Official Long Range Thread 6.0

[docstox12]

KOD

[SNOW MAN]

Good morning Doc and Cp. The Mets out at Penn State talked about this Tuesday event in their extended forecast last night at 5:45pm. They said that the GOM would open up for about 36 hours to give us some moisture, BUT it would probably start as snow and go over to a "SLOP FEST" from EPA to NY. Doesn't that just figure. They said it would have to be watched because right now it's just to early to make a forecast.
Cp, you got me curious. So I looked at my forecast for Tues. and Weds. from TWC and their calling for snow showers for Tues 1in acc. and Weds. 1-3in. acc. I have no faith in that forecast.

[jmanley32]

Doc, I don't know why but I just checked TWC online for next Tuesday through Wednesday, and they have a total of  12-20 inches for us in those days. Tuesday morning 1-3, night 5-8, Wed 1-3 day night 5-8.

Anyone want to bet me that doesn't happen, and even if it did over 48 hours? I doubt it but, but that's what computer generated forecasts get you.

CP similar for me next week, but daytime is ice and rain but night time tues is 5-8 and wed night 3-5. Be nice but this is solely based off the GFS and I put no stock in it this far out.

[jmanley32]

Well wowwee lookie euro for next week, check banter ill post map, will it verify I sooo hope so but 7-8 days out pfff.

[Frank_Wx]

I'll leave the model threads to tracking the weekend storm. The storm early next week is looking pretty good, especially for inland areas and those north of NYC. Immediate coast, including eastern NJ, NYC, LI this will be another thread the needle event with possible ice/rain getting thrown into the picture.



The 00z EURO OP had a large coastal system producing heavy snow amounts inland and high ice accretions along the coast. There is more blocking to work with here than the weekend system thanks to higher heights into Nova Scotia. The surface low is going to form in the southeast and then track up the coast once it phases with the northern stream energy. As has been the case this winter, too much phasing and we would likely see this system cut to our west and try to transfer energy off our coast. We all know what that would mean for NYC Metro, with more snow-ice-rain and predominately snow for those N&W of NYC.

However, I do not think we'll see a solution like that this time. It looks like the western ridge once again is going to be challenged to amplify so we're going to be reliant on the -EPO to drive the northern stream energy into the eastern CONUS. In my opinion, this favors more of a partial phase with the southern stream energy or just a southern stream driven system. In this instance, the more progressive flow would try to keep the coastal low offshore and not so much inland. The EURO OP did not have a phase. The mid-level trough elongated and the H5 energy was all strung out from north to south along the EC.

The GFS looks the same at H5 but at the surface it is a little warmer than the EURO. Right now, I would favor inland snows and coastal snow to ice/rain. The lack of dynamics may make it difficult for the cold air to get all the way to the coast. Plenty of time to see how this evolves. A high to the north would be a game changer. We'll see.

[Guest]

Couldn't stay away till after lunch

Nice write up Frank.

2 Things

1-Sounds like this time the lack of an amplified western ridge might help us with this storm by keeping it offshore and colder.
2-The cold air shouldn't have to make it to the coast, it's already here.  We/You have been talking about the historic cold for Sat/Sun here for awhile now.  Cold that deep will be locked in and hard to scour out.  Rain seems impossible only 2 days later no??

[Frank_Wx]

Couldn't stay away till after lunch

Nice write up Frank.

2 Things

1-Sounds like this time the lack of an amplified western ridge might help us with this storm by keeping it offshore and colder.
2-The cold air shouldn't have to make it to the coast, it's already here.  We/You have been talking about the historic cold for Sat/Sun here for awhile now.  Cold that deep will be locked in and hard to scour out.  Rain seems impossible only 2 days later no??

Your first point is correct, good job.

