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Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:00 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So I do not get it upton has southern CT and most of LI under blizzard warnings, and a small area including NYC western LI and westchester with only a WWA, yet still has the wind criteria of 55mph giusts for a high wind watch (yet just to west now have a warning).  Is there any chance they decide to change things today and give us a blizzard warning/HWW further west and I also see they lowered snow from 3-7 to 3-5 (might that go up later?).  Are they just playing it safe because of what happened before, seems like the area that didn't see Juno much is getting taken very lightly for this, or is it just going to have a big hole in the middle where theres a ton of wind to the west and east and all heavy snow to east.  I don't get it someone please tell me this will change and NWS in upton is taking it too cautiously.
It's simple NYC won't meet criteria for blizzard and may not for WSW.

thats not really an explanation as to why but okay i will leave it at that.  Just seems conditions will be awful similar in the actual description of the WWA (slightly less snow for now), but its okay, and hoping this is a good storm for us too.
I think it is, the nws gives advisories out based on forecasts. Id the forecasts meets criteria of a advisory, they go up. If they don't they don't it's simple. Nyc won't meet criteria for a blizzard warning and most likely won't reach WSW criteria. That's why they have the advisories that are up. If something in the short term changes the forecast they can upgrade them

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:01 am

actually NWS did not change their snow map, I never really understood them sometimes but its just the way they work, I am headed to observation thread its now time to just watch and wait, either be surprised or not, hopefully the first.
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Post by Taffy Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:05 am

I was downgraded from a WWatch to an WWA. Here's why....I don't meet the criteria for a "true" blizzard.

This from Wonderground Weather:* Hazard types...snow...strong winds and blowing snow...with near
blizzard conditions.....Operative word here is "near" blizzad conditions.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:07 am

12z NAM looks nice.

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne_f22

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:07 am

Yeah its all cut offs to criteria just like grades in school a 89 is near a A. I havent read their discussion today which I am gonna do right now.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:08 am

Check out where it sets up inverted trough. Over LI into southern NY

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:09 am

Qpf

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f30

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:09 am

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really hoping for more than 2or 3 inches I know it's wishful thinking but I feel I can get some more with this storm
Still like 2-4 for us...


Yeah I know still no change was hoping for a tad more maybe Will see
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Post by mmanisca Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:13 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Check out where it sets up inverted trough. Over LI into southern NY

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21


Hey Frank that .5 is right over me in Deer Park!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:14 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Qpf

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f30

the models have been quite good on where that strip sets up so close yet so for from that .5-.75 amount, hoping we really get into that band .5 is still good and since I ma so close to the .5+ am thinking higher of the .25-.5, Frank u courting the NAM again lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:15 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Qpf

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f30

Wow, unless your area gets under the inverted trough, no surprise there you guys have been telling us that for days, big bust potential for some areas on totals, especially east if that verified.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:31 am

this is a very good graphic explaining the different reasons for the forecasts.  But as frank and ace did explain now i realize that we around nyc fall just short of blizzard and or high wind warning criteria and WSW, at this time.

http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/facebook/facebook1.png
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:36 am

No more models. Time to nowcast

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:24 am

IF the Not A Model verifies LI from the Queens border out to Riverhead (sroc4's area and mine) are in line for between .5 and .75 qpf. At 15:1 that means 8 to 10" area wide.

Hope it's true!!!

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:20 am

The Latest HRRR Shows two waves of Snows.


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