February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

algae888 wrote:Ace anyone who gets .3 liquid equivalent is going to get 4 to 6 inches of snow

If you believe they'll get that much

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Ace anyone who gets .3 liquid equivalent is going to get 4 to 6 inches of snow

If you believe they'll get that much

ace I believe you will get that. I think nyc .2 orange rockland counties.1. so 1 to 6" from nw to se imo

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Ace anyone who gets .3 liquid equivalent is going to get 4 to 6 inches of snow

If you believe they'll get that much

ace I believe you will get that. I think nyc .2 orange rockland counties.1. so 1 to 6" from nw to se imo

I agree with that. Solid call

I have not had a lot of time today but still plan to put out an update around 7-7:30. A quick glance at the models and to be honest not much has changed since yesterday. I may not even change my snowfall map. We'll see.

jimv45 wrote:this is not going to be a big deal really for most people  and i think it goes even more south lets move on!

Why some people do live in the 4-8 range on Franks snow map and are very interested in this storm

High clouds increasing.Good luck with the storm everybody S and E of NYC, enjoy it! I'm on far northern fringe up here maybe one inch,LOL!

Oh, also NYC area too, you get that 2 to 4.

I didn't mean it that way I just don't think it will be that bad not thinking 4-8 more like 2-4 that's my opinion but i want you guys to do well and get good snows!!!

yea docs thinking snow showers you might get a dusting hey lets hope it comes north but our friends down south haven't got that much so hopefully get some!

I still have a suspicion that this little storm is going to cause more problems for a big part of NJ than a lot of the super-hyped storms before it. If this comes in around midnight and we get a steady snow, maybe even a heavy band or two around 6-8 am before it ends, it will cause havoc with the morning commute. It doesn't take a foot of snow in a densely populated area like this to cause problems. I've seen a brief snow squall come through at rush hour that only amounted to a couple inches turn I-295 into a parking lot. Timing is everything.

SREF Plumes at BLM put the mean over 7 inches and only 4 members below 5 inches. I would think anyone south of 195 has a good shot at getting around 5 inches or so.

Biggin23 wrote:SREF Plumes at BLM put the mean over 7 inches and only 4 members below 5 inches. I would think anyone south of 195 has a good shot at getting around 5 inches or so.

They have remained pretty consistent too. Interesting.

I been following Frank since the old 7 weather chat board along with a couple others... and the websites name is NJ STRONG WEATHER I thought

Yes, this forum is not strictly NYC based. I enjoy tracking for SNJ as well and I do feel they're in for a pretty good winter storm. At least 5"

This includes eastern PA

Frank_Wx wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:SREF Plumes at BLM put the mean over 7 inches and only 4 members below 5 inches. I would think anyone south of 195 has a good shot at getting around 5 inches or so.

They have remained pretty consistent too. Interesting.

They have been extremely consistent for about two days now. I'm hoping to get five or so here in Jackson!

Not sure if it matters, but the NAM may have nudged a hair north. Everyone south of 195 still does well with most in the 6 inch plus areas on the snowfall maps.

Biggin23 wrote:Not sure if it matters, but the NAM may have nudged a hair north. Everyone south of 195 still does well with most in the 6 inch plus areas on the snowfall maps.

Huh? Looks like only 2-4 for most south of 195 on the snow maps.

Am I looking at the wrong thing?

And the NAM actually looks more south.

snow247 wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Not sure if it matters, but the NAM may have nudged a hair north. Everyone south of 195 still does well with most in the 6 inch plus areas on the snowfall maps.

Huh? Looks like only 2-4 for most south of 195 on the snow maps.

Am I looking at the wrong thing?

Yeah most south of I-195 is in the six plus shading.... The link below is total accumulated over the next 24 hours.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=024

18z NAM QPF



2-4" for NYC, 4-6" from CNJ south

Is that map based on 10:1 ratios

Wish that darker green would come north a little

Hires NAM brings the 0.10-0.25 shade up into Rockland/Northern Westchester and SWCT. Correct me if I'm wrong, but with ratios that's like 3 or 4 inches.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Is that map based on 10:1 ratios

I don't know for sure, but I think most are based off 10:1

Biggin23 wrote:

snow247 wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:Not sure if it matters, but the NAM may have nudged a hair north. Everyone south of 195 still does well with most in the 6 inch plus areas on the snowfall maps.

Huh? Looks like only 2-4 for most south of 195 on the snow maps.

Am I looking at the wrong thing?

Yeah most south of I-195 is in the six plus shading.... The link below is total accumulated over the next 24 hours.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=024

Oh sorry, I use wxbell and the snow map shows less on there.

Snow has advanced into DC. Reporting Light Snow 18*. Ashburn VA has Light Snow 18*. So that puts the leading edge about 6 hours or so away. Also, the northern edge of the main precipitation shield has moved slowly and modestly north during the day from the Ohio-KY border into central Ohio. Columbus OH now has Light Snow and Morgantown WV near the PA border has moderate Snow. I don't see this thing going south of what the models have shown. Maybe when it hits the coast a small jog north, but further south than expected I don't think so.

On the radar looks like the snow is finally trying to bust its way across the Mason-Dixon line in western PA from Ohio and W.VA.