Re: Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:57 am

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So I do not get it upton has southern CT and most of LI under blizzard warnings, and a small area including NYC western LI and westchester with only a WWA, yet still has the wind criteria of 55mph giusts for a high wind watch (yet just to west now have a warning). Is there any chance they decide to change things today and give us a blizzard warning/HWW further west and I also see they lowered snow from 3-7 to 3-5 (might that go up later?). Are they just playing it safe because of what happened before, seems like the area that didn't see Juno much is getting taken very lightly for this, or is it just going to have a big hole in the middle where theres a ton of wind to the west and east and all heavy snow to east. I don't get it someone please tell me this will change and NWS in upton is taking it too cautiously.
It's simple NYC won't meet criteria for blizzard and may not for WSW.

thats not really an explanation as to why but okay i will leave it at that. Just seems conditions will be awful similar in the actual description of the WWA (slightly less snow for now), but its okay, and hoping this is a good storm for us too.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:00 am

Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is far from textbook. It's a giant flip of a coin like the title of this thread says. Every forecaster has something different. Ace is right.

Understood, but isn't this area and LI and southern CT all determined by the same upton office? So they all agree presumably on what decision they made. It is a flip of a coin I do realize its a nowcast, thats just nail biting but i guess we will know soon enough, will it be okay to be out until this evening or even after over here?

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:00 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So I do not get it upton has southern CT and most of LI under blizzard warnings, and a small area including NYC western LI and westchester with only a WWA, yet still has the wind criteria of 55mph giusts for a high wind watch (yet just to west now have a warning). Is there any chance they decide to change things today and give us a blizzard warning/HWW further west and I also see they lowered snow from 3-7 to 3-5 (might that go up later?). Are they just playing it safe because of what happened before, seems like the area that didn't see Juno much is getting taken very lightly for this, or is it just going to have a big hole in the middle where theres a ton of wind to the west and east and all heavy snow to east. I don't get it someone please tell me this will change and NWS in upton is taking it too cautiously.
It's simple NYC won't meet criteria for blizzard and may not for WSW.

thats not really an explanation as to why but okay i will leave it at that. Just seems conditions will be awful similar in the actual description of the WWA (slightly less snow for now), but its okay, and hoping this is a good storm for us too.

I think it is, the nws gives advisories out based on forecasts. Id the forecasts meets criteria of a advisory, they go up. If they don't they don't it's simple. Nyc won't meet criteria for a blizzard warning and most likely won't reach WSW criteria. That's why they have the advisories that are up. If something in the short term changes the forecast they can upgrade them

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:01 am

actually NWS did not change their snow map, I never really understood them sometimes but its just the way they work, I am headed to observation thread its now time to just watch and wait, either be surprised or not, hopefully the first.

by **Taffy** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:05 am

I was downgraded from a WWatch to an WWA. Here's why....I don't meet the criteria for a "true" blizzard.

This from Wonderground Weather:* Hazard types...snow...strong winds and blowing snow...with near
blizzard conditions.....Operative word here is "near" blizzad conditions.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:07 am

12z NAM looks nice.

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne_f22

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:07 am

Yeah its all cut offs to criteria just like grades in school a 89 is near a A. I havent read their discussion today which I am gonna do right now.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:08 am

Check out where it sets up inverted trough. Over LI into southern NY

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 7 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:09 am

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:09 am

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really hoping for more than 2or 3 inches I know it's wishful thinking but I feel I can get some more with this storm
Still like 2-4 for us...

Yeah I know still no change was hoping for a tad more maybe Will see

by **mmanisca** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:13 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Check out where it sets up inverted trough. Over LI into southern NY

Hey Frank that .5 is right over me in Deer Park!!

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Qpf

the models have been quite good on where that strip sets up so close yet so for from that .5-.75 amount, hoping we really get into that band .5 is still good and since I ma so close to the .5+ am thinking higher of the .25-.5, Frank u courting the NAM again lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:15 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Qpf

Wow, unless your area gets under the inverted trough, no surprise there you guys have been telling us that for days, big bust potential for some areas on totals, especially east if that verified.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:31 am

this is a very good graphic explaining the different reasons for the forecasts. But as frank and ace did explain now i realize that we around nyc fall just short of blizzard and or high wind warning criteria and WSW, at this time.

http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/facebook/facebook1.png

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:36 am

No more models. Time to nowcast

by Guest Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:24 am

IF the Not A Model verifies LI from the Queens border out to Riverhead (sroc4's area and mine) are in line for between .5 and .75 qpf. At 15:1 that means 8 to 10" area wide.

Hope it's true!!!

by **Joe Snow** Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:20 am

The Latest HRRR Shows two waves of Snows.

HRRR

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