scott, Rb and Al as well as some others, things are going to change and sometimes on a dime even whilst the storm is happening. This winter is far from textbook and I am not for one buying what the models are showing at his point - one is almost a torch had 50 now down to low 40's (gfs) and the others have blown chow all winter in my book but then again the weather is the weather.

I am not going to complain because it has been a blast tracking all of these storms somewhat disappointing since I feel like I have been stuck in the middle again but I am patient and my time and storm will come, if not so be it. The thrill of forecasting, racking and blogging is awesome and sharing it with my fellow weather weenies on this board is bar none.

by carvin1079 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:01 pm

Honestly nyc besides the cold temps nothing more than maybe another 4" getting ready for spring its over I know some still have hope but hope only takes us so far

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