Here is the answer to your second point:

A southern stream driven system, which is what this is looking like, develops out of the southeast. The surface low usually forms near the Gulf of Mexico or along the Gulf coast. The southeast this winter has been pretty warm for the most part. Sea surface temps in the GOM are running above normal. Whenever a southern stream driven system tracks north, it brings along with it the tropical air mass. The only way to combat the tropical air mass is to have a High to our north re-supplying us with arctic air. So far, that has not been showing up on the models. Another way to combat warm mid-layers is for the storm to manufacture its own cold air. That also does not look to happen with this system since the ridge is collapsing and a phase with the northern stream energy does not look likely.

Plenty of time for change so I'll keep an eye out.

But yes, as frustrating as it seems, we can go from record cold on Monday to rain/ice with temps in the 30's/40's by Wednesday.

[Guest]

But yes, as frustrating as it seems, we can go from record cold on Monday to rain/ice with temps in the 30's/40's by Wednesday.

If this happens, and we miss out on Sat/Sun I think you'll have mass rage and suicidal thoughts (figuratively speaking) amongst most members of this forum!!!

[Frank_Wx]

But yes, as frustrating as it seems, we can go from record cold on Monday to rain/ice with temps in the 30's/40's by Wednesday.

If this happens, and we miss out on Sat/Sun I think you'll have mass rage and suicidal thoughts (figuratively speaking) amongst most members of this forum!!!

I hope not. This is why I find weather so fascinating and why I go crazy when Godzilla-type storms come to fruition in our area. It is not easy at all to get snow into our area, especially significant amounts. That is why we average around 25". Most of us are pretty much at that average, or will be after next week. So much has to go right and not many people realize that. Humble, for sure.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, the 12z GFS is saying the western ridge will NOT collapse and might be trying to show a Miller A this run. Lets see..

[Frank_Wx]

This is such a great look with both northern and southern stream energies coming together over the east with a large ridge pumping in the west

[Frank_Wx]

The phase is not there yet but the coastal low is already offshore enough to keep most of us snow. Lets see if a phase can blow this baby up

[Frank_Wx]

YUP! Here's the phase. 992mb right on the BM



This is for Tuesday night into Wednesday by the way. And I have liked this set up much better than this weekend

[Guest]

Giddy up Frank.. You just caused 5 more days worth of tracking/model madness. It's like crack!!

[docstox12]

This is such a great look with both northern and southern stream energies coming together over the east with a large ridge pumping in the west

Now THAT'S what I have been waiting to see all winter long, not just this northern stream energy stuff.Gotta get the Gulf involved for the big snowstorms up here.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Anyone have a snow map for Tuesday/Wednesday from the GFS? It looks like the HV gets crushed on that run.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO is snowy next week. No phase. Just an elongated southern stream but we're on the left side of the baroclinic zone

[Frank_Wx]

[rb924119]

Yeah we mis out again in PA on that run ahahaha You guys get it in NYC and the coastal plain. Now, the recent trend with this system has been slightly south and east from prior runs; will that hold, or do we revert back to what the norm has been this season, north and west? Only time will answer that. What's interesting to me is that this actually looks like it develops on the tail end of a frontal boundary originating from a system by Hudson Bay. If that is the case, then that front holds the key; too fast, and it goes OTS, but too slow and guess what, our friends in northern NY state get the goods.

[rb924119]

And that is also why it ends up as an elongated wave, rather than a true cyclone. If this holds, there will be a very sharp western edge to this, since it will essentially be the front itself.

[jimv45]

its way to early even to talk about where this thing goes but i am very excited on this one!!

[amugs]

Either scenario I will gladly take at this stage. Nice HP to the North and Euro brings eh cold air in after the Storm next week!

[jmanley32]

This one loomks promising almost all euro ensembles on board for quite a bit of snow, still over 96 hrs so will not mention how much but looks juicy and if sat does not happen I will not be so upset because this one looks even more promising and the southern storms are better for us. NWS has 70% chance snow sat/sat night, which is pretty high, and already 40/50 for mon night/tues. This winter has not turned out half bad compared to where we thought it was headed even aqt the get together.

[amugs]

Back loaded weak Nino winter peeps 78-79 said it before and I just said it again!

Love the look of the Tuesday night wednesday storm holy cow !!!!

[lglickman1]

You love the look at it for the whole area or N&W?

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